USCFootball.com - Pac-12 Preview: Picking the winners

August 29, 2012

Tom Haire
Special to USCFootball.com

The 12th Annual 'Picking the Winners' Pac-12 Preview

Well, that first go-round with the whole conference championship game thing wasn't too embarrassing, was it Larry Scott? I mean, having a team that would end the year with a 6-8 record play in such a "championship" contest thanks to your own inability to take a stand against the corrupt NCAA was clearly better than the possible ignominy of having a bowl-ineligible team wrap the season with an 11-2 mark while still sending an excellent division champion to the Rose Bowl - right? Just like having that same replacement team lobby to become the worst bowl team in the history of college football lose to Illinois in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl to finish 6-8 wasn't embarrassing - right?

So it went in the historic inaugural year of Pac-12 football, as a UCLA team fresh off a 50-0 thrashing at the hands of South Division winner (but sanctioned) USC - with a dead-man-walking coach in Rick Neuheisel - was sent into a rat's nest at Autzen Stadium to be embarrassed by an Oregon team that, under the circumstances, would have been better served taking the week off and being deemed the default conference champions, thanks to its undisputed North Division crown. (This analysis, of course, leaves out the perception issue that the league faced - somewhat unfairly - for matching a pair of teams that 10-2 USC had just defeated in the preceding two weeks.)

The good news for Scott and those in the conference's Bay Area headquarters is that 2012 kicks off with two Pac-12 teams - USC and Oregon, again - ranked in just about every pre-season top-5 you can find. And, with Stanford expected to remain strong, Washington hoping to take the next step back into the conference's elite, and a series of intriguing coaching hires breathing life into programs from Pullman to Tucson, there is much to like about this season as it gets underway.

Add to that the debut of the new Pac-12 Networks (aside from its early sound issues - and lack of a deal with DirecTV, at press time), and the conference should gain plenty of expanded exposure. Of course, with the always-reliable NCAA slogging along in its investigation of Willie Lyles and Oregon, all of these good vibes could still explode and leave Scott faced with a second consecutive tainted conference title game on Nov. 30.

With this as the background, I'll remind you that 11 seasons ago, I decided to simply sit down with the conference's composite schedule and make preseason picks of each and every game played by a conference club this year. In my years of writing this piece (three times for PigskinPost.com, once for CollegeFootballNews.com and, the past seven seasons, for USCFootball.com), I've gotten harsher reviews than Paul Ryan's Medicare plan at a senior center in Boca Raton. I've also put together a record I am pretty proud of: 629 wins, 211 losses - a .749 winning percentage, including a 71-20 mark in 2011.

Though one season gave us all a better read on how Utah and Colorado fit into the conference's football hierarchy, the Pac-12 remains an incredibly difficult conference to gauge, especially in positions four through 11. One can make a case that, outside of USC and Oregon at the top and Colorado at the bottom, all of the other teams could easily beat any of the others in a given week.

So - as always - I invite you to settle in and grab an adult beverage. Here it comes once again … odd scores, blowouts, nail-biters, upsets and all - the 2012 Pac-12 game-by-game preview.

Week One - September 1
Game of the Week
Washington State at BYU (Thurs., August 30)
With a pretty weak slate in the opening week, there's no reason not to single out the bowing of Wazzu's Mike Leach Era. Intriguingly, Leach brings his pass-first/pass-last brand of football to Provo, where he earned a BA in American Studies in 1983. The Cougs', with quarterback Jeff Tuel and receiver Marquess Wilson - perhaps the conference's best pass catcher not on the USC roster - are expected to take quickly to Leach's style on offense. WSU's problem, though, is still on defense. And opening against BYU, a 10-game winner in four of the past five seasons, and quarterback Riley Nelson, is a tough task. BYU 38, Washington State 34

Game of the Weak
Utah vs. Northern Colorado (Thurs., August 30) or Oregon State vs. Nicholls State
I've long been on record as saying that a BCS-conference school should never, under any circumstances, schedule an FCS opponent. That doesn't change, and I will point out all games in 2012 where a Pac-12 school lowers itself well below the bar of acceptability. Not only are Northern Colorado and Nicholls State FCS schools, but they were two of the worst teams in the division a season ago. Utah faces a Bears' team coming off a 0-11 season (the school's first winless campaign since 1920), while the Beavers host a Colonels squad that finished 1-10 a year ago. Of course, Oregon State can't be wholly trusted after flubbing their FCS opener a season ago, losing to Sacramento State, 29-28, in overtime. Are the Beavers looking for lower-tier redemption? Utah 38, Northern Colorado 0 and Oregon State 45, Nicholls State 10

The Rest
UCLA 28, Rice 7 (Thurs., August 30)
The Jim Mora Era gets underway in Houston, as UCLA's Johnathan Franklin runs roughshod over the Owls' undersized and vulnerable 4-2-5 defense.

California 35, Nevada 17
The Bears open the newly refurbished Memorial Stadium with a win over the pesky Wolfpack.

Arizona 31, Toledo 13
Arizona State 38, Northern Arizona 14 (Thurs., August 30 - FCS opponent)
Colorado 24, Colorado State 17
Oregon 52, Arkansas State 10
Stanford 42, San Jose State 7
USC 49, Hawaii 13
Washington 45, San Diego State 20

Week Two - September 8
Game of the Week
UCLA vs. Nebraska
Interestingly, though UCLA's struggles throughout the last decade have been well documented, this type of game - early September, traditional football power opponent, at the Rose Bowl - has been when the Bruins play their best. Even Neuheisel benefited from this peculiarity when the Bruins toppled then-ranked Tennessee in his first season. Expect a solid performance from redshirt freshman QB Brett Hundley, but the Huskers have been exposed to such early season challenges in recent seasons, and Taylor Martinez is likely to make enough to plays to hold off UCLA. Nebraska 31, UCLA 24

Game of the Weak
Colorado vs. Sacramento State
A season ago, eight conference teams scheduled games against FCS opponents (Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, Washington and Washington State). Those eight are back in the mix this year, while Colorado joins them this week by hosting the Hornets. Is the conference's worst team a year ago a match for the team that toppled Oregon State (but won only three of 10 against lower-division opponents) in 2011? Colorado 35, Sacramento State 16

The Rest
Oklahoma State 30, Arizona 20
The Wildcats have been pounded by the Cowboys in each of the past two seasons. Sure, Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon are gone, and this is the first Tucson meeting. But how far, how fast can Rich Rodriguez bring Arizona?

LSU 31, Washington 17
Similarly, how fast can the Washington defense really get up to speed under new coordinator Justin Wilcox? This trip to Baton Rouge will provide an early barometer, with mixed results. The usually reliable Husky offense turns it over three times in LSU territory, and the Tigers are able to pound UW on the ground in the second half.

Arizona State 26, Illinois 24
California 44, Southern Utah 10 (FCS opponent)
Oregon 49, Fresno State 14
Wisconsin 29, Oregon State 17
Stanford 38, Duke 13
USC 41, Syracuse 20 (at East Rutherford, N.J.)
Utah 27, Utah State 13
Washington State 42, Eastern Washington 14 (FCS opponent)

Week Three - September 15
Game of the Week
Stanford vs. USC
The Cardinal own a three-game winning streak over USC, including a last-second field goal victory on the Farm in 2010 and last season's triple-OT win in Los Angeles. You can bet that the Trojans have this one circled on their calendars, especially after intriguing clock work by the officials has favored the Cardinal in the closing moments of both games. With Andrew Luck finally gone, Matt Barkley takes advantage of a green Stanford secondary in Palo Alto to offset a powerful performance from Cardinal RB Stepfan Taylor. USC 38, Stanford 27

Game of the Weak
Arizona vs. South Carolina State
This pick was a clear toss-up with Oregon's FCS barnburner against Tennessee Tech. However, the Ducks had not one, but two, FBS teams cancel on them this season to put them in the position of hosting the Golden Eagles - still not an acceptable excuse, but enough of one to leave the Cats' holding the Weak honors of the week. Arizona 41, South Carolina State 14

The Rest
Utah 31, BYU 21
Could this be the penultimate battle in a rivalry that dates to 1922? If Utah AD Chris Hill has his way, it very well could be. And though the scheduling intricacies of the nine-league-game Pac-12 make keeping non-conference rivalries alive that much tougher, if USC and Notre Dame can find a way to travel 2/3 of the way across the country each year, I'm guessing the Utes and Cougars can manage to work out a 45-minute drive in the near future.

Ohio State 35, California 17
The Bears are the first Pac-12 school to get a look at the Urban Meyer-led Buckeyes in Columbus. They will also be the only Pac-12 school to see them this season as Ohio State's sanctions have removed any post-season dreams, including a Rose Bowl bid that many believe would be likely if only the Buckeyes were eligible.

Missouri 34, Arizona State 24
Colorado 20, Fresno State 17
Oregon 69, Tennessee Tech 6 (FCS opponent)
UCLA 34, Houston 14
Washington 56, Portland State 10 (FCS opponent)
Washington State 42, UNLV 20

Week Four - September 22
Game of the Week
Arizona State vs. Utah
If this game was in Salt Lake City, Utah would be the easy choice, with a solid defense clamping down on Todd Graham's inexperienced Sun Devil offense. In the Tempe heat, however, things could get interesting. Still, Utah RB John White should be able to pound away at ASU's front seven, and barring mistakes - or looking ahead to their showdown with USC two weeks hence - the Utes hold off the Devils. Utah 27, Arizona State 20

Game of the Weak
Washington State vs. Colorado
Though the Buffs are 3-0, and the Cougars have been the conference doormat for years, expect Leach to win his first conference game on the Palouse - and send Colorado to the first of what could be nine conference losses. Washington State 38, Colorado 24

The Rest
Oregon 54, Arizona 17
The Ducks' season-opening four-game homestand (Chip Kelly's got an SEC-scheduling gene, doesn't he?) comes to an end with a thrashing of the Wildcats.

UCLA 24, Oregon State 10
USC 45, California 17

Week Five - September 29
Game of the Week
Washington vs. Stanford (Thurs., September 27)
Many see this as a battle for second in the North - and a lot of folks seem to believe that Washington's offense (plus home-field advantage) give them an advantage in this showdown. While that may be true, the Husky defense must be seen as a "prove-it" crew before picking them to beat a team with as powerful a rushing attack as the Cardinal. Stanford 31, Washington 28

Game of the Weak
Arizona vs. Oregon State
Expectations for both of these teams cannot exactly be deemed "sky-high" in 2012. But, whereas the Wildcats are attempting to kick-start a rebuild with Rodriguez at the helm, the Beavers are looking to long-time headman Mike Riley and impressive sophomore QB Sean Mannion to overcome the squad's recent struggles on the fly. This game won't be a thing of beauty, and in cases like these, it's hard to pick against the home team. Arizona 27, Oregon State 19

The Rest
Oregon 48, Washington State 21 (at Seattle)
The Ducks' first "road" game is actually a neutral-site battle in Seattle, thanks to a scheduling quirk by the Cougars. The much-anticipated first meeting between Kelly and Leach produces some fireworks, but Oregon's talent is eons ahead of Wazzu's.

UCLA 30, Colorado 17
California 34, Arizona State 21

Week Six - October 6
Game of the Week
Utah vs. USC (Thurs., October 4)
ESPN national TV cameras focused on a sold-out crowd on a Thursday night, with a highly ranked USC team on the road facing an underdog opponent with a scrappy defense and a tough running back. Any Trojan fan can inform you about the last time this scenario unfolded: 2008 in Corvallis, when the Beavers rolled to a 21-0 halftime lead on their way to a 27-21 upset of then-No. 1 USC. Can White do his best Jacquizz Rodgers impression? Will Utah take advantage of sloppy USC turnovers? For a myriad of reasons, the Trojans will be fully ready for their road test at Stanford three weeks prior. And, thanks to a very tight game in the Coliseum last season against the Utes, they won't overlook this one either. But it won't be easy. USC 27, Utah 20

Game of the Weak
California vs. UCLA
How does a big-brother/little-brother rivalry work when both teams so often play with that little-brother chip on their shoulder? Often, it means extremely bitter battles that turn messy and penalty-infested. And these battles are most often won by the home team. California 31, UCLA 19

The Rest
Oregon 43, Washington 23
The Ducks continue their recent mastery of the Huskies in Eugene, much to the glee of the Autzen faithful.

Oregon State 33, Washington State 30 (OT)
Stanford 38, Arizona 24

Week Seven - October 13
Game of the Week
Washington vs. USC
Washington was saddled with one heck of a schedule to open the season. Road trips to LSU and Oregon and visits to Seattle from Stanford and USC - combined 2011 record: 46-7. Of course, this is also USC's fourth road game in its first six - something no SEC team (or, apparently, Oregon) could possibly fathom. Will the Trojans be road weary? Will the Huskies be weary of facing so many top teams so soon? The final answer: the Huskies' defense still has to prove it can stop someone. USC 37, Washington 23

Game of the Weak
Colorado vs. Arizona State
Could this be a battle to stay out of the eventual Pac-12 South cellar? Both teams hope not. The Devils, though, get a much needed road win. Arizona State 31, Colorado 14

The Rest
UCLA 23, Utah 21
The Bruins continue to play well at home, upending a Ute team that appears to be suffering from a hangover after the tough loss to USC.

California 35, Washington State 24
BYU 27, Oregon State 16
Stanford 30, Notre Dame 27

Week Eight - October 20
Game of the Week
California vs. Stanford
In a new Pac-12 scheduling oddity, "The Big Game" falls on the third Saturday in October? It's the first Battle for the Axe in the new Memorial Stadium, but the breaks again go Stanford's way. Stanford 28, California 24

Game of the Weak
USC vs. Colorado
After back-to-back road trips to conference contenders, the Trojans apparently have earned a break - without a bye. Colorado plays the patsy. USC 45, Colorado 10

The Rest
Oregon 38, Arizona State 27 Thurs., October 18
The Ducks play their first true road game of 2012. However, a Sun Devil team in transition can't take advantage of the natural miscues that often come from Oregon's maiden voyage into hostile territory.

Washington 31, Arizona 27
Utah 17, Oregon State 13

Week Nine - October 27
Game of the Week
Arizona State vs. UCLA
Are the Bruins a real threat to win the South? Can the Sun Devils finally put a full game together and get a key win for their bowl eligibility hopes? While ASU doesn't have enough in Graham's first year to upset Oregon in Tempe, they should be able to take down a UCLA squad that's taken advantage of a friendly early schedule. Arizona State 24, UCLA 20

Game of the Weak
Oregon vs. Colorado
Anyone else want to guess how badly this is going to go for CU? Oregon 63, Colorado 14

The Rest
USC 42, Arizona 17 Thurs., October 18
The Trojans' last trip outside of the greater Los Angeles area in the regular season is another possible trap game, with Oregon's visit to the Coliseum looming. However, the Wildcats are beginning to resemble the three- and four-win squads that have been the hallmark of Rodriguez's first year in most jobs.

Stanford 35, Washington State 20
Utah 30, California 17
Washington 41, Oregon State 14

Week 10 - November 3
Game of the Week
USC vs. Oregon
Do yourself a favor: re-watch last season's USC-Oregon game before you think about picking this one. Note USC's utter dominance for the first 42 minutes of the game, leading 38-14 at Autzen before DeAnthony Thomas' TD kickoff return shifted the momentum to the Ducks. USC's win wasn't nearly a fluke. Exactly what about this year's matchup has changed that seems to favor the Ducks? Perhaps Marcus Mariota will be a revelation at quarterback, or - somehow - Oregon's secondary will have improved exponentially more than Barkley, Woods and Lee? Both teams claim to have "unfinished business." But on this Saturday in the Coliseum - health (and, therefore, depth) willing, the Trojans will be the finishers. USC 42, Oregon 31

Game of the Weak
Oregon State vs. Arizona State
Frigid weather helps the Beavers win for the first time in nearly a month, as the Sun Devils' struggles for consistency continue. Oregon State 16, Arizona State 10

The Rest
California 28, Washington 27 Fri., November 2
The Bears come up with a late score on a Zach Maynard-to-Keenan Allen bomb, foiling the can't-catch-a-break Huskies, hurting UW's bowl chances.

Stanford 41, Colorado 23
UCLA 23, Arizona 13
Utah 34, Washington State 30

Week 11 - November 10
Game of the Week
Washington vs. Utah
A crucial game for the Huskies and Steve Sarkisian turns - finally - on a defensive play, as Desmond Trufant takes a pass from Ute QB Jordan Wynn 73 yards for a score early in the fourth quarter to lead UW to a win. Washington 34, Utah 21

Game of the Weak
Arizona vs. Colorado
Though much has changed in Tucson, the remnants of the 2011 team gain revenge for one of their most embarrassing defeats, dispatching the Buffaloes early in the desert. Arizona 38, Colorado 17

The Rest
Oregon 31, California 24
The Ducks suffer early from a USC hangover (see Utah earlier in the season), but are able to pull themselves together in the second half to remain tied with Stanford at the top of the North Division.

Stanford 37, Oregon State 7
USC 43, Arizona State 10
Washington State 24, UCLA 16

Week 12 - November 17
Game of the Week
Oregon vs. Stanford
Once again, the Ducks and Cardinal face off with the North Division title hanging in the balance. Once again, the Ducks' speed is too much for the Cardinal's smarts. Oregon 46, Stanford 27

Game of the Weak
Arizona State vs. Washington State
Up and down. Down and up. That's how these two teams' seasons have gone. The roller coaster continues, as the Devils get a measure of payback for the Cougs' upset on the Palouse a year ago. Arizona State 31, Washington State 27

The Rest
USC 38, UCLA 17
A year after being undressed at the Coliseum, the Bruins show a little more fight. But they don't have nearly enough to upend a Trojan team tasting perfection.

Washington 38, Colorado 21
California 31, Oregon State 14
Utah 20, Arizona 9

Week 13 - November 24
Game of the Week
USC vs. Notre Dame
A perfect regular season and a Heisman Trophy are on the line for USC against its traditional rival at the Coliseum. Matt Barkley and Co. rise to the occasion, dominating the Irish to go 10-1 in their past 11 against ND. USC 41, Notre Dame 17

Game of the Weak
Arizona vs. Arizona State Fri., November 23
The Rodriguez-Graham Era kicks off in the Territorial Cup, as Arizona knocks the Sun Devils out of a possible bowl bid in Tucson. Arizona 31, Arizona State 24

The Rest
Stanford 30, UCLA 24
The Cardinal bounce back from a tough loss to the Ducks - but just barely, as the Bruins' give them all they can handle in Pasadena.

Utah 30, Colorado 16 (Fri., November 23)
Oregon 44, Oregon State 24
Washington 35, Washington State 34 (Fri., November 23)

Week 15 - Pac-12 Championship Game
Fri., November 30
Oregon at USC
Playing for the third time in just more than a year, USC and Oregon put on a true back-and-forth classic. But with the Ducks leading by four in the final minute and looking to gain the ultimate revenge, Barkley finds tight end Xavier Grimble over the middle for a huge gain. Moments later, Silas Redd punches it in from two yards out to send USC to Miami for the BCS title game. USC 41, Oregon 38

Predicted Pac-12 Standings 2012
North Division
Oregon 11-2, 8-1
Stanford 10-2, 7-2
California 7-5, 5-4
Washington 7-5, 5-4
Washington State 4-8, 2-7
Oregon State 3-9, 2-7

South Division
USC 13-0, 9-0
Utah 9-3, 6-3
UCLA 6-6, 4-5
Arizona 5-7, 3-6
Arizona State 5-7, 3-6
Colorado 3-9, 0-9

Also going bowling for the Pac-12: Oregon, Stanford, Utah, California, Washington and UCLA.

Tom Haire has been writing for USCFootball.com for 12 years. He is the editor of a monthly trade magazine in the advertising industry. He grew up watching USC dominate the Pac-10 and the Rose Bowl and ended up a Trojan journalism school alum ('94). He's traveled from Honolulu to Palo Alto to South Bend to New York to Miami to watch college football, and has also covered the Pac-10 for both PigskinPost.com and CollegeFootballNews.com. He can be reached at thomas.haire@me.com or followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/thrants (@thrants)