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COLUMN: 23 thoughts ahead of USC's much-anticipated 2023 season

Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch will be under scrutiny by the fan base in his second year with the program.
Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch will be under scrutiny by the fan base in his second year with the program. (Jeff McCulloch/TrojanSports.com)

USC kicks off the second season of the Lincoln Riley Era today vs. San Jose State, as one of only seven games on the so-called "Week 0" schedule across college football.

A lot of eyes will be on the Trojans as the casual college football fan tunes in for a look at reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams or general curiosity about Riley's high-scoring offense.

But for USC fans, the most intriguing subplots and storylines go much deeper than that.

Can Dorian Singer replace Jordan Addison as a No. 1 wide receiver? Can fellow wideout Brenden Rice sustain his elite play from the Cotton Bowl more consistently? Is all-purpose weapon Raleek Brown ready to truly break out? How much will five-stars Zachariah Branch and Duce Robinson contribute to the offense as true freshmen? Is Mason Cobb the answer at linebacker? Are transfer pickups Bear Alexander and Kyon Barrs true difference-makers along the interior of the defensive line? Who is going to lead the team in sacks? And, of course, can defensive coordinator Alex Grinch get the job done?

Just to name a few ...

This Trojans football season is loaded with compelling questions and brimming with legitimate playoff potential, and before it kicks off let's start by sharing 23 thoughts/predictions/concerns from our TrojanSports.com team ahead of this 2023 USC football season.

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1. Forget last year, the true evaluation for Alex Grinch begins now

I'm well aware that most of the USC fan base has already made up its mind about defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, especially after the ugly finish to last season. As I've stated many times, I have stayed open-minded because there simply wasn't enough talent last year to fairly evaluate him. You don't have to agree with me, but the preponderance of evidence is pretty strong.

When USC was missing multiple linebackers due to injury late in the year, it couldn't simply replace them and keep chugging along -- the Trojans had to move star defensive lineman Tuli Tuipulotu out of position and lean on a dime package with a sixth defensive back. The interior defensive lineman who played the most snaps because there were limited alternatives -- Stanley Ta'ufo'ou -- is now part of a three-way timeshare at the position, per the depth chart. The depth at defensive end and rush end is significantly better now as well. There may not singularly be a Tuipulotu, but there's an Anthony Lucas, a Jamil Muhammad, a Romello Height and a Braylan Shelby to pair with Solomon Byrd and the other returning pass rushers. Ditto for defensive back -- even if there are still questions there based on inexperience or past struggles, there are at least options. So many that there's now a legit logjam at safety, where even the third-stringers -- Zion Branch and Christian Pierce -- hold significant intrigue and upside.

Grinch will get his evaluation this year. It may be good, it may be bad, but either way it should be based on this season when he actually has the talent and depth to fully function.

-Ryan Young

2. This will be a breakout season for CB Ceyair Wright

Ceyair Wright’s 2022 season went a bit under the radar as the sophomore corner quietly commanded the lion’s share of snaps at the starting position across from Mekhi Blackmon, even while losing playing time down the stretch to Jacobe Covington.

While the statistical production was nothing special (1 interception and 2 passes broken up), I felt Wright was consistently sticky in coverage as he rarely gave up much separation. Though he struggled to consistently make plays at the catch point, he got better at getting his eyes around and getting in position to disrupt the catch as the season went on.

He’s got the requisite size and quicks, and by all accounts has reached another level in practice leading into this season. Wright is also an underrated tackler. He’s got no fear to go after ball-carriers with aggression, and though he’s not a big hitter, you’ll rarely ever see him miss a tackle thanks to his textbook form as he consistently strikes low and wraps up. Don't be surprised if Wright has a true breakout season.

-Tajwar Khandaker

3. Jonah Monheim will earn deserved first-team All-Pac-12 status after 2022 snub

Jonah Monheim not being voted first-team All-Pac-12 last season -- he was an honorable mention selection -- was absurd. Monheim had a breakout season and had the ninth-best season grade from PFF (81.9) of any full-time offensive tackle in college football. He also played more snaps than any player ahead of him on that list.

He was again snubbed in the Pac-12 preseason vote, landing on the second-team, but by the end of this season Monheim will be recognized as one of the best linemen in the conference as he moves from right to left tackle for the Trojans.

While center Justin Dedich is the outspoken leader of the unit, Monheim lets his performance on the field do the talking. If there was a critique to make last year, he had a problem at times with the speed rush and overpowering defensive linemen, but as he has done throughout his career he is getting better and better. If he can take yet another step in his development, he can be one of the best linemen in the country, let alone the Pac-12.

-Jeff McCulloch

4. LB Tackett Curtis will play the most snaps of any freshman

This might have been a bolder forecast a couple weeks ago, before Tackett Curtis was officially denoted as a starter on the depth chart, but nonetheless.

It's not yet clear if Curtis is going to keep starting alongside Mason Cobb when Eric Gentry and Shane Lee are back to full capacity (after being limited in camp), but regardless, it has been made clear he's going to play a big role on this defense.

There are a number of very talented and advanced freshman on this team, but Zachariah Branch and the other young receivers face a lot of competition for snaps and will be in a rotation, while safety Christian Pierce and rush end Braylan Shelby don't have clear paths to playing time despite having strong preseasons.

Curtis is going to factor in greatly in determining whether this defense can take a step forward or not, so his continued development and comfort in the scheme will be key.

-RY

5. Speaking of which ... the Trojans will have a top-50ish defense

USC ranked 106th nationally last season in total defense, giving up 423.9 yards per game, and tied for 93rd in points allowed (29.2 per game).

Again, I understand 97.3 percent of the fan base thinks that is a direct result of Grinch, but bear with me for a quick second ...

Let's not forget, this staff took over an unmitigated disaster on defense when it was hired while inheriting only two true difference-makers on that side of the ball -- safety Calen Bullock and defensive lineman Tuli Tuipulotu. They had mere weeks to rally the 2022 recruiting class before the December signing period and one offseason to plug holes in the dam through the transfer portal. While installing a new scheme. Who exactly was expecting a miracle on that side of the ball last year? Let's be realistic.

There are no excuses this year. The depth is there, as outlined earlier. The talent is significantly better at every level of the defense. There are a number of players now entering their second year in the scheme with a heightened comfort and confidence. And the staff has had the offseason to reassess and tweak where needed.

Doesn't it just seem logical that the Trojans are a much better defense for those reasons? It does to me.

I say they have a chance to finish as close to a top-50 defense nationally. Last year, that line was 361.7 yards per game and 24.1 points per game. So we're talking about 62 yards and 5 points per game better. Seems doable to me.

No, they don't give out awards for having a slightly above average defense, but that may be all this team needs to complement what Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams are doing on the offensive side.

-RY

6. Calen Bullock will dominate this season

Safety Calen Bullock is coming off a stellar sophomore season that saw him rack up 5 interceptions and an All-American nod from PFF, and I’m inclined to think he’ll be even better this year. It was clear that Bullock was a special player from the moment he started to see the field early in his freshman season -- his length, acceleration, feel for space and patience make him an ideal archetype at the free safety position.

Few players in the country could make a case for exhibiting better range on the back end of the defense than Bullock does. He covers ground with brilliant ease and routinely sets himself up with his footwork and positioning to find the best possible angle to the ball, making him a reliable bet to make a stop no matter where a play has gone.

Against the thrown football, Bullock has been fantastic in his young career with 7 interceptions and 8 pass breakups to his name already. His ball skills make him a threat to change possession any time the ball is thrown his way, and he’ll hardly ever get beaten by a deep throw over the top.

The only area of his game that requires significant work is his tackling, and there’s every reason to believe that he’s improving over the course of the offseason. Bullock’s occasional issues as a tackler do not stem from a lack of explosive hitting power or a willingness to strike; his highlight reel of good takedowns is actually an impressive one. His problem, however, is twofold, stemming from the lack of mass on his lanky frame and his unfortunate tendency to go into the tackle far too high, often nearly upright as he tries to sling down a runner by the chest or shoulder pads as opposed to firing through the lower body.

The technique aspect of that should be very fixable in theory, and as far as the physical component of that equation, Bullock has noticeably added considerable mass. He was listed at 190 pounds in the spring, and it’s likely that he’s now closer to 200 pounds than the 183 he played at last year. That might be enough to take him from a middling tackler to a potentially very good one.

The odds are that the young safety will have improved on the few holes in his game as the fall approaches, and you shouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised to see him be the best player on this defense and a potential first-round pick in a few months’ time.

-TW

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