Matchup Breakdown: College football's passing leaders take center stage

It was part of a much longer answer to a much more complex question last weekend in the aftermath of USC's dramatic win at Cal, but Trojans coach Lincoln Riley used the Washington Huskies as an example of college football's unpredictable nature.

And it's worth revisiting his point now that the No. 20/24 Trojans (7-2, 5-1 Pac-12) play host to the unbeaten No. 5 Huskies (8-0, 5-0) Saturday afternoon (4:30 p.m. PT) inside the Coliseum.

"Week to week, you never know. If had told you last week that Washington's going to win a game at home and not score an offensive touchdown, you wouldn't have believed me. Everybody would have said, 'Ah shoot, they're the this and this offense in the country,'" Riley said.

Many may be counting the Trojans out to some degree this weekend. They're 3-point underdogs at home, but more to the point, in the last four games USC needed triple-overtime to survive Arizona, lost back-to-back games to Notre Dame and Utah and needed a pass deflection on an aggressive two-point conversion call in the final minute last Saturday to escape Cal, while giving up 49 points and 527 yards.

That was against a middling Golden Bears offense breaking in its third quarterback of the season while having its star running back sidelined for much of the game (after his dominant first half). Even more incredibly, the Trojans much-maligned defense managed to give up that many yards and points despite forcing four turnovers, which is to say ... imagine what the numbers would have been without some fortuitous plays mixed in along the way.

And while the USC defense (which ranks 111th nationally in giving up 420.9 yards per game -- but more than 480 in four of the last five games) is in the crosshairs of consternation and scrutiny every week, that beleaguered unit now goes up against a Washington team that ranks 5th nationally in total offense (501.2 yards per game) and 9th in scoring (40.4 points per game).

But there's something to Riley's point ...

Even that vaunted Huskies offense -- much like USC's offense, which is comparable in the national stat rankings -- has had its hiccups recently.

The game Riley referenced was a 15-7 Washington win at home against lowly Arizona State two weekends ago, in which the Huskies managed only three field goals and a long interception return for touchdown while putting up just 288 yards and turning it over four times.

Then, last weekend, Washington needed 14 fourth quarter points to put away another bottom-of-the-standings team in Stanford as it was a 2-point game until the Huskies padded the lead inside of the final 2 minutes to finish it off 42-33.

None of that has tainted perception as Washington landed at No. 5 in the first CFP rankings this week, but the fact remains the Huskies played their two worst games of the season against the Pac-12's two worst teams in the last two weeks.

Indeed, it's an unpredictable sport.

Then again, the problem for the Trojans is that their defense has been all too predictable and consistent in its struggles.

It would be the ultimate stunner if USC's defense ends up the story of the day Saturday, but then again, no one expected Arizona State to shut down QB Michae Penix Jr. and his arsenal of elite weapons, or for Stanford to put a scare into the Huskies as well.

"Like, every week, man, there's a lot of parity, there's a lot of back and forth, and you've got to find a way to get it done," Riley said. "So, hopefully we can keep finding a way to get it done, and with the fight we showed [at Cal] I wouldn't count us out."

Logically, though, USC is in for a shootout if it wants to shake up the national picture and remain in control of its fate in the Pac-12 championship race, and the reason nobody should count the Trojans out heading into this one is because of its offense and QB Caleb Williams.

While Williams hasn't looked in peak Heisman form at all times this season, he nonetheless ranks second nationally in passing yards with 2,646 to go with 25 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and 9 rushing touchdowns. Only the Huskies' Penix has passed for more yards -- 2,945 with 24 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.

Simply put, this has the potential to be one of the most compelling Pac-12 matchups of the season -- and one of the most intriguing QB matchups nationally this fall -- however it ends up.

"We're ready for it, man. It's a challenge we've all worked for our whole life, I think honestly," nickel Jaylin Smith said. "You work for opportunities like these to go out and compete against the best."

With that said, let's take a closer look at the Huskies ahead of kickoff Saturday at 4:30 p.m. PT (on ABC) ...

No. 5 Washington (8-0, 5-0 Pac-12) at No. 20/24 USC (7-2, 5-1)

Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

When: 4:30 p.m. PT

TV: ABC with Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit and Holly Rowe

How to stream: WatchESPN.com

Vegas spread: Washington -3

Over/under: 77.5

Coach: Kalen DeBoer, 2nd season (19-2 at UW; 98-11 career, including at Sioux Falls and Fresno State)

Record: 8-0

National rankings: No. 5 AP, No. 5 CFP, No. 5 Coaches Poll

Best wins: 36-33 vs. Oregon, 59-32 vs. Cal

Overview: USC and Washington were two of the best stories in college football last year as first-year coaches Lincoln Riley and Kalen DeBoer led dramatic immediate turnarounds for their respective programs, with both the Trojans and Huskies jumping from 4 wins to 11.

Riley was expected to produce immediate returns after his high-profile hiring while DeBoer was a more under-the-radar move by Washington and athletic director Jen Cohen, who of course is now USC's AD. DeBoer had gone 12-6 over two seasons at Fresno State (including the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign) after previously serving as the head coach at NAIA-level Sioux Falls from 2005-09 (winning three NAIA national championships) before building his resume as an offensive coordinator at Southern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Fresno State and Indiana.

When DeBoer got to Washington, he reeled in his former Hoosiers quarter Michael Penix Jr., who nearly tripled his previous career-high while passing for a program-record 4,641 yards, 31 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.

The first big move DeBoer made, though, was hiring offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who had been with him at Eastern Washington and both stints at Fresno State. Washington's production last year made Grubb a hot commodity last offseason, but he stayed with the Huskies and signed a lucrative two-year extension paying him $2 million a season.

Riley commented this week about the value of continuity within a coaching staff, like DeBoer has had with Grubb -- and co-defensives coordinator William Inge (at Indiana at Fresno State) and Chuck Morrell (at Sioux Falls and Fresno State) along with others on Washington's staff.

"I think especially it shows up when you're trying to start a new program, you're going somewhere new. There's already going to be so much new to begin with anyway that if you pile that on with a staff that's mixed in from all over the place, you just add on to it and in my opinion you probably slow the growth in the beginning, slow the potential. Both these programs have gotten off the ground pretty quick, and I do think both of us would look back and say the familiarity, the continuity with the staff was certainly a key factor in that," Riley said. "I know it has been here and I'm sure Kalen would say the same thing, so yeah, you've got to have the right ones but you can't a price tag on people you've been through those wars with and have that experience with. It may be new for some of the players or some of the other people, but it's not new for you guys and it counts."

Of course, everything for the Huskies starts with QB Michael Penix Jr., a lefty slinger who is completing 68.8 percent of his passes for 2,945 yards, 24 touchdowns and 6 interceptions while spreading the ball around to a talented receiving corps. Penix is the odds-on favorite for the Heisman Trophy at this point.

Coming into the season, the argument could be made that Washington had the two best receivers in the Pac-12 in returning stars Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan. Unfortunately, McMillan has been limited to just McMillan two full games, a half against Michigan State and failed comeback attempts against Oregon and Stanford in which he left the game early both times due to his lingering knee injury. McMillan's status remains in doubt for Saturday and per Grubb's comments this week it doesn't sound like the star wideout is going to play.

"J-Mac is his own kind of guy," Grubb said, per Dan Raley of SI's Fan Nation. "His ability to separate versus man coverage is elite. He knows that. He knows we're better with him out there. It's hard, it's really hard."

Even still, the Huskies are loaded at receiver with Odunze (51 catches for 907 yards and 7 TDs), who ranks 4th nationally in receiving yards, and Ja'Lynn Polk (46-836-7). And, for what it's worth, Washington TE Devin Culp is coming off his best game of the season with 3 catches for 55 yards and a TD vs. Stanford.

At running back, Mississippi State transfer Dillon Johnson leads the way with 430 rushing yards (4.9 per carry) and 6 TDs, but the Huskies' run game is not a major focal point of the their offense. They've finished with fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of the last three games (and four of eight games this season overall), including rushing for just 13 yards against Arizona State.

That said, the offensive line has been stout in pass protection while giving up only 5 sacks this season -- tied for 3rd-best nationally in per-game rate. Right tackle Roger Rosengarten has given up just 4 pressures and 0 sacks this season, per PFF, while left tackle Troy Fautanu has yielded 9 pressures with 2 sacks and redshirt freshman Parker Brailsford (4 pressures, 0 sacks allowed) has been an emerging standout between center and right guard.

"They’re a really good group," Riley said of the Washington offense. "The quarterback has really good command of what they’re doing, and you can tell he and their staff are really in sync. He’s really decisive with the ball. He’s not much of a runner, so he does a good job of getting the ball out of his hands and playing to his and their strengths, which is getting the ball to the talented playmakers that they have. They’ve got some guys out there that are obviously capable of making good plays. They do a good job, just enough with motions and shifts to change the picture formationally to stretch defenses. So they’re good. They have good players and a good scheme and have done a really nice job.

"The teams that have slowed them down, the biggest thing we’ve seen is being able to limit some of the big plays. They’re a group that, like most offenses, they thrive on being able to make explosive plays. So I think limiting the big plays, then making your share of competitive plays against them. I think watching them, and again, I don’t know that it’s necessarily specific to them, but when they do make mistakes, you gotta make them pay for it. Then you gotta try to limit the big plays because they are very capable and have had a lot of games where they’ve hit a ton of big plays. And so, I think those are the keys."

Washington's defense has an interesting statistical profile, ranking 95th nationally in giving up 400.2 yards per game yet the Huskies rank tied for 33rd in scoring defense (20.62 PPG).

The difference can't be explained in turnovers, as they've totaled just 9 takeaways through 8 games or clutch third-down defense, as they rank 97th in that category with opponents converting more than 41 percent of the time, or sacks (just 10 through 8 games to rank near the bottom of the FBS).

Chalk it up to a statistical anamoly. Three of Washington's five Pac-12 opponents have scored at least 32 points, which is more in line with the yardage totals the Huskies give up.

They gave up 502 yards to Cal, 541 to Oregon and 495 to Stanford, while splitting up those performances with excellent efforts against Arizona (342 yards) and Arizona State (341).

So what to make of the Huskies' defense?

Better than USC's overall but plenty vulnerable in its own right.

The Huskies are led by veteran linebackers Edefuan Ulofoshio (57 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 interception and 1 forced fumble), who made 12 stops vs. Stanford last week, and Dominique Hampton (55 tackles, 1 INT).

Junior cornerback Jabvar Muhammad does a little bit of everything for the Huskies with 29 tackles, 6 pass breakups and an interception, plus a team-high 5 TFLs with 2 sacks.

Junior edge rusher Bralen Trice leads the team with 2.5 sacks and 6 quarterback hurries.

Sophomore cornerback Elijah Jackson has been vulnerable in pass coverage, yielding receptions on 21 of 33 targets his way, per PFF, including 4 touchdowns.

The fact that these are two of the worst passing defenses in the country going up against two of the most prolific passers in the country.

The Huskies have allowed big passing days to three of their five Pac-12 opponents as Cal passed for 363 yards, Oregon went for 337 and Stanford had 367 through the air last week.

The Trojans have allowed four of their nine opponents to pass for at least 290 yards, meanwhile -- Nevada (311), Colorado (371), Arizona (303) and Cal (292) -- while being especially prone to big plays and third-down breakdowns in coverage.

There's no reason to think these QBs won't feast Saturday.

USC has to get pressure on Penix, even though the Huskies have done a good job protecting him this season. If he has time to sit back and pick apart this USC defense, it will be a long day for the Trojans.

The Trojans' sack production -- once among the national leaders -- has tailed off in recent weeks with just 1 total combined in the last three games. That has to change Saturday for a defense predicated on being disruptive in the backfield to cover up its warts elsewhere.