Preview: No. 25 USC at Stanford/Cal

The newly nationally ranked USC Trojans will travel to Bay Area this weekend to battle the Stanford Cardinal and the California Golden Bears. USC is fresh off of a sweep of the State of Arizona, defeating the then #11 Arizona Wildcats and the Arizona State Sun Devils this past weekend in Los Angeles.

BY THE NUMBERS:

Records (Overall, Conference): USC (15-5, 5-2); Stanford (12-5,4-3); Cal (12-7,4-3).

Notable Wins Over Potential Tourney Teams: USC (LBSU, Arizona, Oregon); Stanford (Texas Tech); Cal (Stanford).

Conference Ranks: Offense, Defense, Notable.

USC: 6th scoring offense (71.8 PPG); 3rd scoring defense (60.5 PPG); 1st FG % defense (35.4 %).

Stanford: 7th scoring offense (69.4 PPG); 6th scoring defense (65.5 PPG); 2nd rebounding margin (+5.9 RPG).

Cal: 5th scoring offense (72.8 PPG); 7th scoring defense (68.0 PPG); 1st free-throw % (78.4 %).

PLAYERS TO WATCH:

USC:

F Nick Young 17.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG.

G Lodrick Stewart 13.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG.

F Taj Gibson 13.0 PPG, 9.1 RPG.

G Gabriel Pruitt (9 games) 9.7 PPG, 3.2 APG.

Stanford (Thursday):

F Lawrence Hill 15.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG.

G Anthony Goods 13.2 PPG, 3.2 APG.

C Robin Lopez 10.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG.

C/F Brook Lopez 8.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG.

Cal (Saturday):

F Ryan Anderson 17.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG.

G Ayinde Ubaka 14.7 PPG, 4.8 APG.

G Omar Wilkes 10.3 PPG, 2.3 RPG.

NEED TO KNOW:

All Tied Up: USC and Stanford have played each other 228 times in their distinguished histories. The all-time series is tied, 114-114. For the record, USC is 1-6 in their last 7 games at Stanford.

High 5: The Pac-10 is the only conference in America with 5 schools ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 poll. UCLA is #3 and Oregon is ranked at #10. They are joined by Arizona (#17), Washington State (#20) and USC (#25). The ACC is 2nd to the Pacific 10 with 4 ranked schools.

Is This Home?: Cal is one of the few teams in the country that has played more road games (11) than home games (8) thus far this season. For the record, Cal is 6-2 at Haas Pavilion, limiting opponents to fewer than 58 points per game and under 40% shooting from the field at home.

Revenge On Their Minds: USC lost last year at Stanford, 58-56 on Chris Hernandez ' two made free-throws with 4 seconds left in the game. The controversial blocking foul call on Gabe Pruitt was blown late despite clear minimal contact between the two players on replay.

#2, But Not By Much: USC is 2nd in America in field goal percentage defense at 35.4% trailing only Texas A&M (34.6%). USC has held 16 of their 20 opponents to under 40% shooting from the field. In fact, only 2 opponents have shot better than 41% against the Trojans this season.

RECAP: USC vs. The State of Arizona.

USC swept the conference's two Arizona universities, defeating both then #11 Arizona and Arizona State at the Galen Center over the past weekend. For his efforts against the Wildcats and Sun Devils, Nick Young was named Pac-10 Player of the Week.

Young scored 30 and grabbed 8 rebounds in leading USC to an 80-73 upset over Arizona on Thursday. Lodrick Stewart added 18 points and Gabe Pruitt had one of his best games since returning to the Trojan lineup, scoring 16 points and dishing out 4 assists. The Wildcats joined Wichita State, Washington and Oregon as ranked teams that have fallen victim to the young Trojans this season.

On Saturday, Young lead USC in their win over the Sun Devils by scoring 18 points and playing perhaps his best defensive game of the year. As a team, USC held Arizona State to 49 points and under 37% shooting from the field for the game. Taj Gibson added 11 points, 9 rebounds and 2 blocks for USC.

THIS WEEK—SCOUTING THE TEAMS AND THE KEYS TO A TROJAN VICTORY:

USC vs. Stanford:

The gritty Cardinal are a throwback, playing hard-nosed defense and an inside-out offense that focuses on the blocks. Sophomore Lawrence Hill is the most dependable scorer on this extremely young Cardinal team, averaging 15.5 points and over 6 rebounds per game this season. Sophomore guard Anthony Goods has improved greatly from his 2.7/1.5 points/rebounds freshman campaign, averaging 13 points and 3 rebounds so far this season. Twin freshman 7-footers Robin and Brook Lopez anchor the conference's 2nd best rebounding team and the conference leader in blocked shots. The twins have started together for Stanford for the past 4 games, finally satisfying the vision Cardinal coach Trent Johnson had when he signed the twin brothers from Fresno. Brook Lopez missed the first 5 games of the season due to off season back surgery for a bulging disc.

Fred Washington, one of only three seniors on the Cardinal roster, is the wild-card. The 6'5" forward debuted in the starting line-up two years ago against USC, scoring 22 points in what looked like the start of a promising career on the Farm. However, Washington had his season cut short last year, tearing a patella tendon just 6 games into the season. Washington is back now, providing much needed senior leadership for an extremely young and talented team.

As a team offensively, the Cardinal are susceptible to foul trouble and dry spells from the field. They are shooting 45% from the field and under 35% from beyond the arc. None of their guards are reliable spot-shooters but with the recent play of Lawrence Hill and the Lopez twins, this trend hasn't mattered.

Ted's Take on the Cardinal: 6 thoughts.

1. These guys are grinders. They have two fast break points in the last three games! They are somewhat similar to USC in a couple of ways. First, they are not a run and gun team and do not get a lot of easy baskets in transition. Stanford tries to win games with efficient half-court offense and mistake-free defense. Secondly, much like USC, the Cardinal wait for the good shot, and they don't gamble defensively.

2. One way in which the Cardinal are different from last year is in the rebounding department. Stanford is second in rebounding margin in the conference and have bludgeoned a few opponents on the offensive glass. Rebounding will be a huge key to this game. The Trojans have the defense to stifle the Cardinal, but UCLA and Arizona hammered USC in rebounding, and Stanford could easily do the same.

3. The Cardinal play with a low margin for error though for a few reasons. First, Stanford is prone to long stretches of poor offense. The main reason is that the strength of the offense is down low, and teams have sagged down on the Lopez twins and Lawrence Hill, and the Cardinal do not have good perimeter shooters. Secondly, Stanford is a very poor 3-point shooting team. The Cardinal are 33% from beyond the arc, good for 8th in the conference. Only two players with more than two 3-point shot attempts shoot better than 35%, and the Cardinal have none over 40%.

4. The Cardinal also do not shoot well from the line, which is very uncommon for them. The Lopez twins and Fred Washington in particular are terrible from the charity stripe.

5. If the Trojans are going to win, they need to dominate the guard match-up. Anthony Goods and Mitch Johnson are poor shooters and will turn the ball over if pressured. The Trojans will live with them shooting from the perimeter.

6. The Trojans need to worry about two things: protecting the defensive glass and taking care of the basketball. If they do those two things, they will win the game. Stanford is a mediocre team offensively, and they are not as good defensively as USC is. The easy baskets that you can get from offensive rebounding and turnovers would allow the Cardinal to equalize the game. Without those baskets, they won't have the firepower to beat USC. Stanford does not force a lot of turnovers, so 'SC needs to merely not be careless. The rebounding is the true key.

USC vs. Cal: True freshman Ryan Anderson has saved this year's California Golden Bear squad from potential severe disappointment after Cal lost their best player early to injury, DeVon Hardin. Anderson has averaged over 17 points per game and nearly 10 rebounds in his first campaign at the Division-I level. But Anderson is the only Bear player that has done his part on the rebounding end, a facet of the game in which the Bears are poor at for the first time in years. The Bears are 8th in both rebounding offense and rebounding margin and 9th in the conference in rebounding defense.

As Ted noted, Cal lives and dies by the perimeter shot. Even big man Ryan Anderson likes to step-out and knock down the occasional 19-footer. Cal does not have a lot of variety in their attack, generally running out a 3-guard lineup that goes as point guard Ayinde Ubaka goes. Ubaka is a very good scorer but more importantly, has a great assist-to-turnover ratio (tied for 1st in the conference at a 2.36 ratio). Joining Ubaka in the backcourt is junior guard Omar Wilkes, an improving scorer that shoots nearly 52% from the field, leading the Bears.

Down low, Anderson is joined by forward Theo Robertson who is coming off a career-high 19 points in the loss at Oregon. Rounding out the Bears probable starting lineup is freshman forward/guard Patrick Christopher, an improving young talent that has started the past 8 games for Cal.

Off the bench, Cal loves to see sharp-shooting forward Eric Vierneisel light it up from 3-point territory (Vierneisel is 7th in the conference at 43% from beyond-the-arc). True freshman guard Jerome Randle will also see minutes for the Golden Bears.

Ted's Take on the Golden Bears: 6 thoughts.

1. These guys have been killed by injuries in the frontcourt. They lost both DeVon Hardin and true freshman Jordan Wilkes before conference play even started. Hardin was a starter, and Wilkes could have been one. As a result, they have had to cobble together a three guard line-up with Patrick Christopher as the third guard.

2. Fortunately for Cal, true freshman Ryan Anderson has stepped up his game and is the team's leading scorer and rebounder. He is outstanding. Anderson is good from the stripe and beyond the arc, and he can get it done down low as well. He is similar to Washington's Spencer Hawes, but he is a better outside shooter and not as good of a passer.

3. Ayinde Ubaka, the point guard, is the glue for the Bears. If he doesn't have a good game, the Bears have little chance of winning. He has been pretty consistent this year, although his three point shooting is still nothing to write home about. But he is a good offensive player when he is aggressive.

4. The Bears are a little different than they have been in years past. They have improved a little offensively, but they are not as good of a defensive team either. A lot of that has to do with the injuries. Last year, they had the shot blockers and the rebounders to make it tough for opposing teams on the offensive end. This year, they have had to play small, and it has hurt them defensively and on the glass. This is not the same team that beat USC three times last year. They have to rely more on the perimeter shot to win games. Only the Ducks have taken more 3-point shots per game.

5. Cal is by far the best free throw shooting team in the Pac-10, so getting foul trouble against them would be disastrous.

6. The two games this weekend are against very different styles of teams. Stanford likes to go inside-out, Cal relies on the 3 out of necessity. Stanford is excellent on the glass, Cal is awful. Stanford plays tight interior defense, Cal does not. Cal has good guard play, Stanford does not. In the Cal game, the Trojans have to ride Taj Gibson to victory, especially because Ryan Anderson will have to guard him. To win in Berkeley, the Trojans have to attack the interior on offense and defend the perimeter on defense.

PREDICTIONS:

USC vs. Stanford: USC has not forgotten last year's game at Maples, a game in which a highly questionable blocking call on Gabe Pruitt sent a sprawling Chris Hernandez to the floor and eventually to the free-throw line for the game winning free throws. USC and Stanford are very similar in their offensive and defensive half-court game plans, but execute differently. USC relies on quick perimeter play and assistance from the wing players down on the blocks on the rebounding end. Stanford plays BIG down low, anchored by the Lopez twins, Lawrence Hill and Fred Washington. Offensively, both like to slow it up and execute in the half-court. However, USC can run if they want and is a much better perimeter shooting team than the Cardinal.

USC's interior defense on the Stanford big men and their ability to protect the glass from the Cardinal's offensive rebounders will key this game. Taj Gibson and Abdoulaye N'Diaye must stay out of foul trouble and continue to play aggressive interior defense. Expect USC Coach Tim Floyd to play big for much of the game, but also to put pressure on Stanford by going to his 4-guard lineup that loves to run and put points up on the scoreboard in a hurry. Because of this ability to play both small and big and do so effectively, USC should present enough match up problems in order to outlast the Cardinal. But with big men likely dictating the pace of much of this game, fouls will be an issue in the game. If USC continues their recent trend at the line, all bets are off.

USC 69 Stanford 65

USC vs. Cal: We will not see anymore 22 point, 20 rebound performances out of Cal players like we did last year when Leon Powe absolutely pummeled the USC front court players in the conference tournament (Cal actually beat USC 3 times last season). This being said, playing at Cal has been a terror zone for the Trojans who have gone 2-8 in their last 10 at Cal.

Much like the Stanford game, this game will be decided on the rebounding end but this time, it is USC that will be the aggressor. As stated above, Cal is a very poor rebounding team and they rely too heavily on the outside shot. The USC perimeter defense has returned to its' steady status since the UCLA game and must play extremely efficiently against the Golden Bears. Much like against the Cardinal, USC's ability to play different styles of basketball will also be very important in this game. Abdoulaye N'diaye has been outstanding of late for USC and his confidence will be counted upon against the Golden Bears at times during the contest.

In order for Cal to win, they will have to shoot near 50% from the field and stay within reaching distance of USC on the glass. On top of this, the Bears will have to muscle up Taj Gibson and limit his 2nd chance opportunities down low while forcing more turnovers than the Bears are accustomed to. Cal must get some easy baskets if they are to defeat USC.

Moreover, as Ted noted, the match up on Ayinde Ubaka will be another key to this game. Gabe Pruitt will likely draw Ubaka duty and Pruitt has been spectacular lately on the defensive end. Pruitt, along with Nick Young and Lodrick Stewart, has also been shooting very well from the field of late. Pruitt should be able to limit the effectiveness of Ubaka and USC should be able to control this game on the defensive end. Cal does have the players to win this game, but after facing a top 5 Bruin team on Thursday, it seems that just too much has to go in their favor for a Golden Bear win.

However, if this game is close late and fouls are a factor, USC will be in trouble. Cal is a remarkable free-throw shooting team, shooting at near 80% on the season. USC, however, as slumped of late and Haas has been a very unforgiving venue for the Trojans.

Though this weekend could go down any which way, expect the still-searching-for-national-respect Trojans to respond to the challenge and defeat both bay area schools.

USC 80 Cal 77