Reporters Roundtable: Staff picks and predictions for USC-Cal
Suddenly, USC's final push through the regular season has renewed significance as the path to a Pac-12 South title has come back into focus.
For all their struggles and stumbles this fall, the Trojans are one of four teams tied atop the division standings with three losses entering their final two conference games.
Utah, Arizona and USC are all at 4-3 in the league while Arizona State sits at 3-3 with full control of its destiny -- but also a tough trip to Oregon awaiting next week. The Utes, meanwhile, also own a tiebreaker over USC, but they've now lost their starting quarterback and running back for the season as they play host to Oregon this week.
All USC (5-4, 4-3) can control at this point is its own business, and that continues Saturday in the Coliseum with a visit from Cal (5-4, 2-4).
Aside from a 37-7 loss to UCLA last month, the Bears have been pretty stout defensively and seem to be playing their best football since then, winning 49-7 at Oregon State, 12-10 at home over Washington and taking a competitive 19-13 loss to No. 8 Washington State.
Cal isn't going to overwhelm anyone offensively, but it ranks 19th nationally in total defense (323.2 yards allowed per game) while holding opponents to an average of 184.2 passing yards and 139 rushing yards per game.
USC, meanwhile, is looking to prove that it found some sustainable progress last week in its offensive outbreak at Oregon State. The Trojans can't expect to rush for 332 yards again against a much better opponent, but it will be interesting to see if the optimism that emerged around the offensive line last week can carry over to Saturday.
With that, here are our staff picks, predictions and perspective on the USC-Cal matchup.
What do you make of this Cal team that can lose by 30 to UCLA and two weeks later win a 12-10 game over Washington?
Adam Maya: The common denominator is the offense -- specifically, it’s not good. And sometimes a bad offense will wear down your own defense. I’m going to assume that’s what happened versus UCLA. The large variance is also indicative of the Pac-12. There isn’t a great team in this conference (sorry, Washington State); just a ton of parity. Cal’s defense is so good that it can beat anyone. But its offense is so bad that it can lose to anyone. Fun times.
Ryan Young: Well put, Adam. I think Cal's game with Washington says it all. The Bears manage only 242 yards of offense, but they hold the Huskies to 250 and eek out that low-scoring win. A week later at Washington State, they couldn't quite replicate the formula, putting up only 291 yards of offense while allowing 413 as the Cougars separated in the fourth quarter. It's very clear they have to dominate defensively to win, and they're capable of doing that. But that offense, oof. I keep going back and forth as to whether this is a good or bad matchup for USC for those reasons. I'm more concerned about the Trojans defense than offense the moment, but confidence is tenuous at best for either unit.
Tajwar Khandaker: To put it simply, this is a team with an inability to create yardage on offense and a defense that’s good enough to win some games in spite of that. Just look at those two games in question -- the Bears scored 7 in the loss to UCLA and 12 in the win against Washington. Patrick Laird is a nice player at running back, but aside from him there isn’t a single big-play threat on their offense. The big performances they’ve managed against good teams like Washington and Washington State came in spite of their offense. Their defense is for real, but it doesn’t matter if their offense keeps them on the field for 2/3 of the game. No defense can be expected to play at such a high level when playing that many minutes on the field.
What should the Trojans do in the secondary?
Adam: I can’t say what they should do until Biggie Marshall’s status is finalized. I'm told he will play if he's cleared and that he's all but certain to be cleared. So he starts outside, Jonathan Lockett plays nickel and Ajene Harris is at strong safety. I’d like to see Olaijah Griffin at nickel, but I don’t think he’s gotten enough reps there to take that on. If Marshall were to suffer a late setback and couldn't go, I would plan to start Griffin and leave Lockett at nickel and Harris at safety. I’m not particularly thrilled about the arrangement, but this way you have your best available options on the field. I’m not sure that it matters much in this game. If any of the three struggle, you can always slide Lockett outside or Harris back to nickel or outside, and insert C.J. Pollard at safety.
Ryan: I'll go a step further and say regardless of Marshall's status, USC should give Griffin significant playing time if he is indeed past his shoulder injury. There's nothing left to see with Isaiah Langley. He's going to be what he is and better passing teams than Cal are going to aggressively target him when he's in the game. Even if Marshall plays, I'd rotate Griffin in on the other side for as many snaps as he shows he's able to handle. Clancy Pendergast is big on continuity and he's now played two games with Lockett at nickel and Harris at safety, so to avoid too many moving parts, I'd focus on getting Griffin a long look at cornerback -- either out of necessity if Marshall can't go, or out of curiosity on the other side if Marshall is active. Recruiting rankings aren't perfect indicators of future performance, but Griffin was a 5-star recruit ranked the No. 3 corner in the 2018 class. I'd like to see what he can do.
Tajwar: Obviously everything depends on Marshall’s availability Saturday, which looks like it’ll come down to a game-time decision. If he can’t play, the Trojans don’t have many options at corner and will probably roll with Langley and Griffin outside, with Lockett at nickel and Harris at the safety spot opposite Marvell Tell. But if Marshall is healthy, Griffin should still be given the opportunity to start on the opposite side. Personally, I haven’t been a fan of Harris at safety and would rather see him in his usual nickel spot, with CJ Pollard at safety and Lockett kicking outside to take Langley’s role if Marshall is gone, but I don’t see that happening.
What confidence do you have that USC actually unlocked something sustainable in the running game last week?
Adam: We’re all guessing. But I’m expecting it to be better than it was earlier in the season, not so much because of what happened in Corvallis, but because I think the changes at play-caller and offensive line were done with this initiative in mind. I also think leaning on two primary backs rather than three is a little addition by subtraction. It’s easier to get both guys into a rhythm. It won’t be easy to run the ball against Cal, but I believe the Trojans will commit to trying, which hasn’t always been the case this season. And I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll see modest gains, at worst. I don’t think they’ll be shut down in the manner they were against Stanford, Texas, Wazzu, Colorado and Utah.
Ryan: The easy reflex would be to say that the success at Oregon State was mostly a product of the Beavers being a consistent sieve defensively. But, I was actually struck by the postgame comments of left guard Chris Brown, who seemed genuinely reinvigorated by the change in coaching/practice since Tim Drevno took over the unit (with help from Mike Goff). I think if nothing else, that maligned offensive line comes into this game with renewed confidence -- and I just believe those intangible things matter up front. As Adam said, I also think USC will remain concerted in its commitment to establish the run. That will be harder to do this week, but I hold out some confidence that the Trojans may finally settle into the balance they need to succeed offensively.
Tajwar: Although I think the dominant 300-plus-yard rushing performance against Oregon State was a bit of a mirage fostered by the weakness of that defense, I think there is a significant change for the better in the ground game. The backs have always been there -- that’s never been the issue. It was the inability of the offensive line to fire off the ball and drive defenders backwards that stagnated the rushing attack, and last week for the first time in a long time the line showed a capability to do that. It was a concerted change of approach, not just the weakness of the opposition, and even if it doesn’t bear the same gaudy results as last week, I think the run game will continue to be fruitful.
Who is your offensive pick to click?
Adam: Whoever I pick is the wrong choice. I feel bad that I’ve jinxed someone almost every week. One week I took out the entire offensive line. It makes me not want to name anyone. Or would it be better if I just listed everyone? They can’t all struggle at the same time, right? I’m so torn. Who I really want to select is Amon-Ra St. Brown since he is finally starting and will probably play more than ever before. But I’ve picked him multiple times already and it hasn’t worked out. I feel like I owe him an apology. I guess since I already have that letter to pen, I might as well stay with him. He seems like a tough-minded kid, and the last thing I want to do is have to write multiple notes saying I’m sorry. This way I can probably get away with just writing one. Sorry, Amon-Ra, I choose you.
Ryan: Amon-Ra St. Brown. It makes too much sense that he'd be the main beneficiary of Michael Pittman's absence. He's also due for a big game. He was arguably the best player on the team early in the season, and while I don't expect USC to necessarily have a prolific aerial attack against Cal, the Trojans will nonetheless need to make pivotal plays in the passing game at times. I expect St. Brown to deliver in those moments.
Tajwar: I think Aca’Cedric Ware has a nice week once again. He’s played well when given competent blocking all year, and last week's 205-yard, 3-TD explosion just goes to show how dangerous he can be with actual running lanes to pick through. The Cal defense will be a lot tougher than the one he faced last week, but I think the offensive line has turned enough of a corner in the run game to give him the creases he needs. He’s an expert at finding and making the most of even small lanes. With Stephen Carr out, Ware will be good for at least 15-20 carries -- more than enough for him to turn into gold.
What's your prediction?
Adam: This feels a lot like the Arizona State game, only I would expect this to be a lower scoring version of that. There’s no way these two are combining for 73 points. I haven’t felt real confident siding with either team, but I feel less confident picking Cal. Its offense scares me. I also believe having four losses has helped USC see itself for what it really is: an underachiever. The Trojans seem legitimately humbled by this season, and yet they still have the Pac-12 title game carrot hanging in front of them. It makes for a good concoction of concentration. When this team is focused, it usually wins, because it’s usually the more talented team. And I believe that all to be true this weekend. USC 24, Cal 17.
Ryan: I expect this to be an ugly game, but I think USC does enough offensively to handle business. Maybe I'm getting too daring here, but I actually expect the Trojans to put together an encouraging performance, look in control for most of the game and keep the Pac-12 South suspense going into next week. USC 20, Cal 13.
Tajwar: I think this will be the first game this season where the Trojans manage to look like the better team throughout all four quarters. With an improved running game and better play-calling in the passing game, the USC offense should be solid at the least. Good as Cal’s defense is, they won’t be able to contain the more talented Trojan offense all game long; especially considering the fact that their offense will contribute little. I expect the Trojans to dominate the time of possession battle, wearing away at the Bears defense all game long while their offense struggles to stay on the field. USC 28, Cal 10.