Scouting the Opponent: Beleaguered Buffs a 34-point underdog to USC

The Colorado Buffaloes have had a year to forget as they dwell in the FBS’ cellar as one of the worst teams in college football.

Despite the firing of head coach Karl Dorrell early in the fall, the 1-8 Buffs have continued to struggle, managing to eke out just one win on the season in overtime against Cal last month.

Colorado has struggled on both sides of the ball, with an offense that hasn’t been able to move the chains and a defense that can’t quite stop anybody.

Just to put it in full perspective, the Buffs rank 129th out of 131 FBS teams in scoring at 15.6 points per game, 122nd in total offense (303.1 yards per game), 130th in scoring defense (40.22 PPG) and 128th in total defense (483.2 YPG).

They've been through three starting quarterbacks, with one already entering the transfer portal, have been held under 14 points in five of their nine games, have allowed four times to put up at least 500 yards against them (including a high of 673 by Arizona) and have lost seven of their nine games by 23 points or more.

Coming off another brutal loss -- 49-10 -- to No. 6-ranked Oregon, it’s unlikely that the Buffs will pose much of a threat to No. 8 USC (8-1, 6-1 Pac-12).

The oddsmakers sure don't think so, as USC is a 34-point favorite.

Nonetheless, let's take a closer look at the matchup ...

Interim coach: Mike Sanford (1-3 in interim role; 10-19 career)

Stats/national ranks

Scoring Offense: 15.6 PPG (129th)

Scoring Defense: 40.2 PPG (130nd)

Total Offense: 303.1 YPG (122nd)

Total Defense: 483.2 YPG (128th)

What the Buffaloes do well:

There aren’t many positives to speak of on this Colorado team, but the Buffs’ run game is more capable than it appears on paper. Though the team averages just 3.5 yards per carry, that number is badly skewed by sack yardage lost by quarterbacks. Colorado’s running backs have averaged a decent 4.4 yards per carry, with four of the team’s five primary backs averaging over 4 yards a tote. Lead running back Deion Smith has been particularly effective at 5.1 yards per carry. He missed the second half last week due to injury, but he is expected to play Friday night. The offensive line has been solid enough to keep the run game semi-valuable, and they haven’t been awful in pass protection either. Though they certainly haven’t been impressive up front the unit has been relatively stable, allowing 17 sacks on the year. That’s just above the FBS average -- as good as things get for this team.

What the Buffaloes don’t do well:

Most things, unfortunately enough for Colorado. The biggest of their problems lies with the passing offense, which has been among the worst in the country averaging just 189.4 yards per game. The Buffs’ quarterback situation has been a nightmare as the team has cycled through three passers without finding one capable of leading the offense to consistent production. Veteran Tennessee transfer J.T. Shrout reclaimed the job when freshman Owen McCown was injured, but he’s been less than inspiring through seven games of play overall. Shrout is completing less than half of his passes at 44.5%, averaging just 6 yards per completion with 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions to show for his efforts. Colorado’s lack of pass-catching threats further stymies the potential of the passing game, especially now with emerging freshman No. 1 receiver Jordyn Tyson done for the season due to injury.

The Buffaloes are equally uninspiring on the defensive side of the ball, giving up nearly 500 yards per game. The front seven has been relatively impotent this season, against both the run and the pass. They’ve been allowing a whopping 232.6 yards per game on the ground, with most capable rushing offenses steamrolling them in the run game. Colorado’s pass rush might just be the worst in the whole country; they’ve managed only 6 sacks all year, good for dead last in the entire FBS. The Buffs lack any real impact players on the defensive line and have been prone to getting manhandled by opposing offensive lines. Those instabilities on the defensive front make it near impossible for the Buffs to hold up against opposing offenses.

Players to Know:

RB Deion Smith (No. 20): Smith has stood out as the lead man in the Buffaloes’ crowded backfield, leading the team in carries, yards and yards per carry with expected starter Alex Fontenot missing two months with an injury. Fontenot returned to action last week, so it remains to be seen what the rotation will be Friday. Overall, Smith has racked up 381 rushing yards on 75 attempts, scoring 2 touchdowns. The 6-foot, 190-pound junior is a quick back who shows good vision, allowing him to maximize on whatever opportunities his line gives him. An injury limited his touches against Oregon last week, but he’s likely to reclaim lead back responsibilities against USC.

QB J.T. Shrout (No. 5): The redshirt sophomore quarterback from Santa Clarita has been rather uninspiring, now in his second year at Colorado after transferring from Tennessee. He missed last season due to a knee injury. For his career, Shrout has averaged a disappointing completion percentage of just 47%, and he’s been even worse this year at 44.5%. Despite possessing solid physical traits, Shrout’s poor processing and accuracy leads him to place the ball in dangerous spots. He’s thrown an equal number of touchdowns and interceptions on the year, with 6 of each. He'll likely be the least imposing quarterback USC will have faced all year.

S Trevor Woods (No. 43): Woods has been one of the few consistent difference-makers on the Colorado defense, offering aggression and instincts from his spot in the defensive backfield. The junior has wrangled 63 solo tackles on the year -- second most of any player in the entire country and tops in the Power 5. He’s proven himself as a strong finisher at the football with a keen sense for pursuit angles. So far, Woods has notched 1 tackle for loss, 1 interception, 2 passes defensed and 2 forced fumbles. He’s a legitimate playmaker on the back end of the Buffs’ defense.

LB Josh Chandler-Semedo (No. 8): The veteran West Virginia transfer has impressed in his first season with Colorado, leading the team in tackles for loss with 10. He’s third in the conference in TFL’s, as well as sitting at second in total tackles (77) behind his teammate Trevor Woods. Chandler-Semedo is an explosive athlete with surprising quickness for the position, allowing him to beat offensive linemen with his twitch and giving him the potential to be a positive coverage player. He’s got a unique compact build for a linebacker at 5-foot-10 and 225 pounds, leaving him prone to get swept up at times in the run game but giving him unique opportunities to make plays when shooting gaps.

Key Stat: -10 Turnover Ratio

The Colorado offense has struggled to maintain possession, turning the ball over 18 times. That’s good for 114th worst in the country, little help to a unit that already struggles mightily to maintain possession and move the chains. The team’s 8 interceptions aren’t pretty, but Colorado’s real problems in the turnover department stem from their fumbling issues as a team. The Buffs have fumbled the ball an astounding 19 times on the year, losing 10 of those. Given the Trojans' penchant for forcing turnovers, this matchup with Colorado is the perfect opportunity for USC to get back to its early-season tendency of generating multiple takeaways per game.

Key Matchup: USC front seven vs Colorado run game

As described earlier, the Colorado run game is at least passably capable, more than what can be said for the rest of this team. Smith has proven himself to be a talented rusher while Fontenot is a veteran who led the team in rushing back in 2019 before injuries and the emergence of Jarek Broussard (who has since transferred to Michigan State) set him back. The Buffs will almost certainly look to lean on the ground game against a USC defense that hasn’t been particularly strong against the run. The Trojans are desperately in need of a good defensive showing after three consecutive poor performances on that side of the ball, and this matchup presents a perfect opportunity to get back on track. Successfully containing Smith and the Colorado running game will be the first step toward a solid defensive performance for USC.