An X And O Look At Hawaii
The opening game of the season is finally upon us. The Trojans have traveled to the islands to face the Warriors, who will be bringing back the signature rainbow to their uniform pants. This Hawaii team is going through a big time transition, especially offensively. They are replacing the NCAA's all time leader in passing, Timmy Chang. They are replacing a player who caught 102 passes last year in Chad Owens. Last season's top two rushers are gone. Then there is the defense, which returns seven starters from a group that was nothing short of abysmal last season. Jerry Glanville was brought in to improve the defense, and he hasn't coached since 1993, so it's hard to know what to expect. Do the Warriors have what it takes to keep from getting blown off the field. Here's a closer look at the game.
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USC Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
Glanville is a very aggressive football coach. His defenses are known for multiple blitz packages. His philosophy is that if offenses have time, they will make plays. He feels that it's better to force the action and give up the occasional big play than be nickeled and dimed to death all day long. This means that you'll see blitzes from everywhere, including the secondary. Glanville may have little choice anyway because Hawaii's defensive line was not very good last year. The team had only 29 sacks in 13 games last season, and ten of the came against Idaho. The Warriors were also abysmal against the run, giving up 253 rushing yards per game at 5.4 yards per carry. Obviously, Glanville has his work cut out for him.
So what will he do? The teams that have had some success against USC defensively have crowded the line to stop the run but have not been overly aggressive with blitz packages and have played two deep zone on obvious passing downs. Last season, Virginia Tech, Stanford, Cal, Washington, and Oregon State used those strategies. However, those teams had guys like Jim Davis, Darryl Tapp, Babatunde Oshinowo, Ryan Riddle, Lorenzo Alexander, Manase Hopoi, and Bill Swancutt up front. Hawaii doesn't have defensive linemen like that, and they are undersized at linebacker. Simply put, the Warriors do not have the personnel to run that kind of scheme effectively. So Glanville will likely stick with his tendencies and try to make things happen. If I had to compare Glanville's defense to one that the Trojans have seen recently, I would say that it's a 4-3 version of Bronco Mendenhall's defenses at BYU. Blitzes will be shown on the right, but then will come from the left. Safeties will take running starts at the line of scrimmage from 20 yards away. Don't be surprised if Hawaii brings seven guys on a play. Glanville is a gambler, and he wants to confuse quarterbacks and offensive linemen, forcing them to make hasty and incorrect decisions.
Can Hawaii pull this strategy off? I doubt it. This defense will not allow the quarterback to take deep drops and wait for guys to get open. However, it becomes imperative that blitzers stay in their lanes. An intelligent offensive line can exploit blitzers who lose their region of responsibility, and this SC group has learned a lot. After being thoroughly confused by BYU's 3-3-5 defense in 2003, the line regrouped, and the Trojans barreled the Cougars over to the tune of 291 on the ground. Hawaii's linebackers and safeties are experienced, but not in this scheme. The bigger problem for Hawaii is at corner. Unless Kenny Patton miraculously returns from arthroscopic knee surgery, the Warriors will be starting two sophomore corners (Ryan Keomaka and Keao Monteilh who have literally no meaningful experience. If Hawaii can't rattle Leinart with the blitzing, then USC's receivers are going to have a field day against the young corners. The Trojans also have a weapon in Dominique Byrd that the Warriors must contend with. With all of that blitzing as well, it becomes much tougher to account for the whereabouts of Reggie Bush.
The last three teams that went bombs away with blitzing against SC were Washington State, Arizona, and Oklahoma. The Trojans scored 42, 49, and 55 points in those contests. Matt Leinart has already seen a lot of defenses in his college career. His ability to break defenses down mentally is the key to the Trojan offense. Hawaii's only hope of slowing this train down is to get to Leinart and beat him up a little, as Cal and UCLA did. If the Warriors can't do that, the Trojans are going to be able to name their score, and they'll succeed with both the running and the passing games.
Hawaii Offense vs. USC Defense
This is where the true unknown lies for each team. Some long time contributors left the Warrior program, and now some completely new faces need to step up and provide similar production. If this doesn't happen and the defense doesn't improve, June Jones is going to have a long season. Hawaii is going to rotate two quarterbacks in this game. The likely starter is Colt Brennan, a product of Santa Ana Mater Dei High School. He was Matt Leinart's backup there. Brennan has good footwork and nice arm strength, but he's a little on the small side at 190. As a result, Syracuse did not offer him a scholarship, and he ended up at Hawaii. Tyler Graunke is even smaller than Brennan, but he is a good runner. When he is in the game, he will present the threat of designed quarterback runs. Apparently, Jones has been running some fake draw plays where the QB runs the opposite way after the fake. Running won't be enough though. Hawaii's offensive line is not the kind of group that can maul and opponent, so the passing game will have to click for the Warriors to stay close.
This is where things get really complicated. Hawaii's base set is a one back, four wide receiver grouping. The top returning receiver, Ross Dickerson, only had 15 catches last year, which is nothing in an offense that threw the ball 636 times last year. Jason Rivers caught 80 balls last season, but he is academically ineligible. To top it off, the player that Hawaii fans were hoping would step forward as a playmaker in the slot, Nate Ilaoa, showed up to camp out of shape and is bother with a nagging leg injury. As a result, Hawaii is very inexperienced at quarterback AND wide receiver. Add the fact that starting running back Bryan Maneafaiga has four career carries, and you're talking about the least experienced skill position group that USC will face all season. This is really an issue for June Jones because he has to try and trick SC while still keeping things simple enough so that the young guys don't get confused.
The Warriors will try to catch the Trojans off guard with a lot of misdirection running plays and quick passing plays. You won't see Hawaii call many audibles, if any. The quarterback reads will be quick and easy. Chang was a gambler who liked to throw the ball down the field, but it's unlikely that much of the vertical passing game will be on display because much of it requires more complex reads, especially in the run and shoot offense. It also requires longer pass protection. Hawaii's offensive line protects the passer very well, but they were helped last season by Chang's good mobility and his preference of throwing the ball into coverage rather than taking a sack. Still, I don't think you'll see a lot of blitzing from Pete Carroll's defense, at least early on. Carroll will likely try to mix up different man under and zone coverages to try and confuse the young guys. Carroll knows that if USC can get Hawaii to throw some interceptions, that the game will get ugly. Jones will try to minimize the risk by throwing lots of short routes and various wide receiver and running back screens. As usual, the running game will only be a diversion. Jones likes to throw the football, so expect at least 55 passes. The last time the team met, Hawaii threw 67.
Special Teams
There are a ton of question marks here for UH. Besides losing last year's kicker, the Warriors lost Owens, who was a spectacular punt returner. Apparently placekicking has been a struggle in camp. Punter Kurt Milne did not have a good season last year either. Last year Hawaii was terrible in coverage as well. UH does have some speed guys in the return game, especially freshman Michael Washington. The Trojan staff might feel that they can come after kicks as well, since Hawaii had four blocked in 2004. With the ever dangerous Bush back deep for USC, Hawaii has enough to worry about without concern over unforced special teams miscues. The Trojans have a big advantage here.
Outlook
It's one thing to be outmanned physically by USC. No one can match up with USC as far as talent goes. It's another thing to have enough talent to play with the Trojans if your coaches do a good job. June Jones and Jerry Glanville have great football minds. They just don't have the horses to make this contest interesting. On defense, a lack of quality players in the front seven really narrows Glanville's options, and the lack of experience at the cornerback position makes his preference of play dangerous. Jones needs to be able to hit a talented but young USC defense with the kitchen sink, but he can't install the sink because his players are still wet behind the ears. USC's perceived weakness is their defensive interior. With two new defensive tackles and a new starter at middle linebacker, some think that teams could be able to run against SC. However, Hawaii doesn't have the offensive line nor the scheme to take advantage of this possible soft spot. The Warriors' only hope is that the Trojans do much beach partying. The inexperience on offense will hurt Hawaii's rhythm, and the likelihood of pass plays will allow USC's defensive line to pin back their ears and go after the quarterback. Meanwhile, Hawaii will go after USC with blitzing, but Leinart will just make the proper reads and get the ball out quickly, and LenDale White will have a big day running in creases created by the blitzing. USC will romp to an easy win, and fans will see a lot of the second string guys in the third quarter and beyond.
Trojans-60, Warriors-23