There has been a lot of discussion about whether Matt Leinart made the right decision when he chose to stay at USC for his senior year. Trojan fans would tell you that he is just following his heart. Some people, to be quite frank, think that Leinart has lost his mind. Why turn down a ten million dollar sure thing signing bonus just to play college football again? There's a little bit of truth to both sides of the argument, but as usual, there's some gray area, just as there was in the Mike Williams situation. So did Matt Leinart do the right thing? That depends on your criteria for the right thing.

These are the facts. Matt Leinart was basically guaranteed a spot in the first round, most likely the top half of the first round. He has led the Trojans to two national championships and has won a Heisman Trophy. He is a two time Pac-10 Offensive Player of The Year, and was the cover boy for every single major sports publication at the beginning of the college football season. The Trojans have enjoyed success under Leinart that this team has not seen since the days of John McKay. He managed to get it done this year despite losing his top two receivers (while a likely starter was academically ineligible), his starting fullback, and four of five offensive linemen. He won games in every way imaginable, whether it was a blitzing of Notre Dame or a calm come from behind victory over Virginia Tech or Stanford. Leinart has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is the premier player at the college level.

So is there anything left to prove? Why stay and risk tons of money? If Leinart gets injured in the 2005 season, he will undoubtedly lose a lot of payola and will be second guessed by every talking head in America. After all, Peyton Manning came back to win a national title and a Heisman. Leinart has been there, done that. So what's the draw? The easy answer is his legacy in college football. No quarterback has ever won three national championships as a starter, and while Archie Griffin is the only man to ever win two Heisman Trophies, no quarterback has ever achieved the feat. Leinart may already be the greatest player in USC history, and in my opinion, he is already the best quarterback the school has ever seen. However, if he is able to reach the achievements stated above, he would distance himself from any other player who has ever donned a helmet and shoulder pads in NCAA competition. Someone on another message board stated that he could become the Bill Walton of college football. I think that is a good analogy, except that Leinart would surpass Walton in lore because football is a far more popular sport than basketball.

Let's look past the legacy argument though, and get to the nuts and bolts of the draft and the money. Many have speculated the Leinart would be the first pick in the draft. The problem is, does anyone know that for sure? I suspect that it wouldn't happen. Because the 49ers don't need a quarterback? Because people don't think he's any good? Of course not. However, the NFL evaluation system is a whole different animal from that of college football. Professional scouts are looking for the next John Elway, not the next Tom Brady. Right or wrong, physical talent is the premium in the NFL. General managers want Michael Vick types, not guys with intangibles.

That's the problem with evaluating Matt Leinart. His strengths are the intangibles, and his weaknesses are of the athletic category. That's the reason that many were surprised when Pete Carroll and Norm Chow named him the starter in the spring of 2003, and it's the same reason that the NFL may look on Leinart with a wary eye. Take a look at how the "War Room" of The Sporting News evaluates Leinart.

"Strengths: Has ideal size to play quarterback in the NFL. Has above-average intelligence and is a quick study. Is very poised and confident under pressure; does not get rattled easily. Sees the field well and spreads the ball to multiple receivers. Already reads coverages better than many NFL quarterbacks. Is accurate and throws a nice deep ball. Shows great confidence when the game is on the line.

Weaknesses: Lacks great athleticism, quick footwork, and agility. Will struggle against pressure when flushed to his right and away from his throwing arm. Lacks the necessary zip to stick passes in tight places, which could be a problem against NFL zone defenses. Shows a slow release, and NFL defensive backs should be able to get good breaks on his throws. Has some minor durability questions because of old injuries."

Right now, everyone is using superlatives when they talk about Leinart, because he just won the Heisman Trophy and the national title. We've seen this before from guys like Charlie Ward, Danny Wuerffel, and Chris Weinke. Obviously, Matt would go higher in the draft than any of these players did, but they are a perfect example of guys who were outstanding college players who achieved the highest levels of success in the NCAA, yet were not looked upon as potential NFL greats because of a lack of physical ability. None of the three had top arm strength. Ward was small for a QB, and Wuerffel and Weinke were not good athletes. Leinart has a problem when it comes to NFL evaluation. He is not a great natural athlete. Guys like Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith surpass Matt's ability in most measurable categories with the exception of size. Does that mean that Rodgers and Smith would be better NFL quarterbacks than Leinart? I really don't think so, but it doesn't matter what I think. The scouts are the key here, and they like to see physical ability.

How many times in the past have we seen a virtual unknown climb the draft board after having a great workout? Let me throw out some names for you: Dewayne Robertson, Justin Smith, Koren Robinson, William Green, Ashley Lelie, Jerramy Stevens, Patrick Ramsey, JP Losman, Mike Mamula, Dan Wilkinson, Kyle Boller and Akili Smith. These are just a small smattering of players who were not national names but shot up the charts because of great testing at the combine or in personal workouts. Meanwhile, there are a ton of guys who were great college players, but were either passed on or not considered altogether because of a lack of athletic ability. Right now, the glow of the Orange Bowl shines bright, as it did for Ward, Wuerffel, and Weinke. But will it still be shining bright in April when the draft rolls around? It wouldn't have surprised me at all if Matt had left to see both Rodgers and Smith pass him on the draft board. Both are already in most Top Five lists. Leinart would have nowhere to go but down after workouts, and the other two, especially Rodgers, would likely see their stock rise. There are also some rumblings about Leinart's dinged up elbow, a factor that could seriously hurt his draft status. Something tells me that the elbow was a much bigger factor in this decision than we as fans will ever know.

Another factor that people have talked about is the shallow draft pool of quarterbacks in 2005. Other than Rodgers and Smith, there are few top flight talents out there. Andrew Walter was supposed to be a first round pick because of great size and a big arm, until a disappointing senior season and an injury hurt his chances. Kyle Orton's stock is plummeting. The mid majors don't have any big timers like Ben Roethlisberger or Byron Leftwich this year. Why wouldn't Leinart throw his hat in the ring this year to take advantage of that? The answer: check out the 2006 class. It isn't very good either. Chris Leak is a kid who could get a long look, but he is only 6-0, and is not as athletic as people think. Brad Smith is not considered to be a big NFL prospect. Charlie Whitehurst doesn't have great athletic ability. Vince Young is a tremendous athlete, but he has not proven to be even mediocre as a passer. The Pac-10, known for its ability to produce quarterbacks, will feature Kellen Clemens as its most well known quarterback outside of Leinart. Frankly, 2006 may be more shallow than this season, and there are not any players like Aaron Rodgers on the horizon talent-wise.

In my opinion, because Leinart is not as athletically gifted as some of the other prospects, he needs to give general managers a reason to choose him over more talented players. Another big season would do just that. What fan base wouldn't be beating down the stadium doors to see a two time Heisman winner who won three national titles who has played at the top of his game in the biggest contests? Do these GMs really want to be the ones to pass on the "greatest player in college football history?" Leinart could give himself incredible leverage, which would in this day and age allow him to pick and choose where he would like to play. Eli Manning did it with far less leverage. Eli is more physically gifted than Leinart though, so Leinart has to achieve much more than Eli did. The pressure on GMs to pick great athletes at quarterback is made even greater by the success of Roethlisberger, who fell to the middle of the first round and the relative failure of Philip Rivers, who was drafted high but also is not a physical specimen. Leinart has strived to be the best in whatever he does. Why should the NFL Draft be any different? Leinart wants to be the first player chosen, and there is a better chance that will happen in 2006 because of the pool of players next season, and the likelihood that Leinart will have more huge success as a Trojan. If it's a money argument that you want, there it is. There's a large money difference between being #1 next year and #5 or #7 this year.

There is definitely a risk in this strategy though. An injury could really hurt Leinart's stock, and despite what many of you have likely read and heard over and over again, an insurance policy does not adequately cover him. No policy will cover a 10 million dollar signing bonus, and a player can only collect on a policy if the injury is career ending. A knee injury like Willis McGahee's, which cost him the status of being a top five pick and dropped him to the end of the first round, would not force payment of the policy. So if an injury dropped Leinart from the first to the second or third round, he would be eating the difference. Injuries cannot be predicted, but how likely is it that Leinart would get hurt playing behind a veteran offensive line with these weapons at his disposal? He is a big strong kid, and I think opposing teams learned this year that the best way to contain the Trojan offense is by dropping seven or eight guys and playing zone. Teams that blitzed, like Oklahoma, got their butts handed to them. It's no guarantee that Leinart won't get hurt, but my guess is that the odds are well in his favor with the quality of his teammates, the style of play that USC uses, the superiority of his coaching staff, and the gameplan that opponents must use to succeed. He was a marked man this season behind a young line and made it out OK. Smart money is that he will do it again next year. In my opinion, the risk is higher that he won't go #1 this year than it is that he will be hurt next season.

All of that aside, the main reason that Matt Leinart is going to stay at USC for his senior year is that he loves college life, and who can blame him? Many of us read this website and post on this message board because we loved our time at the University of Southern California, and wouldn't trade it for the world. Why should Matt Leinart be any different, especially since he is doing what nearly all of us did not, playing football at USC? In the end, Leinart decided that he was having to much fun to cut his time short one season, and we can thank guys like Carson Palmer and Keary Colbert for that. They both advised Leinart to stay because the NFL just isn't as fun as college.

The bitterness and venom that some people have displayed because a kid decided to prolong his university experience is interesting. Some may disagree with the decision, and some may think that leaving that kind of money on the table is flat out dumb, but Leinart's choice and the reasons behind it are none of their business. Matt Leinart made a decision based on what he wanted to do. If Matt Leinart chose long term memories and immediate happiness over monetary compensation that will likely be available next year, why should anyone question that decision? Different strokes for different folks. Matt did what he thought was right, and if he is happy with his choice, then he made the right decision.

Questions, comments, or info? Contact me at tvenegas@comcast.net.