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Published Oct 24, 2024
First-and-10: Facing the realities of USC's lost season
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Tajwar Khandaker  •  TrojanSports
Staff Writer
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@tajwar002

If it wasn't before, this officially became a lost season for USC with its 29-28 loss at Maryland last weekend -- the latest crushing fourth quarter collapse for a team that has specialized in them this fall.

While the weekly First-and-10 column is usually specific to the Trojans' game performance, it's time to take a wider lens on this 3-4 USC team and how we got to this point.

Like last week, we're going to focus on five key points and go in-depth on each ...

1. The reality of Riley

Last week, I made an attempt to redeem what was left of USC’s season, reiterating the fact that there remained a significant opportunity to build on the progress made to date by winning out through the rest of the schedule. As discussed previously, it’s been clear that this USC team has taken significant strides from the past two seasons, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The data through six games showed the Trojans to be already-capable of battling with any team in the country, despite the fact that they clearly do not yet possess a roster of the highest quality. All that remained was to cross the hump and to begin winning those winnable contests -- something that a team this talented and capable should have started to get right after so many close failures.

But once again, the Trojans found a way to falter in the closing stages, giving away what should have been an easily winnable game at Maryland and instead being left to sit with yet another loss on their record. This time, the loss came to a team that was markedly inferior, against a Terrapins squad that had just been blown out by Northwestern at home the previous week. Though the Trojans were clearly the stronger team, they never quite looked to have a handle on this game, shooting themselves in the foot persistently and allowing the Terps every opportunity to hang around, ultimately finding themselves unable to make the big-time plays down the stretch yet again.

At this point, there’s simply no denying the fact that Lincoln Riley’s record at USC has been characterized by the inability of his teams to pull away and finish in tight games. That was the case two years ago against Utah and Tulane, again through much of last season’s schedule, and has now remained so in each of the Trojans’ four losses to date this season. Riley has consistently struggled with the art of winning close games, and he’s shown next to no ability to improve upon that fatal flaw.

USC’s hard-fought win against LSU in Week 1 offered some hope that a corner might have been turned, but the weeks since have made abundantly clear how little has changed in that respect.

Against Maryland, it wasn’t just a late-game collapse but an entire contest devoid of the requisite attention to detail or focus required to win. Despite the dominance of the run game in recent weeks and the lack of coordination in the passing attack, Riley inexplicably refrained from getting the rushing offense involved early, handing the ball off just 5 times in the first half. He continued to call plays that asked for Miller Moss to hunt for big shots downfield, despite the fact that the quarterback was clearly struggling to connect on those, lending in large part to the stagnation of the USC offense. Altogether, it was an offensive game plan that seemed to be put together with an overarching sense of rigidity -- as though Riley had predetermined the way he wanted his offense to play this game no matter what he saw on the field. Though it became clear rather early that running the ball more and divesting from a fixation on deep fades might be the rational pathway to simply getting the Trojans working in rhythm again, Riley appeared dead-set on calling this game his particular way. We’ve seen that script before, and it again cost the Trojans dearly, this time at the expense of their season altogether.

There’s no more beating around the bush here -- Riley is not yet a coach capable of leading USC to where it needs to be. Until he’s more receptive to adjusting his approach based on the talent he has and the constraints he faces rather than to persistently manage things according to a predetermined vision, I just can’t see how he can lead his team to victories in consistent fashion on a week-to-week basis, particularly against more competent opponents.

More concerning than his decision-making is the routine inability of his players to remain focused and make the key plays in crunch time, as has been evidenced time and time again over the course of three years. That’s a function of mentality and preparation, and such failures over a sample size of this breadth can only be ultimately attributable to the man in charge.

With all of that said, USC is highly unlikely to move on from Riley soon, so throw those thoughts out of the window. For the near future, he’s going to remain the man in charge of this team. Riley has to keep evolving if he’s to be successful at the helm of this team; the coach he is right now simply isn’t equipped for the task. Any optimism has to be rooted in the belief that the young coach can continue to learn from his mistakes and to grow as a result. The sweeping and successful changes on the defensive side of the ball since last year offer some indication that he’s capable of identifying and addressing his blind spots, but there are significant issues yet to be remedied and when they pertain to himself it’s as of yet unclear if Riley is even capable of acknowledging them, let alone repairing them.

His ability to eventually do so, or not, will determine the trajectory of his remaining tenure as USC’s head coach. As things stand right now, though, all evidence points to Riley being unprepared or unwilling to take the next steps required of him.

2. Miller Moss needs to find himself again

It brings me no pleasure at all to state that quarterback Miller Moss’ play has been clearly regressing over the course of recent weeks. Moss was always a limited player in certain respects, namely with regard to his modest downfield arm strength and mobility. What allowed him to overcome those deficiencies were tremendous accuracy and decision-making ability, which largely nullified his physical disadvantages by ensuring that he was consistently able to make the best play available to him. In the early season, those two tremendous attributes of his allowed him to be highly successful, even as the offensive line struggled to give him time. However, even as the offensive line has begun to play markedly better in recent weeks, Moss has faltered significantly with regard to those traits upon which he relied.

Not only has his thrown football become rather erratic, prone to arriving far from his intended target, but Moss has seemingly become far less disciplined with his decision-making, consistently choosing to pursue more-aggressive throws downfield rather than the more open looks he’s been presented with underneath. This was a tremendous issue in the game against Maryland, as Moss continuously hunted for big passing plays down the field while open receivers awaited the football at shorter depths. Moss was largely unproductive on those plays, routinely failing to place the football accurately even when his downfield receivers worked their way open.

Moss’ limitations of arm strength are by no means damning of his potential to be a good quarterback, but they do require him to play with a firm knowledge of his own abilities and the constraints they present. In recent weeks, he’s ignored that reality, causing him to eschew good opportunities to move the ball in favor of going for the big play. A version of Moss that cannot in fact make good reads early in the passing progression is a liability, and that’s the player that’s been on the field more often than not in recent games.

We know that Moss is capable of making much better decisions because we’ve seen him do it before, and there’s every chance that he can return to the thought process that served him so much better early in the year. Until he does, however, he’ll remain a wildcard for this USC offense rather than the steadying figure at the helm which he needs to be. I think he’s shown enough to believe that he’s more than capable of righting the ship, but he needs to do so starting this week. If he keeps showing to be as erratic as he’s been in the last few games, it might be in the team’s best interest to start thinking about other options at the position.

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