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Published Dec 7, 2024
First-and-10: Has Lincoln Riley learned lessons from USC's 6-6 season?
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Tajwar Khandaker  •  TrojanSports
Staff Writer
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@tajwar002

There may be no bigger what-if season for USC in recent memory than what transpired this fall, with the Trojans finishing the regular-season 6-6 despite having a fourth quarter lead in 11 of 12 games and being right in every game down to the final minutes.

The gulf between the potential of what this season could have been and what it ultimately was deserves some major examination.

And that's what the First-and-10 space is for each week, after all. In the final column of the regular season, we'll touch a little on the 49-35 loss to Notre Dame that punctuated the season but more so on bigger-picture themes and takeaways.

1. More evidence that Lincoln Riley's play-calling doomed USC in 2024

Though the Trojans didn’t hold a fourth quarter lead for the first time all year, it was only fitting that their season came to an end with yet another late-game heartbreaker. In some ways, the season’s script was flipped on its head against the Irish.

An early injury to Woody Marks kept him from serving as the Trojans’ workhorse, the passing offense finally managed to put up gaudy numbers, and the defense found itself uncharacteristically overwhelmed. Despite all of that newness, the primary reasons for USC’s failure to pull out a victory felt quite familiar. Foremost among these is the play-calling on the offensive side of the ball, though the box score doesn’t quite tell the story on its own.

The Trojans were sensationally productive in this outing, throwing for 360 yards and rushing for another 197, achieving near season-highs despite playing against what was arguably the best defense it faced all year. Lincoln Riley’s decision-making certainly deserves some credit for that performance, but it’s the missed opportunities on that side of the ball that are difficult to reckon with.

Foremost among those is the abject failure to remain consistently committed to the run despite the continued success the Trojans were finding on the ground when they chose to rush. Marks had racked up 33 rushing yards on 6 carries before his first quarter injury, but backup Quinten Joyner received only 8 carries over the remainder of the game despite his fantastic productivity at 8.3 yards per carry (83 rushing yards total). Riley instead chose to thrust the game wholly into the hands of Jayden Maiava, asking him to make one difficult throw after another for most of the contest. For the most part, that strategy paid off handsomely as Maiava delivered a stellar performance chock full of remarkable downfield completions, but it cost the team dearly at key junctures. The game Riley was asking Maiava to play was a risky one, necessitating that he pull off one low-probability deep shot after another in order to keep the offense rolling. Though Maiava connected more often than not, the missed opportunities kept the Trojans from putting points on the board when they should have.

On two consecutive sets of downs between the third and fourth quarter, the Trojans failed to run even once, despite the fact that Joyner had been running at a high level just before. Both series resulted in punts. Later, after a 23-yard rush by Joyner set USC up at the Notre Dame 21 with a chance to tie the game, the Trojans elected to throw another low-probability 1-on-1 sideline shot to Kyron Hudson instead of playing it safe. The ball was picked off with ease and returned 99 yards for a score, effectively ending the game.

The overarching theme of both this game and the season is that Riley struggles deeply to pivot away from a strategy once he’s decided upon it. He failed to adjust the team’s offensive approach to its personnel all year, repeatedly choosing to hammer on in the manner he’d previously determined. Even after finally making the quarterback switch, Riley refused to let his ultra-productive running game take center stage, instead forcing a young quarterback and an inconsistent receiver group to carry the load for his offense. In this game, on down after down that could have easily been a rushing opportunity for Joyner, he instead chose to throw short passes behind or at the line of scrimmage to minimal effect. All season, those passes have frequently lost yardage and set the team up in second-and-long situations, yet Riley has maintained his insistence on going back to them instead of simply allowing his productive rushing attack more opportunities.

With all of that said, this was certainly a game where the defense bore more responsibility for the loss than the offense. And yet, the Trojans offense was still poised to perhaps save the day, if only Riley was able to adjust his approach. Cruel as it may be to the players, it’s hard to deny that this was precisely the result Riley deserved to end this season given the way he’s coached all year. The football gods always find a way to reap their due; it remains to be seen if Riley is finally ready to start listening to them.

2. The future at QB is clear

There will be a lot of harping over Maiava’s twin pick-sixes to close out this game, but let me be crystal clear about what we saw from the young quarterback last Saturday: stardom.

For most of this game, Maiava played what was by far the most impressive quarterback performance this team has seen all season, and one that could have counted among the country’s best in Week 14. Facing the best defense he’s gone up against in his young collegiate career, Maiava was absolutely sensational, throwing for 360 yards and 3 touchdowns while adding another 2 touchdowns on the ground.

Though he took a while to get going, as has been the case in each of his starts to date, the redshirt sophomore came roaring to life late in the second quarter. He led the Trojans downfield on a dazzling drive to end the half with only 55 seconds to play, throwing a perfect ball on every down. Maiava’s best attribute has always been his ability to throw the deep ball, and he threw two beauties on that drive, one dropped by Zachariah Branch and the other caught for 35 yards by Makai Lemon. Finishing the drive with a beautiful touchdown throw to Ja’Kobi Lane, Maiava pulled USC even at the half and finally got the passing offense rolling. Through the remainder of the contest, he was on fire, placing almost every ball on the money despite the high degree of difficulty on the throws he was attempting.

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Maiava threw 14 passes of over 20 yards on the day, completing 5 of them for 145 yards. He placed plenty of the rest in perfect position, only for his receivers to fail to haul them in. This was unmistakably one of the best displays of deep passing in college football this season, and it came against one of the nation’s top pass defenses. That skill alone makes Maiava one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the country, but he showed his abilities to extend well beyond in this contest. He was deadly reliable as a passer to every level of the field in this game, completing 22 of 32 of his passes under 20 air yards for 215 yards and 3 touchdowns. Some of his best throws included these intermediate-level throws, such as his masterful touch pass over the middle of the field to Lemon, his three touchdown passes to Lane and a critical third-down dart to a crossing Kyle Ford.

Maiava’s pocket presence was impressive throughout the game, as he largely avoided pressure without taking his eyes away from the field and continued to sling the ball without being affected by closing defenders. He made a number of big-time plays when under pressure, either creating enough room to get a throw off with his movement or managing to launch perfectly-placed passes downfield while taking hits.

Critically, the lapses of decision-making that have marred his play consistently were almost totally absent from this performance, allowing him to avoid the turnovers that hamstrung this offense in previous weeks. Of course, Maiava did end up turning the ball over twice in dramatic fashion to close out the game, but I’d argue those are not worth holding against him for too long. The first pick-6, which essentially sealed the outcome, was clearly the result of a miscommunication between Maiava and Hudson. Maiava threw the ball expecting Hudson to come back to it on the back shoulder, while Hudson tried to sprint clear past his defender into the end zone. It’s hard to say which player made the wrong call, but it’s difficult to pin the decision on the quarterback when the play call had no other options. This was a designed one-on-one without another viable target in the progression; Riley put Maiava in a position where he was expected to complete this ball with a single read. The other pick-6 was even more excusable, a fourth-and-long heave into the end zone tossed with four Notre Dame defenders chasing the quarterback deep into the backfield.

The first interception was especially costly, and Maiava might have instead thrown the ball where Hudson wanted it or tried to take off himself. Given the context, though, I find those gripes unworthy of too much consternation. All in all, Maiava played a fantastic game, one in which he was the primary reason the Trojans were in a position to win at all. His skill as a downfield passer finally unlocked the vertical element of this offense, showing us just what this receiving corps might have been capable of all year had he been at the reins. Though his decision-making could stand to keep improving, this was by far his best showing in that regard. Otherwise, this was a damn near perfect performance, during which Maiava did practically everything that could be hoped for from a star quarterback.

He didn’t just help the team to succeed -- the quality of his play was such that it actually elevated the entire team’s prospects on the day. That is what defines a star quarterback, and it’s what makes star quarterbacks worth their weight in gold. Maiava has now clearly demonstrated over three games that he’s as physically gifted as any passer in the country. He possesses fantastic size, mobility and arm talent but also the ability to generate top-notch ball placement to every level of the field. Given what we’ve seen so far, I feel confident in stating that Maiava has one of the highest ceilings of any quarterback in college football. Players with his gifts simply do not grow on trees, and the improvement he’s shown over each of his three starts as a Trojan tells me that he’s capable of taking his game to the next level with more time.

USC should certainly seek to add depth to the room through the transfer portal, but I see no reason why Lincoln Riley shouldn’t firmly establish Maiava as the starter heading into next season and spend this offseason honing the parts of his game that can still be polished. I’ll say it one more time -- Maiava has superstar potential written all over him, and he’s not far at all from unlocking it. USC should thank its lucky stars for that truth and begin the process of designing this team for next year around it.

3. Salute to Woody Marks

Marks deserved better than for his season to end in such bitter fashion. After having served as the Trojans’ best player all season, Marks was off to an impressive start to his final contest against a stout Notre Dame defense, tallying 6 rushes for 33 yards in the first quarter. However, a tackle that caused his head to bounce off of the turf uncomfortably ended both his day and his college career, on an outing that could have easily turned into yet another monster performance.

Marks ends the season with 1,133 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns, along with another 321 yards on 47 receptions. His season was one of the best by any Trojans running back since the Pete Carroll era, and it should be remembered as such. Marks was perhaps the brightest spot on this team and the player who did the most to make it watchable on a week-to-week basis despite the dysfunction all around him. His all-around skill set as a runner, receiver and pass blocker makes him one of the most complete backs to play for USC in a long while and is certain to make him a coveted commodity in next year’s NFL draft.

Though five full seasons of college football played are likely to diminish his value somewhat for a league that prefers youth at his position, Marks’ value in all phases of offensive football makes him the kind of back that every team is constantly looking for. Even if he’s not selected in the first two rounds, I feel confident that he’ll find himself picked in the middle stages of the draft by a team that could badly use his skill set. No matter where he’s drafted, I feel confident that Marks is going to be a positive contributor at the next level, even if as a rotational piece. His masterful final season at USC will have almost certainly done major favors to his draft stock, much as it did for the team’s overall success.

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