The top-ranked, Pac-10 champion USC Trojans (11-1, 7-1 in the Pac-10) open 2004 in style against the fourth-ranked, Big-10 champion Michigan Wolverines (10-2, 7-1 in the Big 10) at 2 p.m. Pacific time New Year’s Day in the 90th Rose Bowl. ABC will televise the game nationally. It is the ninth meeting between the schools, and seventh in the famed bowl game known as “The Granddaddy of Them All.” The Trojan-Wolverine series is tied 4-4, but in Rose Bowl games, USC is 4-2 against Michigan and won the most recent meeting, 17-10, on Jan. 1, 1990. The Trojans are appearing in their unprecedented 29th Rose Bowl (20-8), while Michigan is appearing in its 18th (8-9), the second most appearances by any school. Both teams are coming in to Pasadena on lengthy winning streaks – USC has won eight in a row, Michigan six.

After spending four of the regular season’s final five weeks in firm grasp of the No. 2 slot in the Bowl Championship Series rankings, the Trojans were unceremoniously ousted from the nominal BCS title game in the Sugar Bowl by a seemingly cruel computer twist. However, after earning the top ranking in both the press and coaches’ polls (despite the BCS’ computer quirks), USC and Coach Pete Carroll (28-9 in his third season) are now on track to win their first national championship in a quarter-century with a defeat of Michigan on Jan. 1. Not only would a Trojan win complete a dreamy two-season long return to glory, but it may also force major changes in the way Division I-A football decides its still mythical national championship. Who could have believed even two years ago today that USC could not only bring its fans a long-awaited national championship but also bring major college football closer to creating a true national title competition? Suffice it to say, outside of Ann Arbor, Mich., Baton Rouge, La., Norman, Okla., and Westwood, much of the nation is pulling for the Trojans to wreck the current system and leave the Jan. 4 Sugar Bowl game about as meaningful as the other bowl match-up in New Orleans this season (the Dec. 16 New Orleans Bowl featured Memphis and North Texas, for those of you out of the loop).

While the stakes aren’t quite as high for the Wolverines and their head coach, Lloyd Carr (86-25 in his ninth season), they aren’t much smaller. With an impressive win and a questionable performance or outcome in the Sugar Bowl, there’s an outside chance Michigan could snare enough support in the troubled atmosphere of the BCS mess to earn a split of the national crown themselves. This is a team that will be playing its eighth consecutive New Year’s Day bowl game, and has won five of its past six such contests. UM, much like the 2002 Trojans, is peaking at the right time, after faltering twice in early season contests and losing narrowly each time. The Wolverines compare favorably to the Trojans in almost all statistical categories, feature a number of key playmakers on a balanced offensive attack, and have improved defensively throughout their six-game winning streak. This is clearly the best team USC has faced all season, and Michigan will provide the Trojans with a worthy test of their possible national championship mettle.

The Wolverine offense ranks in the national top 35 in all five key statistical rankings (scoring, total offense, rushing, passing and pass efficiency). Their 37.2 points per game rank ninth in the nation. This is a well-balanced offensive football team that can hurt USC in various ways if they have all their parts in working order. Senior running back Chris Perry (1,589 yards rushing, 42 receptions, 19 TDs), the Doak Walker Award winner and Heisman finalist, usually makes this offense go. But QB John Navarre is likely the key to this game for the Wolverines. With USC allowing just 61.1 yards per game on the ground (second in the nation) and an astonishing 1.9 yards per carry, Navarre will have to be on top of his game for Michigan to create the kind of balance it has relied on in 2003 – without Navarre playing well, it will be difficult for Perry to find the kind of running room he is used to. In fact, Navarre’s effectiveness early against Ohio State is what opened up Perry’s running lanes. The senior has completed more than 59 percent of his passes for more than 3,000 yards, and has emerged as a more consistent force in his final college season, throwing 23 TDs and just nine interceptions.

The UM backfield operates behind the Big 10’s best offensive line, headed by senior RT Tony Pape, senior LG David Baas and senior C Dave Pearson. The Wolverine line has started the same five players every game this season and led the Big 10 in fewest sacks allowed with 15. This group will provide a very stern test for USC’s heralded front four. When Navarre looks to throw the ball, he has a bevy of options, including stud junior wideout Braylon Edwards (75 catches, 14 TD in 2003) and sophomores Jason Avant and Steve Breaston. Breaston is a big-time playmaker, who has scored in 2003 on TD catches, punt returns, reverses and even by throwing a pass. Perry is also a big pass-catching threat, and Michigan continues its tradition of making good use of its tight ends in the passing game. Expect senior Andy Mignery and junior Tim Massaquoi to get most of the action at the TE spot, with sophomore Tyler Ecker also in that mix.

When you think about the Michigan football tradition, you most likely think of big hitting defenses that have ground their opponents’ attacks to a halt. But, with the 2003 Wolverines, it is the offense that has made the team’s name, while the defense turned in some questionable performances early on. Still, there is plenty of size and speed on a unit that has improved drastically since the first three quarters of the team’s 38-35 comeback win at Minnesota in October. UM ranks in the national top 10 in scoring defense, total defense, pass defense and pass efficiency defense, while ranking 25th in the country against the run. The Michigan defense can be hard to get a handle on, as, at times, they blitz heavily and, at others, sit back in a zone. UM does not have big sack numbers or ball hawking numbers (just 20 turnovers forced), but the Wolverines are very tough to finish drives against. While Michigan has not seen an offensive team quite like USC, it has handled almost every other team on its schedule.

Junior outside linebacker Pierre Woods is a key playmaker for Michigan. He leads the Wolverines with 12 tackles for loss and six sacks. He’s joined in the middle of the UM defense by junior Lawrence Reid, Michigan’s leading tackler, and senior Carl Diggs. Michigan relies on its front four to create enough havoc up front to leave its linebackers free to roam against opponents’ rushers. Seniors Grant Bowman (DT) and Larry Stevens (DE) are the leaders of the defensive front. Starting corners Jeremy LeSueur and Markus Curry are solid, if unspectacular, players who will be facing something wholly new in the Trojan receiving duo of Keary Colbert and Mike Williams. True freshman corner Leon Hall has made a splash this season with a team-leading three interceptions. Junior safety Ernest Shazor is the enforcer of the Wolverine secondary.

Freshman placekicker Garrett Rivas has been a solid addition to the Wolverines’ kicking game, connecting on nine of 11 field goal attempts. He’s mostly untested, though, outside of 40 yards. Senior Troy Nienberg handles kickoff duties. Punter Adam Finley is a liability for Michigan. He averages less than 40 yards per kick, while the Wolverines punt and kick coverage has struggled at times. UM is also susceptible to blocks (good news for a USC team that has blocked six kicks this season). Breaston is a huge threat, however, on punt returns, ranking ninth in the nation with a 14.1 average and two TDs. He shares kickoff return duties with LeSueur.

Due to the importance of the game and the quality of the opponent, the Rose Bowl must be considered Norm Chow’s biggest test since arriving at the University Park campus. Will Michigan bring the house to rattle Trojan quarterback Matt Leinart, as Washington State tried early on (and the Wolverines did against pass-happy Purdue)? Or will they sit back and force Leinart to read coverage and make accurate throws, as Oregon State did (and Michigan used effectively against Michigan State)? The Trojan offense will again pass to set up the running game, using quick drops and short passes early on. Michigan will likely try to use its front four early, with occasional blitzing from the linebackers and corners, in an attempt to keep USC from beating them downfield. Blitzing heavily against Leinart with the weapons available to him has not worked yet this season, and I don’t think it would work for Michigan.

Michigan has been stellar in the first quarter in 2003, allowing just 17 points in 12 games. Can they keep that up against a USC offense that has put up at least 14 points in the first quarter of its past three games and 506 total on the season? This USC team is as potent as any college team I can recall, due to its unpredictable scheme and stable of speedy talent. Want to slow Williams? What will you do about Colbert? Stacking up LenDale White inside? Can you catch Reggie Bush or Hershel Dennis around the corner? Michigan can slow the Trojan rushing attack early, but unless they find a way to pressure Leinart without leaving holes in the secondary, they will be hard pressed to stop USC. The fact that UM doesn’t force many turnovers and has minimal sack numbers (going up against a Trojan offensive front that has allowed just 14 sacks all season) doesn’t bode well for the Wolverines holding the Trojans in check for four quarters. If the game is tight at halftime (as I expect it to be), USC’s third-quarter offensive prowess (133-38 scoring margin) could be the difference.

USC will likely focus on taking Perry out of his element early. The Trojan defensive gameplan during the Carroll Era has centered on making teams one-dimensional early in games and then slowly shutting that dimension down as the game moves on. Look at the Trojans’ three losses in the past two seasons and you’ll see one similarity – Kansas State, Washington State and Cal were all effective in both phases of the offense, which kept USC off balance. In this game, the Trojans must attempt to shackle Perry and put the game in the hands of Navarre. While Navarre has had an excellent season, he’s clearly the weaker link in the Michigan offense’s rush-pass combo.

It will be up to Kenechi Udeze, Shaun Cody, Mike Patterson, Frostee Rucker and recently activated Omar Nazel to make the Wolverine offensive line work harder to open holes for Perry, while at the same time getting after the slow-footed, slow-releasing Navarre. The Trojan linebacker corps, with or without Matt Grootegoed, must be able to handle Perry’s bounce on rushing plays and his pass catching capabilities. If USC can slow Perry enough (I believe if Perry hopes to become the second 100-yard rusher in 26 games against USC, he must get 60-75 yards by the middle of the second quarter), then it falls on the Trojan secondary to make the kind of big plays they’ve made all year, while giving up the yards USC fans have become accustomed to seeing from opposing offenses. The Wolverines will go after Marcell Allmond deep early and often, and they will use the slot receivers and tight ends to try to exploit USC’s safety play (trust me, Michigan has watched video of the Cal and Oregon State games time and again). If the pass defense doesn’t come up with sacks (a Pac-10 leading 46) and turnovers (41 takeaways, nation-leading +1.7 turnover margin) as they have all season, the Wolverines could turn this one into a shootout.

Am I dreaming or are the Trojans really days away from facing Michigan in the Rose Bowl with the national title hanging in the balance? This day has been 25 years in the making for long-suffering Trojan fans. Heck, I was seven years old on Jan. 1, 1979, when USC notched its last national crown by toppling the Wolverines. I remember the game fairly well, but, truthfully, at seven, I clearly wasn’t as invested emotionally in this as I am now. No matter the outcome, I can say with full confidence that the mere fact I am sitting here discussing what No. 1 USC can do to defeat No. 4 Michigan in the Rose Bowl is far more than I could have ever imagined possible when I started writing for this site in the late 1990s.

Ah, but what about that outcome? I see the game being tight throughout the first half, with some early offensive fireworks before a slowdown in the second quarter leaves the Trojans up by a touchdown going into the locker room. Michigan will have used its passing attack effectively, with a big play by Edwards notching one touchdown, but a Navarre interception kills another scoring chance, and Perry will be struggling for room on the ground. Coming out of the halftime chat, just when it looks like the Trojan offense is truly going to be challenged by a strong UM front seven for four quarters, Bush – a player for whom Michigan simply has no answer due to his speed coming out of the backfield – will catch two touchdown passes in the third quarter, making the fourth quarter mostly an exercise and sending the Trojans to a 21st Rose Bowl win and ninth national crown. USC 38, Michigan 24.