Published Sep 20, 2024
Matchup Breakdown: No. 11 USC back in national spotlight at No. 18 Michigan
Ryan Young  •  TrojanSports
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On the one hand, Michigan coach Sherrone Moore may have done USC a favor this week by wasting no time in announcing a quarterback change on Monday, replacing struggling Davis Warren with dual-threat junior Alex Orji.

On the other, there isn't much for the Trojans to study on film about Orji, who has attempted just 7 passes in 12 games over three years while being used in run-oriented packages.

"You could see advantages from both sides," USC coach Lincoln Riley said. "Sure, if you're on our side, you say, 'Oh, that's great, we have an idea of who they're going to play with.' But I think also there's a sense of -- again, I don't want to speak for Coach Moore or anybody else -- but probably a sense of you get some clarity to your own roster and some of the question marks there.

"At the end of the day, it's going to still be how do we play, how do they play, who's ready to play, who executes the best on game day. I know it's a story right now -- when the game starts it's going to be who plays the best on game day and I just don't think them announcing it is going to make a massive difference for one team or the other. Somebody's going to play better than the other team and that team is going to win."

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Defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn spoke to the challenge from his end in trying to game plan against so much unknown.

Do the Wolverines trust Orji to handle a normal volume of passes, or will they lean almost exclusively on a multi-pronged ground attack?

"You have no idea what they're going to do, what they're going to gameplan. At the end of the day we just have to play our rules and play our style of ball," Lynn said.

Warren, a senior, beat out Orji in the preseason quarterback battle for the No. 18-ranked Wolverines (2-1), but he had passed for just 444 yards, 2 touchdowns and 6 interceptions through three games, including 3 INTs last weekend vs. Arkansas State.

Orji, a 6-foot-3, 235-pound former three-star prospect, got into the game Saturday late and completed 2 of 4 passes for 12 yards and a touchdown and rushed 3 times for 27 yards. He rushed 6 times for 37 yards and 2 TDs as a freshman in 2022 and 15 times for 86 yards and a touchdown last season. He also had a career-high 32 rushing yards in the Wolverines' season-opener this year vs. Fresno State.

Lynn was asked if Orji reminded him of any other quarterback he's game-planned for, and he said no. He noted that while, yes, the Trojans successfully contained another mobile quarterback in Utah State's Bryson Barnes, they weren't perfect and he knows there are things Michigan will pick up from that game film and try to exploit.

"There was also some things that we need to improve on that Michigan probably saw that they're like, all right, we can capitalize on that," he said.

As for USC's defensive players, they emphasized that they still have to be true to the scheme and the identity of this defense and not change everything to account for one player.

"I don't think we're going to change any scheme -- maybe mindset, just understanding that if he doesn't like something he has the ability to take off and run and maybe make an explosive play," linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold said. "So we're just more aware of the situations that we're in and how we've got to handle that, but schematically no."

Said defensive end Jamil Muhammad: "It's definitely a challenge, and as a defense, as a team, we're up for the challenge. We're excited to play against somebody that's elusive like Alex. ... It's just all about trusting the scheme and trusting what we see, like our eyes. It's just all about being there for one another -- not necessarily leaving one man on an island -- and just playing as a cohesive unit."

Let's dive deeper into the highly-anticipated matchup as USC makes its Big Ten debut Saturday in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

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Game information

Who | No. 11 USC (2-0, 0-0 Big Ten) at No. 18 Michigan (2-1, 0-0)

Where | Michigan Stadium (The Big House), Ann Arbor, Michigan

When | 12:30 p.m. PT Saturday

TV | CBS with Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson and Jenny Dell

Radio | ESPN LA 710 AM with Pete Arbogast, Shaun Cody, Cody Kessler, Su’a Cravens, Jordan Moore and Jason Schwartz (includes 2-hour post-game show)

Betting line | USC -4.5, over/under 44

Series history | USC is 6-4 in 10 all-time meetings with Michigan, including just twice in a non-bowl game. This will be teams’ first meeting in 18 years -- the last meeting was the 2007 Rose Bowl, following 2006 season, which USC won 32-18. This will be USC’s first visit to Ann Arbor since 1958 and just the second time ever.

Statistical comparison

Sizing up the Trojans and Wolverines
USCStatisticMichigan

37.5 PPG (27th nationally)

Scoring

23.3 (T-98th)

10.0 PPG (T-18th)

Scoring defense

19.7 PPG (57th)

495.5 YPG (T-16th)

Total offense

329.3 YPG (106th)

305.5 YPG (55th)

Total defense

304.3 YPG (54th)

159.0 YPG (67th)

Rushing offense

176.33 YPG (50th)

100.0 YPG (33rd)

Rushing defense

70.0 YPG (15th)

336.5 YPG (7th)

Passing offense

153.0 (121st)

205.5 YPG (72nd)

Passing defense

234.3 YPG (90th)

1.5/game (T-94th)

Sacks

1.33/game (97th)

1.0/game (T-29th)

Sacks allowed

1.33/game (T-53rd)

+0.5/game (T-44th)

Turnover margin

-1.33/game (T-118th)

Michigan overview

Sherrone Moore is in his first season as head coach, succeeding Jim Harbaugh and taking the reins of the defending national champs.

Moore is a first-time head coach who has been with the Wolverines since 2018, first as tight ends coach, then co-offensive coordinator and offensive line coach and then OC/OL coach last year.

Kirk Campbell was promoted from QBs coach to offensive coordinator, a position he previously held with Old Dominion in 2020-21.

Meanwhile, the Wolverines also lost their defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who followed Harbaugh to the NFL. They replaced him with longtime NFL defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, who last coached college football in 2003 at Western Kentucky.

Michigan opened the season ranked 9th in the preseason AP poll, but the Wolverines lost 31-12 at home to Texas in Week 2 and then had their struggles last week in a 28-18 win over Arkansas State (although they led 28-3). They opened the season with a 30-10 win over Fresno State.

Michigan has a program-record 24-game winning streak in Big Ten play. It has won 24 of its last 25 home games, snapping a 23-game winning streak with the loss to Texas.

Scouting the Wolverines offense

As noted at the top, it's hard to know what kind of balance Michigan's offense may have with Alex Orji taking over at quarterback.

“I mean, you don’t play quarterback at this level without being able to throw the ball some," Riley said. "So, yeah, I mean, to sit there and think if he plays the entire game that they’re going to run it 70 times and throw it one time or something like that, I don’t think that’s going to be the case. So you definitely have to account for it because he's certainly a good enough thrower to make you pay."

Whatever the balance will be, it's a safe bet the Wolverines will lean heavily on their rushing attack.

Senior Donovan Edwards is a big name and one of the cover athletes of the new EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and he notably played a starring role in the national championship game last year with 104 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on just 6 carries vs. Washington. He had a career-high 991 rushing yards and 7 TDs in 2022 when he averaged a robust 7.7 yards per carry, but that number has dropped significantly down to 4.2 both last year and so far this season as he has 150 yards and a touchdown through three games.

The star in the backfield has been fifth-year senior Kalel Mullings, who already has a career-high 270 yards and 2 TDs on 7.5 YPC.

The Wolverines will look to move the ball behind a veteran offensive line led by fifth-year senior left tackle Myles Hinton (25 career starts but only 5 last season, between RT and C), fifth-year senior left guard Josh Priebe (a Northwestern transfer with 32 career starts), senior center Dominic Giudice (first-year starter), senior right guard Giovanni El-Hadi (6 starts) and sophomore right tackle Evan Link (first-year starter). The right side of the line has been the most vulnerable for the Wolverines.

The only returning full-time starter on offense for the Wolverines is tight end Colston Loveland, a first-team All-Big Ten selection last year with 45 catches for 649 yards and 4 TDs. Loveland is far and away the team's top target this season with 19 catches for 187 yards and 1 TD, but he left the game last week with an apparent upper body injury and his status for this week has been kept under wraps.

“Less serious that we thought — feel positive about that,” Moore said early in the week. “We’ll see as the week progresses.”

Junior Marlin Klein (4 catches for 50 yards) is the backup tight end. Sophomore Semaj Morgan has been the Wolverines' top receiver with 9 catches for 56 yards and a TD.


Scouting the Wolverines defense

The Wolverines have six defensive players with at least 15 starts, including some returning star power from the national title team with junior defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant and junior cornerback Will Johnson.

Graham (from Anaheim, California) and Grant are one of the best interior defensive line tandem in the country and combined for 12.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks last season.

Riley and USC tried to rally late in Graham's recruitment after he was hired late in that 2022 recruiting cycle, but he was locked in with Michigan at that point.

"Tremendous player, was one of the players that we attempted to get in on right when I got the job. Really enjoyed him and his family. It was just one of those things it was just too quick, there wasn't enough of a relationship there and he was far enough down the road with those guys that it was one of those things that things been earlier maybe it would have been different, maybe it wouldn't have, but a ton of respect for him," Riley said. "I enjoyed the time I had with him here right when I got hired, and no surprise to me to see the kind of player he's become."

On the edges, senior Josiah Stewart leads the way with 3.5 TFL and 2 sacks after totaling 8.5/5.5 last season.

At linebacker, junior Jaishawn Barham transferred in from Maryland. He and junior Ernest Hausmann are tied for the team lead with 14 tackles, as Hausmann has taken on a bigger role this season.

As noted, Will Johnson is one of the top cornerbacks in the country and had 4 interceptions and 4 pass breakups last season. He's already got a pick and 2 PBUs this season. On the other side is a first-year starter in sophomore Jyaire Hill.

Fifth-year senior safety Makari Paige (13 tackles, 1 INT, 2 PBUs so far) has 23 career starts, while fifth-year senior safety Quinten Johnson junior nickel Zeke Berry are first-year starters.

In its one game against a Power 4 opponent, Michigan allowed 389 yards to Texas (143 rushing, 246 passing) but 31 points.

Scouting the Wolverines special teams

Junior kicker Dominic Zvada, who transferred in before last season from Arkansas State, is 5 of 5 on field goals so far with a long of 55 as a new starter.

Returning punter Tommy Doman is averaging 38.22 yards on 9 punts with 6 fair catches and 2 inside the 20-yard line.

Semaj Morgan has handled all 3 punt returns, averaging 13.33 yards per attempt, and Kalel Mullings has been the team's best kick returner, averaging 24.67 yards on 3 returns.