Matchup breakdowns from both sides of the USC-Colorado clash
USC (4-3, 3-1) takes on Colorado (3-4, 1-3) in Boulder, Col., on Friday night at 6 p.m. PT on ESPN2.
The Buffaloes are struggling under first-year coach Mel Tucker, the former Georgia defensive coordinators.
They rank 124th out of 130 FBS teams in total defense (482.4 yards per game allowed) and 129th in pass defense (316 YPG), and the offense hasn't been able to bail them out often enough.
QB Steven Montez has passed for 1,723 yards, 10 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Star receiver Laviska Shenault is having a quiet season by his standards with 25 catches for 342 yards and 2 touchdowns while Tony Brown has a team-high 37 catches for 480 yards and 4 TDs. And Alex Fontenot has rushed for 568 yards and 4 TDs.
For more on the matchup, we bring in a couple of other perspectives in addition to our staff picks.
**Our TrojanSports.com analyst Max Browne, the former USC quarterback, delivers his weekly breakdown of the matchup.**
Max Browne's scouting report on Colorado's defense:
"When I was at 'SC, Colorado's defense in 2016 was one of the best in the country under Jim Leavitt. That defense had great corners, they were long, they were physical and they were stout up front. They had not elite athletes at linebacker, but very physical guys. They kind of had a good blend -- athleticism on the outside and not crazy athletes on the inside but kind of what you would expect from a Colorado linebacking corps. Just kind of meat and potatoes mindset guys. They were very effective. Now when you fast forward to 2019 and you turn on the film, they're not overly athletic out wide. I think they're fine athlete wise, but not overly athletic, and they're not big. And then they're just not physical up front and they don't have any dynamic guys up front either.
"You look across the board and it just kind of feels like a bunch of just guys out there and that's just kind of the honest truth. They're one of the worst defenses in the country. It's a group that if you're turning on the film and you're 'SC, you really think you can get after these guys. I don't turn on the film and you're like, 'Oh my gosh, this is an absolute gaping hole.' [But] on the same token, you turn on the film, I don't think anything [concerns] you if you're USC's offense. This is a defense you should get after. Their pass rush is not very good and Anthony Gordon, Washington State's quarterback, was sitting back there all day with time to throw. So I expect a big day out of 'SC's offense."
Max Browne's scouting report on Colorado's offense:
"[USC defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast's] first comment when Montez came up was the arm talent he has. He definitely has that, but I think he himself might have started drinking the Kool-Aid a few years back when everyone was high on him ... when everyone was like, 'This guy's great, he can make all throws.' To me, not to be an 'I told you so' guy, but I never was high on him. He would throw an absolute dime on a vertical route and then follow it up the very next play and skip an arrow route in the turf, and I was like, 'What is going on?' That just can't happen for a quarterback to take the next step, and I think finally this senior year it's really caught up to him. He looks casual at times with some of the stuff he's doing in terms of footwork. I know I'm getting on his case, but when you have all the talent and trajectory in the world and the opportunity he's had, it's a missed opportunity for sure.
"I think especially when you go back and what were we saying about this Colorado offense before the year started? We were saying, hey, Mel Tucker's going to bring the defensive mindset and Colorado already has the skill position players. You had Laviska Shenault, who's arguably the best receiver in the country, I know he's banged up, but you also have K.D. Nixon, their other receiver who I was high on, and fans were also fired up about their running game and Alex Fontenot. He's a great running back too. ... I just think this is an offense that hasn't taken the next step. With all that said, and I know I was tough on Steven Montez, but Steven Montez still has the talent and he could wake up on the right side of the bed Friday morning and he can do some things. He is dangerous with his feet, he is a big athletic guy. ... But just haven't seen it on a consistent basis."
**Listen to more of Max Browne's analysis on the Trojan Talk podcast**
**Justin Guerriero of CUSportsNation delivers perspective on the USC-Colorado matchup from the other side.**
Q: What would give Colorado a chance in this game, and what gives you confidence a Buffaloes' upset is possible?
Guerriero: "Well I think first and foremost the offense has got to find a way to get things going, clean up sloppy play in the red zone and score touchdowns. The overarching preseason prediction for the identity of the Buffaloes was that their offense, led by fifth-year senior QB Steven Montez and featuring an immensely talented WR corps included but not limited to Laviska Shenault, was going to be capable of scoring 30-35-plus points per game. The defense, which overall is young and lacking depth on the D-line and in the secondary, seemed destined to let up a lot of points. Long story short, Colorado's defense was expected to be shaky while its veteran offense was imagined to be capable of offsetting that and winning shootout-styled games.
"For the first three weeks of the season, it was the defense keeping the Buffs in games — getting a lot of turnovers, occasional timely stops, basically excelling in bending but not breaking. Conversely, the offense struggled to put together scoring drives and was plagued by befuddling periods of stagnation. It felt at times like the offense was asleep for two thirds of the game only to wake up and enter periods of hyper compensation to make up for it. Against Arizona State in game four (a Buffs win) and Arizona in game five (shootout loss), the contests ended in a fashion more suitable to the above preseason expectations I detailed, but the last two weeks (blowout losses to Oregon and Wazzu) have featured a Colorado offense that can't seem to do anything right.Colorado has scored 13 points in the last eight quarters of play with Montez throwing 0 TDs compared to 6 INTs in that span. The offense hasn't looked worse than it is looking right now.
"So coming back to your question, the Buffs have the weapons on offense capable of producing points and the defense has proven it can do just enough to keep games close or put that offense in a position to propel the team to wins. It's a shaky recipe for success, but it's the only way Colorado has been able to earn Ws. In closing, Colorado has to give USC its best shot in order to win — Montez has to get out of his slump, the offense in general can't blow opportunities in the red zone and the D has to hold the line."
Q: What's been the reaction to Mel Tucker's first season as head coach, and is it surprising the defense hasn't been better?
Guerriero: "Mel Tucker is well-liked by players, his assistants, the media and fans alike. He's really been impressive in his recruiting efforts while working to instill a hard-nosed, physical brand of football at CU. But Tucker isn't a miracle worker nor is he a magician. The bottom line is that his Buffaloes have suffered through quite a bit of injuries this season. Another preseason/fall camp storyline was the observation that injuries sustained by a thin-as-it-was secondary would have the potential to be disastrous. In other words, if there was a position group that could least afford injuries, it was the secondary. As it sits right now, Colorado has lost two CBs to season-ending injuries in Chris Miller (knee surgery) and Mekhi Blackmon (shoulder surgery).
"Starting strong safety Aaron Maddox just entered the transfer portal this week after what was whispered to be somewhat of a confrontation with Tucker in which he asked for a guarantee of playing time for the rest of the year, one which Tucker politely declined to give him. Right now at left and right corner, the Buffs are down to three players covering the two-deep roster spots. Both starting corners are true freshmen and one, K.J. Trujillo, however well-intentioned, is 165 pounds.
"Making matters worse have been injuries to a similarly young and thin defensive line. Junior DT Mustafa Johnson sprained an ankle vs. ASU and missed a few games afterwards. He's admitted that he isn't 100 percent right now. He got back into action vs. Washington State last weekend but only played 20 snaps due to precaution. Jalen Sami, a D-lineman who is Colorado's second-most experienced player in the trenches, has also been playing banged up as of late.
"Ultimately, I think Tucker is doing as best as he can given those above circumstances. Recruiting is looking good, he's done well in establishing an identity for the program, but at the end of the day a favorable ending in the win and loss column might not be a feasible possibility before late."
3. How would you evaluate QB Steven Montez's season?
Guerriero: "Steven Montez is an enigma. Give the guy credit, as a redshirt senior he's now worked with three OCs and QBs coaches, so overall his ability to work in different systems and schemes merits kudos. But perhaps the best way to explain him at this point in time, midway through his senior year, is that he is performing in a manner unbecoming of someone his age and with his experience as a starter.
"He's thrown six interceptions in his last two games and I'd argue that he's coming off two consecutive weeks that've featured him play the worst football of his career. Montez has a great arm and a lot of talent around him, but he has just totally lost his mojo in recent weeks. I think if he keeps it up he's going to play himself right out of the NFL draft. He's got the skill and experience necessary to be a game-changer for the Buffaloes and I don't doubt that he's capable of turning things around and re-finding his stride and confidence, but Montez is on a slippery slope to say the least."
4. What has limited WR Laviska Shenault this season and what do you expect of him Friday night?
Guerriero: "Laviska Shenault has been banged up himself somewhat frequently this season due to undisclosed injuries. If there's one guy the team keeps a wrap on in terms of ailments, it's him. I think his staggering lack of production — at least in comparison to last year — is partly due to those injuries and subsequent time missed plus opposing DBs covering him with much more dedication and attention due to his incredible 2018 season. Funny enough, despite Shenault being undoubtedly the most gifted athlete Colorado has, the Buffs are deepest/most talented at WR and in his absence, with his production down, others have stepped up. Senior Tony Brown leads the team with 480 yards, 37 catches and 5 TDs. He's been the MVP of the offense through seven games. Shenault is a dangerous weapon, but him getting shut down plays third or fourth fiddle right now in terms of prospective game happenings most likely to hamper CU's ability to win."
5. What's your prediction?
Guerriero: "From what I've seen recently, I don't know if Montez is capable of having a figure-it-all-out, completely back to normal and dominating performance this Friday. He very well might take steps in the right direction, but for Colorado to win, he needs to be in top shape. I'm not exactly sure that he's going to be capable of that against USC. I think he'll play a role in a game that features once again Colorado unable to fully capitalize on offensive chances, while despite no doubt a valiant effort, the defense will get worn down and break.Final score: USC 38, Colorado 21."