Is a five-star prospect really more valuable than a two-star prospect? The answer is yes, according to a recent study coming out of Ohio State University, and the difference is substantial.
In an effort to lend insight to the debate about paying college athletes, Stephen A. Bergman and Trevon D. Logan of Ohio State University’s Economics Department examined the value student-athletes bring to a program based on their star rating as college football prospects. The study used Rivals ratings as its data set “due to the length of the coverage of the service and its use in existing studies of player quality.”
The results of the Ohio State study assigned specific value to each star rating as it relates to team performance and revenue at the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) level. Each five-star prospect was determined to provide a value of $650,000 to their school, each four-star prospect provides $350,000 of value to the school and each three-star prospect provides $150,000 of value to the school. Two-star prospects were found to negatively impact team revenue by $13,000 per player.
The study concluded that “ratings of player quality are strongly related to school-specific football revenue and profit and may be predictive measures in a compensation scheme.”
These findings preceded the announcement from the NCAA’s Board of Governors this week that is expected to pave the way for student-athletes to profit from their name, image and likeness rights starting in the 2021-22 academic year. The highest governing body at the collegiate level is working up rule changes so that student-athletes no longer forfeit those rights in exchange for being allowed to play college athletics, and can profit from their name, image and likeness just as non-collegiate athletes can.
The Ohio State study was geared more toward a pay-for-play system that the NCAA still maintains it is adamantly against, but the conclusions could be interpreted for use in compensating student-athletes by way of sponsorships, endorsement deals, appearance fees, etc.
How this study ultimately impacts the name, image and likeness compensation discussion in college sports remains to be seen, but it does frame the conversation with specific monetary considerations. Evaluations of Rivals’ star rating system have repeatedly shown it to be an accurate predictor of success.
