Reporter Roundtable: Picks, predictions and perspective for USC at BYU
PROVO, Utah -- For the first time in quite a while, the USC football program has true momentum.
Momentum is always tenuous, though, and there are many both within the USC fan base and nationally looking to see if the Trojans and freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis can really back up what they showed last weekend in a 45-20 win over Stanford.
Slovis had statistically speaking the best first start by a true freshman Trojans QB in program history, completing 28 of 33 passes for 377 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions while sparking a surge of 35 unanswered points in that win.
No. 24 USC (2-0) moved back into the national rankings with that performance and now goes on the road for the first time to face a 1-1 BYU team coming off a couple of down seasons.
Kalani Sitake led the Cougars to a 9-4 finish in his first season, but he followed with records of 4-9 and 7-6 the last two years. So far this fall, BYU lost 30-12 at home to Utah and earned a 29-26 overtime win at reeling Tennessee.
The TrojanSports.com staff weighs in with picks, predictions and perspective on the matchup.
What do you expect from Kedon Slovis' encore and first road start?
Ryan Young: Slovis is not going to be almost perfect every week like he was in his first start, but what everyone saw last Saturday in the Coliseum was no mirage. He's had a staunch believer in offensive coordinator Graham Harrell since the spring, and he'll continue to add more and more believers with each mounting performance. That said, USC has an opportunity here to exploit a nice matchup on the ground. BYU ranks 128th out of 130 FBS teams in rush defense, giving up 252 rushing yards per game through the first two weeks. This would be a great time to feature running backs Vavae Malepeai, Stephen Carr and, yes, finally get redshirt freshman Markese Stepp truly involved as well. The coaches made a point to come out aggressive in the passing attack last week as a show of confidence in Slovis. That point has been made and reciprocated by the young QB. USC doesn't need to make any such statements this week. I think Slovis will still have a big game -- I'll say 275 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT -- but look for the rushing attack to be a major factor.
Tajwar Khandaker: With no previous context, my gut tells me that Slovis will be just fine, despite the raucous atmosphere in Provo. I think the Stanford game was a much more stressful and nerve-wracking test for the freshman, and seeing the way he handled that doesn’t leave me worried for his state of mind against the Cougars. BYU’s pass defense isn’t spectacular, and their pass rush in particular has been glaringly weak. I think Slovis once again will have lots of time in the pocket and he’ll run up 300-plus yards and a few touchdowns just like last week.
2. What stands out to you about this BYU matchup?
Ryan: I think the USC defense needs to be careful with BYU QB Zach Wilson and not let him get out of the pocket and scramble upfield as often as Fresno State QB Jorge Reyna did to the Trojans two weeks ago. Wilson is mobile -- he had 43 yards on 8 attempts in the loss to Utah and rushed 75 times for 221 yards over nine games last season. This will be a good test to see if USC has made the necessary adjustments with its pass rush to not create vulnerabilities against mobile QBs. Overall, though, I don't find the Cougars particularly daunting.
Tajwar: Zach Wilson is a legitimate gamer. Wilson was one of my favorite young quarterbacks in college football as a freshman last year, and although his numbers seem middling so far this season(440 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs), on film he’s the same player I loved so much a year ago. Wilson has the “it” factor that I always look for in quarterbacks -- he knows how to take over a game when he needs to. He’s an accurate thrower who makes good decisions (66-percent completions and 12 TDs to 3 INTs last year), and his arm strength is no joke either. Perhaps most dangerously for a Trojan defense that regularly struggles to contain mobile QBs, Wilson is a very good athlete who can both run the ball effectively himself and throw the ball well while moving outside of the pocket. No other part of BYU’s team looks especially daunting against what the Trojans have, but a quarterback like Wilson could very well break the game open against a young and largely untested secondary.
3. How much impact would defensive end Christian Rector's absence have if he is held out with his ankle injury?
Ryan: I really like what Rector brings to this defense, and there's a reason he's played more snaps than any Trojans defensive lineman. That said, I believe in the rotation and depth up front, so this doesn't worry me much. What will be interesting to see is how the Trojans adjust if Rector can't go -- and we don't know his status yet as he's a game-time decision. Rector has primarily lined up at right defensive end in the base package, and he slides over to the left side, usually sending Drake Jackson off the field, when USC brings in outside linebacker Hunter Echols to rush off the right edge. Either Echols will get more snaps or redshirt juniors Connor Murphy and Caleb Tremblay will rotate in as the second defensive end, but regardless I think the logical thing to do would be to keep Jackson, the impressive freshman, on the field more than he has been the first two games (perhaps playing the number of snaps Rector would ordinarily).
Tajwar: This is certainly not the ideal game for Rector’s absence. Although he’s had trouble finishing plays, Rector has been one of the most consistent producers of pressure for the Trojans so far. Losing him from a pass rush that’s already been underwhelming against a quarterback like Wilson would be a scary blow for the Trojan front. Connor Murphy played well last week, but it’s hard to bank on him doing so again with only one game to judge from. A mobile quarterback like Wilson can do tons of damage if allowed to buy time freely, and Rector’s absence might allow him to do just that.
4. What concern do you have about this USC team on the road?
Ryan: I am perhaps underrating the road effect in this matchup (and not giving enough weight to USC’s road struggles last year). I know in the preseason this game was lumped in with the other tough early challenges (vs. Stanford, vs. Utah, at Washington, at Notre Dame, etc.), but it just never seemed to fit for me. Not only has BYU struggled overall the last two years, but the Cougars haven't exhibited any home-field prowess whatsoever in that time. They went 3-3 at LaVell Edwards Stadium last fall, losing to Cal, Utah State and Northern Illinois while beating FCS McNeese State, Hawaii and New Mexico State. And in 2017, they were 2-4 at home with the only wins coming against Portland State and San Jose State and one of those losses coming against UMass. They got blown out in their opener to Utah at home this year, and maybe this team proves to have something it didn't in recent years, but USC just looks way more talented across the board. Slovis is as calm and even-keeled a QB as I've ever seen -- seriously. I don't think he'll get rattled, and I don't think the fans in Provo can do enough to swing the balance of this matchup.
Tajwar: The way the young secondary handles the atmosphere in Provo will be something to keep an eye on. A lot of the secondary is made up of emotional and aggressive personalities -- how they react to the BYU crowd might be a big factor in this game. They’re bound to give up a few big plays, and the roars of the crowd afterward will be new to most of them as they try to readjust and reset for the next play. If they start letting things get to their head, a slippery slope of mistakes might follow -- I’ve seen it from young DBs on the road many times.
5. What's your prediction?
Ryan: USC, 34-17. I don't think this one is ever in doubt and BYU tacks on a late touchdown to make the game look a little closer than it actually was. I expect USC to get out to a strong start and control the game from start to finish, with the rushing attack having a big day and Slovis looking poised and polished once again. At some point he's going to make another mistake on an aggressive throw, so I'm factoring in the potential for an interception, but regardless I think he shows again that the spotlight is not too bright for him.
Tajwar: USC, 42-28. Although I think Wilson will pose a strong challenge for the Trojan defense, I expect the USC offense to outpace BYU’s in a high-scoring game. Talented as Wilson is, BYU’s offensive line isn’t a great strength, and his receiving corps is very limited -- the USC defense will get its fair share of stops between scores. On the other hand, I don’t see much of a shot for this BYU defense to slow up Graham Harrell’s offense. The Cougars are poor at generating pressure and have struggled mightily against the run. I see USC marching right up and down the field throughout the night. So long as the Trojans don’t muck this one up mentally, I see them taking care of business Saturday.