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Published Nov 23, 2018
Reporters Roundtable: Picks and predictions for USC-Notre Dame
Ryan Young  •  TrojanSports
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Oddly, for a USC-Notre Dame rivalry showdown, there has been sparse talk about the actual game this week, at least here in Los Angeles.

The only storyline of interest continues to be the status and future of Trojans coach Clay Helton.

Technically, USC (5-6) is still playing for bowl eligibility, but that is unlikely to bring the supporters out in droves to the Coliseum at the end of what has been a lost season. Undefeated Notre Dame (11-0), meanwhile, is on track for a College Football Playoff berth if it can simply take care of business against the Trojans as 11-point favorites on Saturday.

While the banter swirling about Helton and what will happen in the next couple days carries far more intrigue to a frustrated fan base, here's at least some acknowledgement of the game to be played between the historic rivals as the TrojanSports.com staff give its picks, predictions and perspective.

1. What would USC have to do to have a shot at challenging for the upset Saturday?

Adam Maya: Run the ball decently. In the Trojans’ 12 losses since the beginning of the 2016 season, they’ve rushed for less than 165 yards in 11 of them. That total isn’t even noteworthy, by the way. Oregon State averages 164.8 rushing yards per game, good for 70th in the country. In case you’re wondering, USC ranks 102nd with 137.1 yards. That’s one of the biggest reasons it’s 5-6.

Tajwar Khandaker: It’s really hard to find any path for USC to leave the Coliseum with a win. The Trojans are outmatched in all three phases of the game -- badly. The biggest “weakness” I see in this Notre Dame team is its run defense, though the Fighting Irish are no slouches in that department either. But they have been beat there before (Wake Forest rushed for 259 yards on them and Navy went for 292, albeit with a triple-option offense). I doubt USC’s offensive line has it in them at this point, but if they can will together an effort like the one we saw weeks ago at Arizona or in Corvallis, the Trojans' running backs are plenty capable. That’s the only possible avenue I could see for USC to win this game -- play ball control, keep it on the ground and win the time of possession battle. They’re not going to stop the Irish on the other side of the ball, but if they can keep the ball out of their hands as much as possible and limit explosive plays, they could have a sliver of hope. I’d definitely avoid betting on it, though.

Ryan Young: While that is the way the Trojans should try to compete in this game, I simply don't see it happening. Throw out the Navy game -- because all Navy does is run -- and Notre Dame hasn't allowed more than 132 rushing yards to any other opponent in the last two months. Sure, there weren't many great teams on the schedule in that stretch (Stanford, Virginia Tech, Pittsburg, Navy, Northwestern, Florida State and Syracuse), but USC certainly isn't a great team either. Notre Dame held a capable Stanford ground attack to a lowly 55 rushing yards on 24 attempts, held Pitt (the No. 15th rushing offense nationally) to 116 yards on the ground and limited Syracuse (No. 32 rushing offense) to 119 yards on the ground. (And if you want to go all the way back to the opener, the Irish held Michigan to 58 yards on 33 carries).

All of this is to say I don't expect USC to be able to run the football Saturday. And as we all know by now, that means the Trojans will inevitably fall back on their downfield passing attack while hoping enough of those shots hit to make this game interesting. Is that a recommended strategy for success? No, as evidenced time and again this fall for USC, but that's how I see the game going, so consequently I think the Trojans will need to make several big plays through the air against a very good Notre Dame secondary to have a chance.

2. Conversely, what element of this undefeated Notre Dame team could have the biggest impact on making this a lopsided win for the Irish?

Adam: Clay Helton called Notre Dame’s front seven the best USC will have faced all season. I was tempted to lay down big money on the Fighting Irish right then and there, especially when i heard the line was hovering around 10. A good front seven has been the USC offense’s Kryptonite. Since USC struggles to run and struggles to protect and struggles to implement a short, quick passing game, I’m fascinated to find out how exactly this offense will try to function Saturday. If only there was a quarterback on the roster that could counteract these troubling tendencies.

Ryan: That's probably the right answer, but for the sake of variety I'll highlight the other side of the ball. Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book has been highly impressive this season since seizing that job. In the seven full games he's played, Book has averaged 300.4 passing yards. Even on his best days, Biggie Marshall can only defend one part of the field for USC. I could see Book and the Fighting Irish doing as other teams have this fall and consistently attacking that other side with success. Coupled with what I expect to be a tough day for the USC offense, if Notre Dame complements its competent rushing attack and delivers some big plays of its own through the air, that's one way this game could really lose its competitiveness quickly.

Tajwar: The Irish pass defense is stellar. They’ve held opponents to an average of 184.3 yards through the air on a completion rate of 53.9 percent and their dominant secondary is a huge part of that. Objectively, they’ve been one of my favorite units to watch in college football this year. Julian Love is an elite cornerback who will probably be playing on Sundays next fall -- his ability to play the football in the air is exceptional. Across from him, Troy Pride has played at a high level all year as well. Safety Jalen Elliott is a rangy playmaker back deep, and his battering mate Drue Tranquill does great work closer to the box.

This will be the best secondary JT Daniels will have faced all year by far -- and what we’ve seen from him against much weaker competition doesn’t inspire optimism for Saturday. Not to mention the fact that the Irish have a potential first-round pick on the interior of their defensive line in Jerry Tillery who could make life miserable for Daniels all night long.

3. Among the seniors potentially playing their final game with USC this week, who will be hardest to replace next year?

Adam: There’s only one correct answer here -- Biggie Marshall. While Cam Smith is USC’s best senior, and maybe the best player on the team, his replacement, Palaie Gaoteote, is not only promising but has a higher ceiling. There isn’t a good replacement for Marshall, especially since USC never replaced his 2017 running mate Jack Jones. Competition at cornerback will be wide open next year and include players who either struggled, barely played or didn’t play at all in 2018. Marshall’s play might be polarizing for some, but he’ll be appreciated next season when he’s gone.

Ryan: Exactly. Cornerback has been an issue for USC all season and it could be even more so next fall without Marshall balancing things out with his usually strong play. Factor in that the Trojans are also losing the two players who manned nickel most of the season -- Ajene Harris and Jonathan Lockett -- and that whole coverage unit will be the glaring question heading into next season.

Tajwar: The loss of Biggie Marshall is going to sting in a big way. He’s been the only consistent player in the secondary. It's terrifying to think what the Trojans' pass defense would’ve looked like without him this season. The worst part is there are no young cornerbacks who’ve been groomed properly to replace him. Olaijah Griffin has barely played, there hasn't been anything to evaluate yet from Isaac Taylor-Stuart and Greg Johnson struggled mightily when he played this year, leaving the cupboard looking pretty bare at the position.

4. Despite our track record, let’s stay consistent and deliver one more pick to click (who surely won’t click).

Adam: Let the record show I believe this to be an evil exercise that should have been discontinued by Week 4 at the latest. I’m only answering so I don’t get fined. When healthy, Michael Pittman has been USC’s best player for the better part of two months. He says he’s coming back for his senior season. He wants to be remembered as a USC great. (He’s also fully behind his head coach.) In other words, he’s committed. Notre Dame is a game to stamp your legacy in. USC is a longshot to win, but Pittman is a good bet to show up and do his part.

Ryan: I'm going to ride a hunch and say Tyler Vaughns has a productive game. I've already stated the Trojans will likely have to hit on some big shots downfield to have a chance, and I'm sure the Notre Dame defense is looking at Pittman as its biggest threat and point of emphasis. But given our aforementioned track record with these picks, we've probably just doomed the entire USC passing attack.

Tajwar: I will roll with my whichever running back gets the most work -- Aca’Cedric Ware (who was limited in practice with his shoulder injury) or Vavae Malepeai. I seriously doubt the Trojans gain much against Notre Dame through the air.

5. What's your prediction?

Adam: Five times before, USC has played an unbeaten Notre Dame team late in the season and managed to come away without a loss -- 1938, 1948, 1964, 1970 and 1980. One of those includes a tie game (1948) and another one came against a Notre Dame team that had a tie on its record already (1980). The 1970 matchup would be the closest to this one, as USC was 5-4-1 at kickoff and the Fighting Irish were No. 4. The Trojans won, 38-28. That is the type of score I think USC would need to pull off the historic upset. But nothing from the past two months (two seasons?) suggests that being possible. Notre Dame 38, USC 17.

Ryan: Notre Dame just has way too much on the line and USC way too little for me to expect anything other than the Fighting Irish taking care of business on their way to the College Football Playoff. The Irish have been remarkably consistent all season, while the Trojans have consistently had a hard time combatting in-game momentum swings and adversity, so I don't expect this to be close either. Notre Dame 45, USC 21.

Tajwar: USC is so badly outmatched in every phase of this game it feels like some sadistic punishment that it's even being played and that we all have to watch it unfold. I expect this nightmare of a season for the Trojans to come to a fitting end as they get throttled by their rivals at home and end the year with a losing record for the first time in nearly two decades. Notre Dame 52, USC 14.

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