Reporters Roundtable: Staff picks and predictions for USC-UCLA
If this USC football team is going to become bowl eligible, that almost certainly requires a win this week as it's hard to fathom the Trojans upending unbeaten Notre Dame in the regular-season finale.
And, to be frank, if the Trojans (5-5, 4-4 Pac-12) can't beat a 2-8 UCLA team, then any bowl thoughts should be moot anyway.
The Bruins have struggled in coach Chip Kelly's debut season. They had back-to-back wins over Arizona and Cal in October, but they've since lost three straight to Utah, Oregon and Arizona State to start a new slide.
The Bruins' offense looked better last week in that 31-28 loss to ASU with Wilton Speight commanding all the snaps at quarterback, as he passed for 335 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. But the defense remains a major problem.
UCLA ranks 101st nationally in both scoring defense, giving up 33.3 points per game, and total defense (442.0 yards per game allowed).
While USC hasn't been very good either this fall, the Trojans have won the last three installments of the rivalry series and will look to continue that streak Saturday in the Rose Bowl.
The TrojanSports.com staff weighs in with its picks, predictions and perspective on the matchup and the storylines of the week:
1. In light of the comments from Clay Helton and his players this week regarding his future, how do you expect the Trojans to finish the season?
Adam Maya: I haven’t made much of a connection between how the players perform and Helton’s status. Their respective focus and motivation doesn’t seem to hinge upon the dialogue being had outside the locker room. I’m sure that would be different if they felt they had to win one or both of these final games in order for Helton to return. Since that doesn’t appear to be the case, at least according to everything we’re hearing coming out of the McKay Center, how the Trojans close out the season will largely come down to what it has all season: how long can they play well in each game. UCLA necessitates only so much, while Notre Dame requires considerably more.
Ryan Young: I've said all along that I don't sense that Helton has lost the locker room. But I also don't know that he has the answers to help this team find its way either. I wouldn't expect a drop-off in effort, but this team is flawed enough to possibly finish on a three-game losing streak all the same. If that happens, I have to think Helton's return is not a foregone conclusion. I do think the powers that be want to avoid making any change, and if he shows he hasn't lost control of the team and has them ready to play and win this rivalry game, that may give AD Lynn Swann and company the affirmation they seek. But despite Helton's resolute affirmation that he's returning and Swann's previous comments of support, a season-ending tailspin is hard to ignore and, I would think, at least force more scrutiny of the situation.
Tajwar Khandaker: At this point I find it hard to believe we’ll see a significant change in the Trojans' play -- they are what they are. There have been at least three points this season where we thought we’d see this team seriously make changes only to see the same week after week. I expect this team to close out the year no differently. They’ll look undisciplined, have stretches of good play and fail to ever establish any kind of rhythm. It might be enough to notch a win Saturday, but it’ll get them their third straight home loss against Notre Dame next week.
2. What do you make of QBs coach Bryan Ellis' comment that Matt Fink will pass Jack Sears on the depth chart once he's cleared to play?
Adam: It suggests that Sears isn’t viewed as a viable starter right now, much less a threat to overtake Daniels. I thought he was clearly the second-best quarterback coming out of training camp and was surprised when he was listed third on the initial depth chart. Now three weeks removed from his lone start, Sears’ dynamic showing appears to hold less significance. Just know that his teammates haven’t forgotten what he did against Arizona State. Sears says it proved he can play college ball at a high level. I would go one step further: It proved he might be USC’s best quarterback right now, and the staff should do their due diligence to find out whether that’s the case.
Ryan: While I'm in the minority who isn't convinced there should be a quarterback controversy between Sears and starter JT Daniels -- mainly because I think there are ramifications for showing a public lack of confidence in a guy with very real long-term upside -- I do not think there should be any question about the No. 2 spot. Sears is a more talented quarterback than Fink and proved himself in his lone opportunity this fall. It all may be moot unless Daniels comes out of another game, but I think the coaches would be doing a bigger disservice to Sears by ignoring what he showed them vs. Arizona State than they would be by having Fink lose his No. 2 spot due to injury. The only way it would make sense is if Sears has conveyed to the staff that he intends to transfer after the season, but that is the opposite of what he has stated rather emphatically this fall when asked about the matter.
Tajwar: This has bothered me since the first depth chart was released. I couldn’t explain it then and I can’t explain it now. Sears was the clear-cut No. 2 guy in camp, and his performance in the ASU game made it look like he might even be the right guy for the starting job. No disrespect to Matt Fink, but Sears is either the best or second best quarterback on the team right now -- it’s senseless to have him as the third-stringer, especially considering the transfer implications. I don’t know about the conversations between Sears and his coaches on his future, but you’d think that putting a player as talented as him that low on the depth chart would push him to leave at the first opportunity. I don’t know what to make of the situation other than the fact that it’s being handled incorrectly.
3. What significance does the UCLA rivalry game hold for this USC team this season?
Adam: Historically, this year’s matchup is unfortunately a dud. USC can earn a bowl berth (that it probably wouldn’t the following week against Notre Dame), while UCLA can claim its most significant win of an awful season. So it probably won’t mean a ton for USC in the present, not after everything the players have been through. But it’s definitely more than a footnote for when their college careers are completed. Every Trojan leaves the program remembering exactly how many wins they had against UCLA (and Notre Dame).
Ryan: I'm of the belief that rivalry games always matter. If nothing else, extending the streak to four straight wins over UCLA keeps that run going so that future teams can build upon it and give the fan base a point of pride to bring up every time this game comes around. I do wonder these days if rivalry games are as important to the players as they are to fans, but I'm sure the seniors would rather say they went 4-0 against UCLA than the alternative. I also think it's more significant now with Chip Kelly representing a new era for the Bruins -- one of great optimism despite the rough debut season -- as the schools do go head-to-head for a number of key recruits. The outcome of one game may not and should not be the deciding factor for those prospects, but it can't hurt to win.
Tajwar: Winning this game isn’t as important as not losing it. After this disaster of a season, a loss to UCLA would sting like no other -- it would mean that the Trojans would likely lose 3 straight to close to the season, finish with a sub-.500 record for the first time in 18 years and embarrass themselves by falling to a poor iteration of their cross-town rivals. Nothing could be more demoralizing to the team and its fanbase. If the Trojans win it won’t be too big of a deal, but they can’t afford to lose.
4. Who's your offensive pick to click this week?
Adam: I want to go running back, but I hesitate since both Aca’Cedric Ware and Vavae Malepeai were limited in practice this week. I still expect them to receive a healthy amount of carries, with Markese Stepp in line for his biggest role yet. So let’s say Ware anyway. He’s in the midst of a fabulous stretch of play and is now in realistic pursuit of 1,000 yards. Having a big game against UCLA has been somewhat of a rite of passage for USC starting backs in recent years. Here’s guessing the senior from Texas has built up an emotional disdain for the Bruins by now. He’s also had just seven career carries in two games against UCLA. A big game Saturday would continue his redemption tour.
Ryan: I feel good putting my confidence behind Aca'Cedric Ware this week. UCLA has really struggled against the run, giving up 215.5 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. In recent weeks, Arizona State's Eno Benjamin rushed for 182 yards (on 34 carries), Oregon had rushers go for 90 and 73 yards and Utah's Zack Moss (before his injury) rumbled for 211 yards and 3 touchdowns (on 26 carries). Ware, meanwhile, has rushed for 308 yards over the last two games while averaging a modest 16.5 carries. Maybe, just maybe, the coaching staff gives him more touches to let him chase 1,000 yards -- he needs 270 more. Also, he's averaging 6.9 yards per carry for the season, so he may not even need an increased workload to do damage yet again.
Tajwar: Give me Aca’Cedric Ware once again. He’s been great in recent weeks, and with his last two games as a Trojan ahead of him I can see him getting a good number of touches on Saturday. He’ll be facing a weak UCLA rush defense, and I expect him to fully take advantage of it. I don’t usually put stat predictions on here, but I’ll take a swing -- 140 yards and a TD.
5. What's your prediction?
Adam: I foolishly said UCLA had no chance of winning this game during a podcast several weeks back. My view of the Bruins isn’t especially different. I just couldn’t have foreseen USC’s offensive malaise carrying on this much for this long. The Trojans will surely fare better this weekend than they did against Cal, while also likely giving up more on defense. My guess is we’re in for a competitive game that USC will only lose if it turns the ball over multiple times. I’ve witnessed this rivalry long enough to know it often gets weird at the Rose Bowl (in Novembers) and nothing is guaranteed. So maybe stay away from any betting action and try to enjoy the home-and-home uniforms on a sunny afternoon. USC 31, UCLA 23.
Ryan: I've lost all confidence in predicting the outcome of these games for USC. But I'll once again stubbornly apply logic to the proceedings and think that USC wins because its flawed defense is a little better than UCLA's flawed defense and because the Trojans have more offensive playmakers. I advise caution in putting any stock in this prediction, but I'll go USC 28, UCLA 21.
Tajwar: Despite all their flaws, this Trojans team should be much better than this UCLA squad. On paper, they’re better almost all the way across the board. I do think the UCLA offense might give the Trojans some trouble -- containing tight end Caleb Wilson will be a nightmare for them -- but I think USC finds a way to put up enough points to stay ahead. 31-21, USC.