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Published Jul 29, 2024
Three thoughts and a prediction for USC's QBs entering fall camp
Ryan Young  •  TrojanSports
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USC opens fall camp on Friday, kicking off a month of practices and position battles leading into the marquee season-opener against LSU in Las Vegas on Sept. 1.

There is, of course, no uncertainty about the quarterback depth chart, however.

Redshirt junior Miller Moss gets his long-awaited opportunity to be QB1 for the school he grew up rooting for, looking to build on his expectations-raising first career start last December when he passed for 372 yards, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception in the Holiday Bowl win over Louisville.

Moss didn't just assert himself in his first turn under the spotlight -- he asserted himself as the leader of the team in a transformational month for the Trojans in which they put a forgettable 2023 season behind them and turned the page in bowl practices.

Coach Lincoln Riley essentially acknowledged that any plans to bring in a proven, veteran quarterback from the transfer portal -- like, say, Will Howard from Kansas State -- changed when Moss unleashed his eye-popping performance. Again, though, Riley has also said the decision to look instead for a younger transfer QB to add depth and competition, came as much from the way Riley saw Moss command the team during that month of December.

A year ago, many might have expected USC's 2024 starting quarterback to be a high-profile transfer or maybe five-star Malachi Nelson (who instead transferred to Boise State after just one year in the program). Moss has been counted out plenty during his three years in the program, but now, he enters preseason camp as the unquestioned starter and leader of this offense while replacing 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, with UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava and former JUCO transfer Jake Jensen rounding out the position.

While there isn't any depth chart drama entering fall camp, there's still plenty to talk about, and we start the week by delivering our top three thoughts and a prediction for USC's QB group.

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Three thoughts on USC's QBs entering fall camp ...

1. Miller Moss one of the more underrated QBs nationally

Despite his breakout performance in the Holiday Bowl, Moss is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country entering this season in terms of national buzz. Even if one chooses not to extrapolate too much from the small sample size of Moss' lone career start, at the very least, there should be some expectation of what any starting quarterback will do in a Lincoln Riley offense.

Here's what every starting QB has done under Riley since he became a FBS offensive coordinator in 2015-16 at Oklahoma and then his seven seasons as a head coach there and at USC.

2015 Oklahoma, Baker Mayfield: 3,700 passing yards, 36 TDs, 7 INTs, 405 rushing yards, 7 TDs

2016 Oklahoma, Mayfield: 3,965 passing yards, 40 TDs, 8 INTs, 177 rushing yards, 6 TDs

2017 Oklahoma, Mayfield: 4,627 passing yards, 43 TDs, 6 INTs, 311 rushing yards, 5 TDs (1 receiving TD), Heisman Trophy

2018 Oklahoma, Kyler Murray: 4,361 passing yards, 42 TDs, 7 INTs, 1,001 rushing yards, 12 TDs, Heisman Trophy

2019 Oklahoma, Jalen Hurts: 3,851 passing yards, 32 TDs, 8 INTs, 1,298 rushing yards, 20 TDs, runner-up for Heisman Trophy

2020 Oklahoma, Spencer Rattler (11 starts): 3,031 passing yards, 28 TDs, 7 INTs, 160 rushing yards, 6 TDs

*2021 Oklahoma, Rattler (6 starts): 1,483 passing yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs, 77 rushing yards, 3 TDs

*2021 Oklahoma, Caleb Williams (7 starts): 1,912 passing yards, 21 TDs, 4 INTs, 442 rushing yards, 6 TDs

2022 USC, Williams: 4,537 passing yards, 42 TDs, 5 INTs, 382 rushing yards, 10 TDs, Heisman Trophy

2023 USC, Williams (12 starts): 3,633 passing yards, 30 TDs, 5 INTs, 142 rushing yards, 11 TDs

Let's separate the 2021 season at Oklahoma where Riley made a QB change mid-season simply because there's no way to say what either Williams or Rattler would have done stat-wise over a full year.

Looking at every other season, the lowest production was Rattler's redshirt freshman season in which he averaged 275.5 passing yards per game with 28 touchdowns and 7 picks.

That would have ranked 20th nationally in passing yards per game last season and tied for 12th in total passing touchdowns.

There's absolutely no reason to think Moss can't hit those marks or better. He is an accurate passer who has a total command of Riley's offense after two and a half years together, has both the trust of his teammates and great rapport with USC's young corps of receivers and already showed what he's capable of in that Holiday Bowl performance.

We'll circle back to this in our prediction segment ...

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