Published Dec 27, 2023
TrojanSports Roundtable: Staff perspective, predictions for USC-Louisville
Ryan Young  •  TrojanSports
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SAN DIEGO -- Lincoln Riley commented last week how unique this Holiday Bowl experience is for USC this year in that "it’s almost like you’re halfway into this year and halfway into next year."

His point being, the Trojans haven't played a game in six weeks, a number of the key players from this season have already moved on either to focusing on the NFL draft or to the transfer portal, Riley has overhauled the defensive staff and the majority of the focus has been on roster building for 2024. Yet, USC still has a matchup with a top-20 opponent.

Given all that, it's anyone's guess how the 7-5 Trojans will look Wednesday vs. No. 15-ranked Louisville (10-3) in the Holiday Bowl.

"It is a unique game," Riley reiterated Tuesday. "[Louisville coach Jeff Brohm] and I were talking about it on the aircraft carrier the other day [as part of the bowl experience]. It is a unique game in terms of the new players, the different players that are going to be available, how you piece it together, how you handle these last several weeks. It's been a little bit longer time for us than Louisville, obviously, with the way our schedule set up. Six weeks -- we're ready to play."

Win or lose, the outcome Saturday won't do much to change the way the 2023 USC football season is remembered -- as a great disappointment for a team that was at one point 6-0, ranked in the top-10 and eyeing a College Football Playoff berth.

But that doesn't mean it's without purpose. Quite the contrary.

As the Trojans will be without star quarterback Caleb Williams (NFL draft opt-out), running back MarShawn Lloyd (NFL draft opt-out), wide receiver Brenden Rice (NFL draft opt-out), wide receivers Mario Williams and Michael Jackson III (transfer portal), tight ends Lake McRee (injury) and Jude Wolfe (transfer portal), cornerbacks Christian Roland-Wallace (NFL draft opt-out) and Domani Jackson (transfer portal), safety Calen Bullock (NFL draft opt-out) and others, it's a prime opportunity for others to showcase themselves for future roles.

Most notably, of course, third-year quarterback Miller Moss, who will make his first collegiate start after attempting 59 passes over the last three seasons (for 542 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs with 2 rushing TDs).

"I'm excited for him, I really am. He's had a unique journey in his time -- the year before we came in and even the last two years -- he's a guy that has really hung in there. He's continued to put in work even though he wasn't the starter. He's learned our offense as good as any player on our roster and I think really earned the respect of the team. I know the coaching staff, the players around him are all really excited for him to play -- there's no question about it. Excited to see him get his opportunity," Riley said.

"... I think he's taken advantage of this six-week buildup to this. We've been able to pump a ton of reps into him, I know he's very confident in what we do and how we're going to do it and now you got to go execute it against a really good defense. That'll be obviously a big challenge but one I feel he's ready for. He understands the opportunity that's here. You can argue he's been waiting three years for an opportunity like this, so he's very ready to play and the guys are ready to play around him."

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Beyond Moss, it will be a prime opportunity for freshman running back Quinten Joyner, freshmen wide receivers Zachariah Branch (to play an even larger role than normal), Duce Robinson and Ja'Kobi Lane, cornerbacks Jacobe Covington and Prophet Brown, safeties Tre'Quon Fegans and Anthony Beavers, etc.

On the other side, Louisville started the season 10-1 with a win over Notre Dame before losing to rival Kentucky to close the regular season and then to Florida State in the ACC championship game.

The Cardinals will be without a number of players as well -- most notably star running back Jawhar Jordan (1,128 rushing yards and 13 TDs) and top wide receiver Jamari Thrash (858 yards and 6 TDs receiving).

No receiver on Louisville's roster had even half as many as Thrash's 63 receptions, so that will be an interesting reality for quarterack Jack Plummer (who played against USC last year while at Cal) to navigate. Plummer has passed for 3,063 yards, 21 TDs and 12 INTs.

Without Jordan, the Cardinals' rushing attack should lean on Isaac Guerendo (649 rushing yards and 8 TDs on 6.0 YPC).

But most importantly, perhaps, Louisville looks to be at full strength on the defensive side after ranking No. 16 nationally in yards allowed (307.4 per game) and 23rd in points allowed (19.7 per game).

"We've been fortunate enough to play a lot of guys throughout the season. So, with some people from our team that aren't participating, we have guys ready to step up and showcase what they're all about," Brohm said. "A lot of these guys have played to a certain degree up to this point -- others maybe not as much -- but this is their chance to showcase what they're made of and get on the big stage against a great opponent and try to produce at a high level."

Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. PT (on FOX) from Petco Park.

To get you ready for the Trojans' 2023 finale, our TrojanSports.com staff came traded perspectives and predictions on the matchup and the storylines.

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TrojanSports.com staff Roundtable

What are your expectations for Miller Moss on Wednesday and for the 2024 QB position?

Ryan Young: "It feels odd to say that not having Caleb Williams a part of this game has added more intrigue to it, but that's truly the case as Miller Moss gets his long-awaited opportunity. While Moss has downplayed the importance this showcase will have on his hopes for landing the starting job in 2024, I personally think it means everything for his chances. Lincoln Riley is continuing to evaluate the QB transfer market and will surely bring someone in to join that competition, but how Moss plays Wednesday could go a long way to shaping Riley's expectations entering the spring. While he has talked plenty about Moss' progress in their two years together, his command of the offense, his leadership, etc., he's never truly been able to evaluate him in a game -- against a top-20 defense. If Moss comports himself well in that setting and produces, it would give him a lot of momentum heading into the spring and maybe influence what the Trojans do on the transfer market -- though he's going to have to compete for the job, regardless. If he struggles, it will hasten the priority for Riley to find an established transfer QB, who will then be coming in as the favorite to win the job.

"So what do I expect? I think Moss will be solid enough, will execute the offense well and make smart decisions. What I want to see if he'll be aggressive as a playmaker and trust his arm and his teammates in taking shots downfield. That's the unknown variable to me. I'll guess he passes for between 200-250 yards, a couple touchdowns and maybe a rushing score with one or fewer interceptions. That would be encouraging -- but to stake any sort of claim to the starting job in 2024 I think he'll need to show an extra level and exceed those numbers."

Tajwar Khandaker: "The game situations Moss has seen snaps in have almost exclusively been on the tail-end of blowouts, without complicated scenarios or intricate play calls to manage as he worked to melt away the clock. Though we haven’t seen much of Moss over the course of his three years as a Trojan, what little we have seen has given me confidence that he’s at least capable of manning the helm. In that limited action, Moss has shown some of the core skills conducive to solid play at the quarterback position. He throws an accurate football with a pleasant amount of zip, his footwork in the pocket is clean, and he’s shown some skill running with the ball in his hands, especially for a guy most have been quick to write off as 'unathletic.' Nothing we’ve seen so far indicates that any of Moss’s physical traits are exceptional, but he seems to check the boxes well enough for the intangibles to take him further. It’s those intangibles that have yet to be tested. How does he respond to pressure? Can he make the right decisions consistently within the context of his reads? Is he able to create on his own when things don’t go as planned? Those answers can only be found with time on the field and will determine how successful Moss can be as the Trojans’ quarterback.

"Though the absence of some of the Trojans' top playmakers and question marks along the offensive line might put him in a tough position against a strong Louisville defense, Moss will have plenty of dynamic pass-catchers to work with in an offensive scheme that will surely give him plenty of layup opportunities early. Given the weight of this moment for him as the one chance he might ever have to stake his claim for the QB1 role in live action, we can be sure that Moss will give this game his best shot. Though I’m as curious as anyone as to what the efficacy of that effort looks like, I’m inclined to think Moss will acquit himself well. I expect some sloppy moments and miscues like you’d expect of a quarterback in his first start, but I think the overall body of positive plays the young signal-caller will leave on the field will outweigh them.

"If I had to take a stab at predicting his stat line, I’d go with something like 270 yards and 3 touchdowns on a completion percentage of 64%, with two turnovers alongside. Regardless of how Moss plays, I expect this team to bring on two quarterbacks from the portal, though I’d wager only one will really be in a position to compete with Moss for the job. How that competition goes, I won’t be able to guess at until we see how he performs in this game and until we know who it is he’ll be competing with.

Jeff McCulloch: "I think Miller Moss is going to play a very efficient game on Wednesday against Louisville. Even though USC has lost some talent on the offensive side of the ball, the Trojans are still going to have plenty of playmakers for the QB. The offense loses a good running back in MarShawn Lloyd to the draft but replaces him with veteran Austin Jones and exciting freshman Quinten Joyner, who is going to be fighting for a big role next year. The offense loses Mario Williams, Michael Jackson III and Brenden Rice, but that just means more targets for Duce Robinson, Ja'Kobi Lane and Zachariah Branch. Bottom line, Moss will have plenty of talented players to throw to or hand the ball off to. There has been so much talk about how confident the team is in Moss that I expect him to perform at the very least average. However, if he wants to win this job for the next season, he needs to perform better than that and show he can lead this team.

"Trojan fans just can’t compare him to Caleb Williams. We will not see another player as talented as Williams for quite a while. Let Moss play his game and let’s see how he will perform in the spotlight. I just hope he doesn’t feel all the outside pressure to fill Williams’s shoes and make unforced errors.

"As for next season? I have no clue how this is all going to play out. For the first time in his career, Lincoln Riley is having trouble getting a quarterback. Malachi Nelson entering the transfer portal was a complete surprise to him and caught him off guard. Will Howard seemed like the answer to come in and compete with Moss for the starting quarterback spot, but his visit was a month ago so why hasn’t he committed yet? And Riley wants to get two quarterbacks in the portal -- one experienced and one younger player. If he wants a younger quarterback, he could look Oregon backup QB Ty Thompson. While I clearly understand the quarterback concerns, I think you just need to trust Riley. No one develops quarterbacks like him. Whoever Riley gets to be his quarterbacks, I trust he can develop them into the player he needs them to be."

What is the most intriguing offensive storyline Wednesday aside from Moss?

Ryan: "For me, it's freshman running back Quinten Joyner. Going back to the spring game, Joyner has flashed in every opportunity he's been given. He turned just 16 carries this season into 124 yards (7.8 YPC) and a touchdown, and he should get ample opportunities to touch the ball Wednesday while splitting backfield work with veteran Austin Jones. Even though USC brought in experienced Mississippi State RB transfer Jo'Quavious Marks for 2024, I think Joyner emerges as the lead back next fall and the Holiday Bowl could be his springboard to a big year ahead."

Tajwar: "With Brenden Rice opting out of the game to turn his focus to the NFL draft and Michael Jackson III and Mario Williams gone to the transfer portal, that leaves behind an inexperienced yet highly-talented pool of receivers for Moss to work with, and their ability to step up to the plate will go a long way toward determining what the Trojans offense looks like in this contest. Veterans like Dorian Singer and Kyron Hudson will likely be asked to step up despite having seen few targets over the course of the year, while more untested young talents like Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane will have a bigger opportunity to prove themselves.

"With that said, all eyes should be on the five-star freshman duo of Zachariah Branch and Duce Robinson, both of whom made a splash in their limited opportunities through the season. Though neither young receiver took over as a consistent pass-catching option down the stretch, both showed the ability to make big plays on every target their way -- Branch with his incomparable speed and agility, Robinson with his massive, mobile frame. Both players will be asked to step up in a way that they were never really asked to during the season, and I’m intrigued to see how they answer the bell. Robinson in particular is worth watching closely, given the chemistry he and Moss consistently showed with one another whenever the backup quarterback found himself taking snaps."

Jeff: "I’m very intrigued on what wide receiver steps up in this game. If I am Luke Huard or Dennis Simmons, I would be showing the wide receiver room Brenden Rice’s Tulane tape. Rice used the momentum he got from his huge bowl performance last year to go and have a breakout season this fall. My prediction is that guy is going to be Duce Robinson. He has certainly flashed his skills out on the field and seems to have good chemistry with Moss. It will also be interesting to see how Dorian Singer will be used in this game. It seemed like he has fallen down on the depth chart and hasn’t received as many snaps as he was in the beginning of the year. He only had 24 snaps in the last two games combined. He looks to be healthy, but nowadays we have no clue. Another player who is intriguing to watch is Makai Lemon. Many believed after Malachi Nelson transferred, that his best friend Lemon would soon follow. But he didn’t -- yet. I’m a little curious to see if he gets 'rewarded' for sticking it out and even playing defense for a few weeks while injuries piled up over at the corner position."

What's the most intriguing defensive storyline?

Tajwar: "The Trojans defensive scheme under the two-season tenure of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was perplexing to say the least. Though there are plenty of gripes to be had and questions to be asked, nothing drew my ire like the obvious and ingrained abdication of schematic basics in what defenders were being asked to do on the field. Examples included run fits that could best be described as woefully optimistic, coverage alignments that failed to match the distribution of opposing receivers, and third down strategies that invited opposing offenses to simply sit their receivers down at the sticks. After the change at DC was made following the Washington game, I wondered if we’d see those base deficiencies addressed immediately by those newly put in charge. The Oregon and UCLA games very clearly demonstrated that they weren’t. Perhaps the reason for that was that the staff had far too little time to adjust on the fly. With over a month to prepare since their last game now, that excuse should no longer apply. Those basic schematic adjustments will certainly be made by D’Anton Lynn once he fully takes the reins, but there’s no reason the acting co-DCs shouldn’t have been able to implement them by now. I’m deeply curious to see if those adjustments have been made for this Bowl Game -- and I’ll be deeply confused if they haven’t."

Jeff: "It’s time to see what Jacobe Covington can truly do. He has all the physical tools to be a very good corner, he just hasn’t figured it out yet. The entire defense is a storyline all in itself. I want to see who is going to step up and show the new staff that they should be in consideration to be a vital piece to the defense. Defensive tackle Bear Alexander is probably the only current USC player to have his spot fully locked in for next year. Everyone else has everything left to prove. Covington and Prophet Brown are the starting cornerbacks for the bowl game and are competing for their role in the defense next year -- especially with two veteran cornerback transfers on the way in. The problem with watching this defense on Wednesday is that next year is going to be completely different so take this defense with a grain of salt, but the individual performances will carry a lot of weight."

Ryan: "Yeah, Covington is a guy who looks to have all the potential in the world, but he's four years into his college career (and on his second school) and has yet to seize a consistent role. Heck, he hasn't even played since Week 6. This is the best opportunity he could hope for to show the new defensive staff that he deserves a role next year. The other guy who intrigues me is Tre'Quon Fegans, who I assume will get his work at safety or nickel (though he could slide outside if needed). Buzz has been building for Fegans, a redshirt freshman and Alabama transfer who didn't play much until the very end of the season. I expect he'll get ample opportunity Wednesday to showcase his development."

What's your score prediction?

Ryan: "Louisville, 33-28. Tertiary bowl games like this are impossible to predict, especially now when top players opt out of the postseason to prepare for the NFL. So this is a dart toss of a prediction. I expect a close game, I expect Moss to lead the offense competently but the Trojans to be unable to make enough stops in the end."

Jeff: "Louisville, 42-35. I just don’t trust this defense. It has been bad all year and I expect more of the same from this group. Not only has it not improved, they have lost some key players like Calen Bullock, Christian Roland-Wallace and Domani Jackson. The Trojans didn't have much depth to begin with, but especially at corner they could be in a lot of trouble. Offensively, I expect Miller Moss to perform well -- I’m just not sure if he performs well enough to truly win the job on Wednesday. I’m going to predict we will see touchdown receptions by Tahj Washington and Duce Robinson. On the ground, I see Lincoln Riley using Austin Jones a lot in the beginning of the game to give him his run just out of respect for what he has done for the Trojans the last two years. I see both Jones and Quinten Joyner both scoring touchdowns. I just don’t think this offense will do enough to overcome the poor defense."

Tajwar: "Louisville, 31-28. The Cardinals' defense has been one of the better units in the country for most of the year, and I expect them to pose a real challenge for Miller Moss in his first start. Particularly given the absences of key figures in the receiving corps and at tight end, Louisville’s defense is likely to make life uncomfortable for USC’s offense despite the success I’m expecting it to find in spurts. On the other side of the ball, Louisville’s passing attack is altogether unimposing, but the ground game has been a capable force for most of the year. Despite the absence of NFL-draft bound star Jawhar Jordan, the Cardinals will likely be able to take advantage of a USC run defense that’s most closely resembled a set of 11 bowling pins for most of the 2023 season. Though I expect this one to stay close and for the Trojans to show their fair share of bright spots across the roster, I’m expecting the team’s pre-existing issues on defense and the struggles of breaking in a largely new offensive lineup against a sturdy opponent to ultimately overwhelm them."