Analyzing the NFL Combine performances of USC's draft prospects

The 2024 NFL Combine has come and gone with eight Trojans having attended this year’s edition of the “underwear Olympics.”

USC’s representation at the event in Indianapolis was, of course, headlined by quarterback Caleb Williams, the former Heisman winner and presumptive No. 1 overall pick. Williams elected to abstain from all testing and field work, as most surefire top quarterback picks choose to do, using the week instead to focus on his meetings and interviews with teams and media.

As a group, the Trojan contingent at the combine didn’t really do a lot of testing, with only three players coming close to a completed set of tests and half the group abstaining almost entirely. This wasn’t particularly unusual -- most of those who didn’t complete their testing will try to use the extra time to maximize their showings in all remaining drills at their Pro Days over the next month.

You’ll notice that the agility testing scores in particular seem to be blank across the board for USC’s players, as was the case with a majority of participants at this year’s combine. Skipping the agility testing at the combine has become rather commonplace in recent years, with prosects choosing instead to do those drills on the comfortable terrain of their school fields with extra time to prepare.

Here, we’ll take a look at each of the eight Trojans’ testing results from Indianapolis and evaluate where they stand heading into the draft.

We’ll be using RAS cards to reflect each of the prospect’s performances at the combine. For the unacquainted, RAS is a metric devised by Kent Lee Platte to contextualize players’ physical measurements and athletic testing scores against all other draft-eligible players at their position over the past few decades. For each individual test or measurement, you’ll see a score ranging from 0-10.00. A score of 0-4.99 signifies a subpar result, 5.00-7.99 indicates an average to above average score, and 8.00+ indicates elite results. The overall RAS score at the top of the card shows where the player scores as a whole compared to all eligible draftees at their position over time on the same grading scale as an aggregate of the sub-scores.

Caleb Williams is the undisputed star of this draft, preordained as the No. 1 pick long in advance. Just like the last three quarterbacks to enter draft season with that label (Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray), Williams elected not to participate in testing or on-field drills. It’s almost certainly the right decision; prospects like these have practically nothing to gain by participating.

Williams also made the more unusual call to decline sharing his full medicals will all 32 teams, a decision for which he received some flack from media members and fans. However, a thoughtful look at the reasoning for this choice shows it to be a reasonable one. Only a handful of teams, if not just one, will have a shot at drafting Williams. He’s made it clear that he’ll share his medicals with any of those teams on his official visits; there’s just no need for him to share his private medical data to all 32 teams when almost none of them will even have a shot at drafting him.

Despite the silliness of the peripheral discourse that follows Williams everywhere, he seemed to have handled himself well at the combine -- in press conferences and interviews while staying present over the duration of the week to cheer for his teammates as they went through their workouts. Nothing that happened at the combine should really have affected the young quarterback’s position heading into the draft; he should be locked in as the No. 1 pick, almost certainly bound for Chicago.

Brenden Rice had plenty to gain from a good performance at the combine, and as such he was one of a small group of Trojans to do most of his testing at the event. With the greatest receiver of all time looking on from the sidelines (Rice calls him dad), USC’s 2023 touchdown leader put together a strong showing across his body of work in Indianapolis.

For starters, he measured in at 6-foot-2 and 208 pounds with 33-inch-long arms. Rice’s size is one of his great strengths as a pass catcher, and officially measuring in with a frame like that (the arm length is a win in particular) confirmed his status as one of the true “big- bodied” weapons available in this class.

What makes Rice truly eye-catching on tape is the athleticism he shows at that size, and his ability to back up that perception with his testing was always going to be instrumental in determining his draft stock. He didn’t disappoint, testing well in all categories and earning a 9.13 RAS score for his performance -- meaning that he cumulatively tested out above the 90th percentile among all receivers since 1987. His 40-yard time of 4.50 was very solid for a player of his size, but there’s more to be gleaned from his excellent 10-yard split time of 1.55 seconds, showcasing tremendous skill as an accelerator. Rice’s healthy vertical jump of 36.5 inches also backed up his explosive qualities, giving teams good reason to believe in his potential as a high-point ball-winner when paired with his length of frame.

Rice’s movement skills and ability to secure the ball away from his frame flashed during the on-field exercises, particularly during an impressive run through the notorious gauntlet drill.

In conjunction with his strong Senior Bowl performance, Rice’s combine outing should keep his draft stock firmly working upward. The one factor that’s likely to suppress his position in the draft is simply the insane depth and talent of this year’s receiver class. Rice is most likely to find himself drafted somewhere in the second tier of the group, anywhere from the start of the second round to the early fourth.

Among media at least, Tahj Washington has been largely flying under the radar through draft season, and his decision to abstain from full combine testing will certainly do little to change that. Though Washington participated and looked good in the on-field drills, he didn’t run a 40 or do any agility testing. For players who measure in as small as he did, good speed and agility results are practically mandatory in order to receive consideration as an early round draft choice, no matter how good the film is.

With that said, Washington’s tape is in fact excellent. He was one of the most dependable and well-rounded pass-catchers in the country last season, displaying a skill set that should translate smoothly to the modern NFL as a slot receiver. NFL teams are sure to notice as they get deeper into the scouting process and will grade Washington accordingly, but he’ll need to post strong scores at his Pro Day testing in order to have a shot at getting drafted where he deserves to be selected.

I, for one, expect him to test plenty well when the time comes, as his change-of-direction skills and pure straight-line speed both appeared evident in his play on the field over the course of his collegiate career. If I had to guess, I’d say he eventually runs his 40 in the ballpark of 4.42 seconds and posts a 3-cone drill of around 6.7 seconds. His solid marks in the jumps (the only testing he did at the combine) indicate a baseline of explosiveness that should carry over to the other tests.

If Washington does end up testing out as I expect at his Pro Day, he should have a chance to hear his name called in the third round.

MarShawn Lloyd was perhaps the biggest winner among the Trojans at the combine, with his performance stirring chatter about whether he might end up as the first running back drafted in this class. This year’s crop of ball-carriers lacks the obvious high-end picks of years past, instead featuring a broad array of talented players who’ll be picked from Day 2 onward. Lloyd finds himself squarely in the mix at the top of that group after his Senior Bowl and combine performances, having shown off the change-of-direction ability and explosiveness conducive to success at the next level.

Lloyd’s frame is compact and sturdy, carrying 220 pounds at a height of just 5-foot-8. That’s a very solid build for an NFL back, giving him the low center of gravity conducive to slipping through tackles and weaving through blocks while maintaining the density necessary to take on contact. Lloyd’s 4.48-second 40-yard dash was a very strong time for a back of his weight, as was the explosive 1.55-second 10-yard split he managed.

He also impressed on the field as a fluid carrier of the ball as well as a pass-catcher. The latter in particular was valuable for Lloyd, who didn’t see too many opportunities to work as a receiver in the USC offense. Don’t be surprised to see Lloyd be selected as one of the first few running backs off the board; he’ll almost certainly hear his name called between the second and third rounds.

Jarrett Kingston, the Washington State transfer, had a rather up-and-down season for the Trojans, moving between right tackle and guard as he and the offensive line as a whole tried to find their bearings over the fall. Though he put out some good tape in a USC jersey, Kingston’s 2023 season was somewhat underwhelming, certainly when considering the trajectory of his play over the previous two seasons. Heading into the combine, Kingston figured to be an undrafted free agent or a late pick, if he was lucky enough to hear his name called at all.

However, the big man blew his testing in Indianapolis out of the water, putting together an elite performance that amounted to the 11th-highest RAS score of any offensive guard over the last 37 years. Kingston checked every box -- excelling on bench press, running fast, jumping explosively and showing shocking quickness in the shuttle drill.

His performance in Indy instantly made his name one to know for scouts and draft media, both of which will now start to labor through his tape. What they’ll find there probably won’t be enough to push Kingston into an early-round slot, but it might be enough to get his name called in the middle rounds of the draft. His best tape is at the guard position and that’s where he projects best to the NFL given his frame and arm length, despite the Trojans’ decision to play him at right tackle down the stretch of the season.

How Kingston interviews and works out for teams in the coming weeks will go a long way toward determining where he ends up selected, but we can be certain that the boost he created for himself at the Combine will carry him a long way.

Calen Bullock is easily the Trojans’ top defensive prospect in this draft and will likely be the first USC player after Caleb Williams to hear his name called. Though Bullock eschewed all testing besides the 40-yard dash, he posted a very strong time there and did well enough in his on-field workouts to keep his name floating near the top of this safety class. Similar to the state of the running back class as described above, this year’s group of safety prospects doesn’t have clear-cut headliner talent at the top. Instead, there’s a sizable crop of exciting players primed to start coming off the board from the second round onward, and the ordering of those players will depend heavily on teams’ specific preferences for the type of safety they’re looking for.

Bullock’s stock caught a nice bump from his combine showing as his strong 40 time and impressive length in the measurements served to distinguish him from many of the other names clustered around the top of the safety class. His draft range is still fairly wide open given the uncertainty at the position group, but he should be a lock to go between the second and third rounds to a team looking for someone to man a true free safety role.

After turning in two productive years off the edge for the Trojans following his transfer from Wyoming, Solomon Byrd has a shot at hearing his name called in the later rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft. Byrd has plenty of good tape to show for his time at USC, particularly as a pure pass-rusher from a wide alignment. However, his struggles at the point of attack against the run and in particular against larger offensive linemen will pose a significant concern to scouts looking to project his game to the NFL. With that said, the NFL has shown itself as willing to draft players as pure rotational pass rushers, a role that Byrd should be well suited for if he can prove to have NFL-ready physical traits.

Though he’s on the smaller side, his measured size of about 6-foot-3 and 255 pounds is good enough to fill that role at the next level. Crucially, his arms measured in at 33.625 inches, an excellent mark that should really attract the interest of scouts. Byrd completed no testing however, and it will be hard to really pin down a projected draft slot for him until he tests at USC’s pro day.

Arizona transfer Christian Roland-Wallace had a solid if unspectacular year with the Trojans in 2023, serving as a physical presence on the boundary of the defense. Thanks to his sturdy frame and persistent physicality, there’s been chatter about NFL teams being open to playing him all across the secondary, whether that be at corner, nickel or safety.

At the combine, Roland-Wallace’s measurements backed up that possibility as he registered a dense frame (201 pounds at 5-foot-11) and the long arms that every NFL defensive coach would like to have on his DBs. The question for Roland-Wallace remains whether or not his agility and straight-line speed are up to snuff, and his lack of Combine testing leaves that question open for now. How he tests out in those regards will be vital to determining whether he gets drafted and what position the league sees him at.