Published Oct 29, 2023
COLUMN: USC's football season destined for one of two extremes
Ryan Young  •  TrojanSports
Publisher
Twitter
@RyanYoungRivals

BERKELEY -- Last week, Utah's last-second field goal sailed through the uprights. On Saturday, Cal's last-minute two-point conversion pass landed incomplete.

Two games down to the wire, left to two deciding moments, leading to two opposite outcomes.

After both the 34-32 loss to the Utes and the 50-49 win over Cal, USC coach Lincoln Riley's message has been largely the same.

Meanwhile, before, during and after both of those games, the sentiments of the fan base have been the opposite.

Riley sees the resolve and cohesion it took to overcome a 14-point fourth quarter deficit and rally to victory Saturday (same as he saw the fight to battle back against Utah before coming up just short). The fraying USC faithful sees everything that led to that two-touchdown hole and the 527 yards and 49 points allowed by a Trojans defense that simply isn't improving and now ranks 111th nationally (giving up 420.9 yards per game).

At this point, this USC football season can only end in one of two extremes -- either with the Trojans becoming the team that Riley believes them to be and stunning many on the way to the Pac-12 title game, or with fans' fears realized and the program tumbling back toward mediocrity and uncertainty.

The Trojans (7-2, 5-1 Pac-12) have No. 5 Washington (8-0, 5-0) at home in the Coliseum this coming Saturday and No. 6 Oregon (7-1, 4-1) on the road the following week.

One way or the other, this team is about to decide its course -- because anything less than a return to trip to Las Vegas is only going to magnify the perceived cracks in the foundation of what Riley has been trying to build.

There simply is no in-between for these Trojans.

"I believe this team can win this league. Hell yeah, I do. Hell yeah, I do. I know we can," Riley said resolutely Saturday night. "We've got to go do it. We've got some fun, exciting challenges ahead coming up -- we know that -- but yeah, I do. ... We've got some work to do here, but can we do it? Damn right we can."

RELATED: Watch Lincoln Riley's postgame press conference after the win at Cal | Watch the postgame interview with Caleb Williams and USC players

Advertisement
info icon
Embed content not availableManage privacy settings

It all could have ended Saturday in Berkeley, though -- that's the reality, that's the tightrope this team keeps walking.

A one-score game midway through the fourth quarter against a now 2-6 Arizona State team. The near second-half collapse at still-spiraling Colorado requiring the recovery of an onside kick to protect the win. Three overtimes to beat Arizona. The stinging setback in South Bend. A second-straight loss at the hands of Utah's pig-farming former walk-on QB. And then Saturday, when the Trojans trailed 43-29 early in the fourth quarter.

"The game of football's an interesting sport, you know. You're going to get down, you're going to be down, you're going to be behind. It's destined to happen throughout a season. That's when you learn a lot about your team, how they're able to pull together and obviously come out with a win," center Justin Dedich said. "Just proud, a lot of leaders stepped up. At halftime, we had a lot of guys speak up to kind of get our energy and intent right, and that's what great teams are -- they're player-led. It's been creeping out, but today was a great step forward for us being a player-led team."

Riley and his players should be -- and certainly are -- buoyed by the way they rallied on the road to rollover those Pac-12 title aspirations another week.

"I'm really, really damn proud of the group. I'm really proud of the group," Riley said. "They could have folded there in the fourth quarter. The last two weeks, things haven't went our way, some within our control, some not within our control, and to step up here on the road against a team that had some ... obvious momentum at times during the game and go find a way to get this sucker done was huge. ...

"There's a lot to build on, there's a lot that needs to improve, and yeah, if we keep practicing like we have here the last couple of weeks then we'll continue to get better -- we will."

At the same time, the fans should be frustrated -- and very unmistakably are -- that a team ranked in the top-10 just a few weeks ago needed a wild finish to outlast a 3-5 Cal team and cling to the back edge of the national rankings at No. 24.

Riley and his players should believe anything can happen the rest of the way, including beating a No. 5 Huskies team that needed 12 fourth-quarter points to eke out a 15-7 win over Arizona State two weeks ago and that led by just 2 points over lowly Stanford into the final minutes Saturday night.

"That's the ebbs and flows of the season. Week to week you never know. If had told you last week that Washington's going to win a game at home and not score an offensive touchdown, you wouldn't have believed me. Everybody would have said, 'Ah shoot, they're the this and this offense in the country,'" Riley said. "Like, every week, man, there's a lot of parity, there's a lot of back and forth, and you've got to find a way to get it done. So, hopefully we can keep finding a way to get it done, and with the fight we showed today I wouldn't count us out."

But nonetheless, the fans should have serious questions about why this defense shows no discernible improvement from one week to the next, one month to the next, one season to the next, or why these Trojans collectively don't look discernibly better than any of the teams they're supposed to be beating more comfortably (per the oddsmakers and the standings).

For now, USC football remains a fulcrum of contrasting perspectives and perceptions -- undeterred internal confidence that the best is yet to come, and a fan base that now expects the worst.

Much of that disagreement, of course, involves defensive coordinator Alex Grinch ...

After the game, Riley was asked both if he believes he can win a Pac-12 title with this defense and if he would feel the need to change staff, personnel or defensive philosophy if things continue on as they have.

To be fair, there's only one way he can answer those questions -- to double down on his investment in Grinch and to bolster his players with belief.

Even if it's not what the fans wanted to hear and that those responses would only be picked apart with exasperated fury on social media and message boards, Riley said what he had to say.

"I'm trying to beat Washington next week. Those are my thoughts on it," he answered. "That's my job is to get this team ready that's sitting 5-1 in the best conference in America to try to go win it. That's where my focus is. The reality is, are there areas where we have to be better defensively? Of course, there is, all right. But the flip side of that is, offensively, you can't sit there and put them in bad positions. We can't give up another couple of kickoffs where we put them in terrible field position or some three-and-outs.

"The turnover there at the end was the perfect example -- the defense, they do their job, they get the offense a turnover and then one frickin play and they're right back out there with bad field position. That's not bad defense, that's bad offense. That's bad team football and that's some of what we have. Now, are there some things defensively that have to get better for us to do it? Yeah. There's some things offensively that have to get better. There's some things on special teams that have to get better."

Sure, there are -- but it ultimately hinges on this maligned defense and its embattled coordinator.

Cal, a serviceable but limited offense leaning on its third quarterback of the season in redshirt freshman Fernando Mendoza, fumbled on its second play of the game Saturday and then reeled off four straight touchdown drives as if it was ... you know, Washington or Oregon.

All the hallmarks were there for this Trojans defense -- gaping running lanes, costly penalties, a QB not even particularly known for his legs running into wide open space for first down conversions while also having the best game of his young career (292 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT with 48 yards and 2 TDs rushing), etc.

The full Grinch experience.

We've gotten this far without delving into the specifics, but they ultimately tell the story ...

USC was up 10-0 when it quicky started unraveling. Stud sophomore running back Jaydn Ott broke through the line for a 43-yard touchdown scamper on Cal's second possession and then ran untouched on a 61-yard touchdown on the next series for the Bears. There was a helpful hold on DT De'jon Benton that wasn't called on the second score, but more to the point and to the nature of this defense, there was literally no one else in position to make a play on Ott once he got through the line -- again.

info icon
Embed content not availableManage privacy settings
info icon
Embed content not availableManage privacy settings

Early in the second quarter, Ott was already up to 141 yards and 3 TDs on 9 carries (he'd finish at 153 yards on 21 attempts after getting banged up and missing much of the second half.)

On Cal's fourth drive, Mendoza converted on fourth-and-4 with a 12-yard run (because, of course) setting up Ott's third touchdown run -- a 4-yard score.

On the Bears' fifth series, taking over at the 50 after a short punt from Eddie Czaplicki, the hosts needed just a pass interference penalty on Christian Roland-Wallace and three plays to score on a 17-yard pass from Mendoza to Trond Grizzell for a 28-17 lead.

As the Trojans returned to the locker room at halftime, Riley stayed on the field challenging the officials that there was still a second on the clock and time for a USC timeout and field goal try -- that was eventually granted and completed before the start of the second half, as Denis Lynch missed the 33-yard kick.

Meanwhile, though, the players took it upon themselves to deliver the halftime speech(es).

"Sometimes you get in the locker room and you just go through corrections and all that, it's a little more football scheme. Today was obviously about ourselves," Dedich said. "We had to focus on ourselves. Guys were just in there, they were fired up, they fired our group up and we came out and we played a pretty good second half."

As it does, the USC defense despite its warts also had its moments -- just enough of them the rest of the way to give the Trojans a chance.

Eric Gentry and Tyrone Taleni stuffed running back Isaiah Ifanse on fourth-and-1 near midfield to start the third quarter, followed that with a three-and-out and then a Gentry interception on three straight defensive series.


info icon
Embed content not availableManage privacy settings

"We started slow, and then we just [had] to continue to trust each other but also trust ourselves, trust what we worked on all week," rush end Jamil Muhammad said. "We made plays when we needed to. Obviously, moving forward we want to be able to just dominate from the jump all the way to the end. That's what we're going to continue to strive for no matter what anybody says or no matter what happens."

During that stretch, Caleb Williams hit Kyron Hudson for a beautiful 33-yard over-the-shoulder reception to the Cal 8 that set up Williams' 6-yard touchdown run to cut the deficit to 28-23.

info icon
Embed content not availableManage privacy settings

And the very next play following Gentry's interception, which gave USC possession at the Cal 22, Williams connected with Brenden Rice for a touchdown as the Trojans pulled ahead, 29-28.

"The good is so good and some of the stretches offensively, some of the stretches defensively are just outright dominant," Riley said.

info icon
Embed content not availableManage privacy settings

As Riley also acknowledged, though, the Trojans' best on either side of the ball is rarely sustained.

As soon as USC took that lead, the defense gave up back-to-back pass interference penalties by Domani Jackson and Jaylin Smith and then a fourth-and-4 conversion as Mendoza smartly just waited for the Trojans' patented over-pursuit to clear the middle of the field in front of him for an easy 13-yard run to the USC 15. Mendoza eventually punched it in from 2 yards out for a 36-29 Cal lead.

Williams then fumbled for a loss of 23 yards leading to a quick punt. When the defense bounced back with a three-and-out, the USC offense followed with another of its own.

This time, Mendoza led a touchdown drive capped by his own 1-yard run and it was suddenly 43-29 Cal in the opening minute of the fourth quarter.

But the fourth quarter would belong to USC running back MarShawn Lloyd (115 rushing yards, 2 TDs and 72 receiving yards).

He started the ensuing Trojans drive with a 16-yard reception and 53-yard run on back-to-back plays, eventually leading to a 1-yard Williams touchdown run.

The USC defense forced a punt and the offense punted it right back, but on the return Tackett Curtis jarred the ball loose from Nohl Williams and recovered it at the Cal 18. Three plays later, Lloyd was back in the end zone on a 9-yard touchdown run to tie it at 43-43.

info icon
Embed content not availableManage privacy settings

It was that kind of game.

Just as quickly as the USC defense got the ball back again on a fumble forced by Gentry and recovered by Muhammad, Williams was sacked for a loss of 12 and fumbled it back to Cal.

Again, the Trojans defense delivered a three-and-out, Lloyd took the next snap 56 yards to the Cal 7 and Austin Jones punched it in for the go-ahead touchdown -- 50-43 with 3:33 left.

info icon
Embed content not availableManage privacy settings

Pick out the best moments from that stretch and, sure, you can see what Riley sees.

Zoom out to the full picture, though, and it's plain to see why many others struggle to see how this team is going to keep up with a pair of top-10 opponents the next two weeks.

"This team's good is definitely good enough to beat anybody. We're not getting our good consistently enough to play well enough to separate in some of these games," Riley said. "We've got to all band together, we've got to all keep pounding the rock, we've got to all keep getting better. Because it's there."

Nothing is ever easy for these Trojans, though.

An unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Gentry on Cal's final drive got the Bears going before a 21-yard Mendoza strike to Jeremiah Hunter and a 23-yard Justin Williams-Thomas run later helped set up Mendoza's 13-yard touchdown pass to Jaivian Thomas.

The Bears decided to try to go for the win with the two-point conversion instead of the tie with 58 seconds left, and Gentry smothered the tight end in Mendoza's sights while Smith batted away the pass toward wide receiver Brian Hightower in the end zone to seal the win.

info icon
Embed content not availableManage privacy settings
info icon
Embed content not availableManage privacy settings

With that, the Trojans celebrated what mattered most to them -- the outcome -- while their supporters, celebrated alums and critics alike fixated on everything else.

info icon
Embed content not availableManage privacy settings
info icon
Embed content not availableManage privacy settings

That's just where this season is at and will remain until it ends on one extreme or the other, because there is no middle ground to be had for this team. One side is not going to convince the other of anything in the meantime, though Riley delivered his message all the same Saturday night.

"I'm watching last night in the hotel, I was trying to rest a little bit, I'm watching the Diamondbacks-Rangers series and they showed a graphic," said Riley, who has been recovering from pneumonia and was slowed through the week. "I think Arizona -- you can [correct] me if I'm wrong -- it's either June/July or July/August, one of the months they won 33 percent of their games and one of the months I think it was 44 percent of their games, that was their winning percentage. They're playing for a World Series right now.

"Sports, momentum, this high competition, man, it's a funny thing. Sometimes one little spark and you get going and you get that momentum, especially when it's so competitive and the margins are so thin, like they are in college football and like they are in this conference right now. So the good is really good, the bad has to get better -- own it, it is what it is, it has to get better, but it can get better. If we keep fighting the way we fought today, it will get better."

info icon
Embed content not availableManage privacy settings