Lincoln Riley called USC's 42-28 conquest over No. 15-ranked Louisville in the Holiday Bowl on Wednesday "as fun a win as I can remember as a head coach."
It was an exorcism of sorts of the negative narratives that had overtaken this lost season, and for the Trojans to pull that off with starters or key role players missing at most every position group on the field due to transfers or opt-outs made a statement more significant than the final score.
It showed a level of buy-in and trust in the coaching, a rallying confidence around quarterback Miller Moss, and a general commitment from the players to each other to start the turnaround for 2024 a little early.
"With all the changes, all the back and forth, six weeks, 20-plus guys that didn't play in this game for different reasons, we could have come into this game not caring about it. This team could have easily -- this team could have gone a lot of different ways with it. And to see us come play as well as we did on all three sides, big plays on all three sides, that's a good football team we just beat up on," Riley said.
"I thought team leadership in this game was as strong as it was the entire year, and I thought that was a big reason why guys played the way we did."
While the difference between finishing with 8 wins rather than 7 doesn't mean a whole lot in the big picture, the performance should serve as a rebuke to any concerns about Riley's ability turn the trajectory for this program again. Yes, the Trojans still have plenty of personnel and depth questions for 2024, so much to prove all over the field in general and legitimate outside concerns about their ability recruit the specific talent in the trenches needed to win in the Big Ten moving forward.
But don't dismiss what it means to rally a depleted and defeated locker room like Riley and his staff did for a tertiary bowl game when this program so badly needed any sort of fresh positive momentum.
"This is like a foreshadow for next season," wide receiver Kyron Hudson said. "This is giving everybody, our fans, especially people that doubted us, a foreshadow for what's going to come. I can speak for everybody in there, it's going to change and we're super excited."
Riley made a point to praise the defensive coaching staff, which was in a tough position yet stuck together (minus one departure) to deliver the message to the players that the job wasn't done and that this game meant something.
Riley has said the defensive staff decisions aren't set, beyond the three new hires who weren't involved in the game-planning, but it's no mystery that linebackers coach Brian Odom was in a potentially-awkward spot continuing to co-coordinate the defense with DL coach Shaun Nua despite his replacement already having been announced in new LBs coach Matt Entz.
"A special thanks to the guys that stayed around because it was important to them, because the team was important to them, because USC was important to them. A special thanks to the coaches that did that -- it was not an easy situation, especially for some of the coaches on our staff," Rileys said. "Especially our defensive guys did a hell of a job tonight -- they got our guys ready to play. A lot of really good coaches, a lot of really good people on the staff where they could have turned and tried to go on to the next thing and they stayed because it was important. Honestly, a bunch of guys in the locker room and the coaching staff that felt that way and that's the reason why we won the game."
Veteran safety Bryson Shaw, who was one of four new captains for the game for USC, touched on that point as well, after a game in which the secondary looked better coached than it had all season despite replacing starters at three positions.
"The defensive coaches did a great job. Taylor Mays stepped up when Donte went out and he killed it right from the start. He's a legend so he's got that respect right off the bat. The way he coaches, he coaches hard, coaches with passion that he is. You guys all know T Mays, we were all so excited to play for him. And then Greg Brown, he brought his enthusiasm to the group too. We were all just having fun. Practices were the most fun," Shaw said. "Myself, I don't know about these guys, but practicing this last month, this has been the most fun for me personally playing football my whole life. ...
"This team that just played, I would take this team over everybody -- I love this team. This last month has been something special. You guys just to see it out there, but we were confident in this. We knew this was going to happen just based off the belief in each other."
Yes, for the first time in months, USC football was fun again, and while it's going to take a lot more to get this program where Riley and the fans want it to be, that's at least a start.
Meanwhile, we've taken our customary deep dive into the film room and broken down every aspect of the Trojans' performance, coming away with our top 10 takeaways from the game ...
1. It's truly Miller Time
By now, every USC fan is well acquainted with the Miller Moss story. The redshirt sophomore’s perseverance and determination to stick with the Trojans despite the stacking of the cards (the depth chart, really) against him is now something of legend. Unfazed by the shadow of Caleb Williams or the implications of the moment on the trajectory of his career, Moss turned in a performance for the ages in the Holiday Bowl as he made his first collegiate start. Posting a remarkable stat line of 372 passing yards and a Holiday bowl-record 6 touchdowns, the former backup led his team to a desperately-needed victory, giving the Trojans their first bowl win in almost 7 years and drastically turning the tide of momentum in USC’s favor heading into a pivotal offseason.
The storybook elements of his story have been well documented to this point, and there’s little I can add to the drama of the off-field narratives surrounding Moss and his emergence. What I’m more interested in right now is examining what Moss showed on the football field last Wednesday night in an attempt to make sense of what he brings to the table and what it means for this football team heading into its first season in the Big Ten.
Let’s start with the tangible traits, the area in which most of the doubts regarding Moss were concentrated prior to this contest. Though Moss doesn’t possess elite mobility or exceptional arm strength, his performance against Louisville made it clear that his physical talent in both regards is plenty sufficient to play the quarterback position at a high level. As a mover, Moss’s greatest strength appears to be the fact that he knows exactly how much his legs can do for him relative to the other players on the field. Though he’s got a decent pair of wheels and solid change of direction skills, it was Moss’ awareness of how to manipulate the space and defenders around him that allowed him to maximize on his opportunities as he navigated the pocket, extended plays when necessary and created extra yardage as a runner.
The best example of this came on his fourth touchdown of the day, as he finished off the Trojans’ 2-minute drill before the half to put them up by two touchdowns. On second-and-8, Moss faced pressure coming around the right edge, with the rusher closing in on him with a clean angle. The quarterback instinctively stepped up into the pocket and flushed himself out to the right, creating just enough space to evade another oncoming defender while delivering a perfectly-lofted ball to the endzone for Ja’Kobi Lane to come down with a 31-yard scoring grab.
Moss wasn’t sacked a single time in this game against a legitimately imposing Louisville defensive front. Although the play of his offensive line deserves plenty of credit for that fact, Moss’ confidence in his legs and ability to move just enough to get himself in position to deliver the necessary throws allowed him to make plays that many other signal-callers would have struggled to get to. As a pure thrower of the football, Moss showed that he has the arm strength to generate excellent velocity at the intermediate and short levels and just enough to make himself a viable thrower of the deep ball. His accuracy under 20 yards was fantastic for much of the game, as he zipped passes into tight windows that required him to throw the football with serious velocity -- see his second touchdown to Kyron Hudson, which was absolutely rocketed between four closing defenders.
Further down the field, it was clear that Moss’ arm strength didn’t carry quite as well, as his ball placement seemed to suffer a bit more when he was required to hit the deep ball. His second touchdown to Tahj Washington slowed down a bit as it neared the end zone, forcing the receiver to come back to the ball and fight for a catch that should have fallen over his shoulder, and two of his deep attempts to Zachariah Branch were slightly misplaced as he tried to heave them with the necessary amount of power.
Even still, Moss showed that he’s got the requisite juice in his arm to connect on deep throws when he’s got a clean platform to throw from, most noticeably on his longest and final touchdown pass of the day to Duce Robinson. On that 44-yard strike, Moss stepped cleanly into his throw and delivered the ball as perfectly as possible over Robinson’s shoulder, driving it with all the required velocity and placement to its destination.
He went 5 of 8 on throws of 20+ yards for 163 yards and 3 of his touchdowns -- you can’t really complain about that. Though Moss doesn’t have a “cannon” for an arm like some other top quarterbacks do, he should be plenty capable of succeeding as a thrower of the deep ball, especially with another offseason to train and with more reps.
As much as the physical talent shone through, it was Moss’ grasp of the intangibles that dazzled in this contest. His composure and decision-making over the course of the night were fantastic, resembling that of a multi-year starter and NFL prospect far more than a redshirt sophomore making his first start. Never for a moment did the young quarterback appear rattled, approaching every snap with an obvious confidence that translated to his decisiveness with the football and trust in both his arm and his playmakers. It was clear to see that Moss understands Lincoln Riley’s offense well and knows just how to work his reads in the context of the system, as he consistently demonstrated the ability to identify the correct throw in his progressions and displayed the necessary wherewithal to abandon the play when there was nothing left to gain. Each of his mistakes on the night, limited as they were, happened to be errors of execution rather than decision-making. His command of the offense was palpable, allowing him to get the ball to the right place at the right time with a consistency that kept the Trojans moving with ease for most of the night despite the absence of a functional rushing attack.
Moss had an answer for every situation he was faced with, getting the ball out quickly when he had to and always seeming to find the right guy to target in the context of the play. That skill allowed him to convert a healthy 6 of 10 third downs -- plenty of them long -- against a Louisville defense that had given up just 28% of those chances all year, which was sixth-best in the country.
The mental responsibilities of playing the quarterback position are the hardest to master and the most valuable on the football field given that a player has the baseline physical tools. Moss has proved that he’s much further developed in that regard than most players at the collegiate level. I know that’s a crazy thing to say after just one start’s worth of tape to examine, but that tape shows everything I needed to see. There are very good college quarterbacks that never quite master that part of the game after years of starting -- for Moss to have demonstrated such a clear grasp of the offensive system and his role within it so early speaks volumes as to the player he is. With a full offseason of reps to add as a starter, there’s sincerely no telling what a player with that kind of ability could be capable of.
Moss may have to compete against some new additions to win the job outright in the coming months, but make no mistake, the Trojans’ starting quarterback position should be his to lose from here on out.
2. Perspective on the O-line and Elijah Paige's encouraging debut
USC’s offensive line was much maligned by observers over the course of the year -- perhaps unfairly. Although it was evident the group took a step backward from its performance in 2022, it was still an above-average unit and plenty capable of supporting a top-tier offense. Much of the O-line's perceived struggles in pass protection were largely borne of the play style of their quarterback, whose penchant for holding the ball longer than all but 4 FBS quarterbacks with more than 300 snaps played (average of 3.19 seconds to throw) put his blockers in difficult positions. PFF charted Williams as being responsible for 39 pressures over the course of the season -- more than any other quarterback in the country. That’s not to lambast Williams, who’s unique style and creativity in extending the play allow him to do things few other players in the history of the game have been able to emulate. However, when evaluating the performance of the offensive line over the course of the year, the difficulty of the task it was asked to perform has to be understood.
As such, it wasn’t surprising to see the Trojans’ five guys up front fare significantly better in pass protection against Louisville, as Moss got the ball out of his hands quickly with an average time to throw of just 2.60 seconds. The offensive line gave up a total of just 6 pressures and no sacks over the course of the night, while right tackle Jarrett Kingston (84.4 pass-blocking grade from PFF) and Jonah Monheim (81.1, while moving to right guard) excelling in particular. But most promising was freshman Elijah Paige in his first ever start at left tackle. Paige had received very few opportunities to see the field in his first season as a Trojan but made the most of his first start against a talented defensive line, allowing just 2 pressures on his 25 pass-blocking reps. Paige’s frame appeared noticeably more filled out than earlier in the season, and he held his ground admirably. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see him as the team’s starter on the blindside in Week 1 next season.
Despite the strength of the offensive line’s pass-blocking performance, the Trojans struggled mightily as run blockers for most of the night, doing little to create significant room for the backs as evidenced by the team averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. Though the Trojans were quite productive on the ground over the course of the year (6.44 yards per carry by running backs), the offensive line was inconsistent in its ability to create solid lanes from week to week. Generating more reliability in that area will be a key heading into the 2024 season.
Lastly, though, the offensive line deserves real praise for finishing this game without a single penalty called. Not only did the linemen avoid holding penalties, indicating their heightened execution, they avoided the pre-snap penalties that had so plagued them throughout the season. The starting offensive line unit had amassed 35 penalties over the course of the year -- the majority of them coming on flags that reflected a lack of focus and attention to detail. Playing a clean game from start to finish against one of the better defensive fronts they faced all season was an improvement beyond what could have been hoped for and provides reason for optimism for a positive regression to the mean moving forward.
3. The future at WR on full display
Outside of Miller Moss’ play, the story of the game for the Trojans was the performance of the team’s receiving corps.
Veteran Tahj Washington was brilliant in his final game in a USC uniform, posting 99 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns on 7 receptions. Though Washington could easily have opted out of this game in declaring for the NFL draft, he chose not to, demonstrating his dedication to the team and posting more eye-catching film for NFL teams to work with. As he has all season, Washington did it all in this game -- creating with the ball in his hands, winning with his route-running and securing difficult passes despite his small frame. His performance in the Holiday Bowl put him over 1,000 receiving yards for the season, rounding out a career-best stat line of 59 catches for 1,062 yards and 8 TDs. Though he’s been underrated nationally in his time as a Trojan, I’m betting Washington will make an NFL team quite happy in a year's time for having chosen him.
Though the senior led the way for the unit, it was a trio of freshmen that seized the moment, sending a warning shot to indicate just how dynamic and dangerous this young USC receiving corps could be in 2024. After showing bright flashes in his limited opportunities down the stretch of the regular season, Ja’Kobi Lane shone like a star in the Holiday Bowl on just 17 snaps. Lane dominated in high school due to his ability to win at the catch point, routinely snatching the ball clean out of the air and pulling passes out of the grasp of defensive backs with the help of his long-armed, 6-foot-4 frame. Those same skills were on full display against Louisville’s defensive backs as Lane hauled in 3 impressive grabs for 60 yards and 2 touchdowns. On all three of his catches, his ability to dominate the catch point with his size and hands were on display, never giving the defenders even a chance to prevent him from hauling in his two TDs. His route-running also stood out, as he showed silky movement skills and a rare ability to accelerate out of his breaks for a player of his size. It’s too early to say, but I wouldn’t be at all shocked to see Lane take a big leap forward to become the Trojans’ No. 1 receiver next season.
Fellow freshman Makai Lemon also made a big splash in his first taste of extended action as a receiver, hauling in 2 receptions for 75 yards. Lemon made a fantastic catch out in front of his body over the middle before shooting up the field for 40 yards for his first reception of the game and late made a leaping grab between three defenders for 35 yards earned as a result of a well-run slant-and-go pattern skillfully executed from the slot. We saw very little of Lemon on the field with the offense this season, but what he showed on Wednesday spoke of a player capable of stardom.
Not to be forgotten, five-star freshman Duce Robinson posted one of the highlights of the game on a 44-yard touchdown reception, blazing past a much smaller defensive back on a slant-and-go route similar to the one run earlier by Lemon. Robinson had a disappointing third down drop earlier in the game, an issue that’s marked his play as a freshman, but he’s nonetheless proven himself to be a unique pass-catching talent thanks to his rare blend of smooth athleticism and size.
Altogether, this group may end up being one of the toughest matchups for opposing defenses next season, much as it was for Louisville’s secondary. Not many other squads in the country will have a comparable blend of size (Lane and Robinson) and raw explosiveness (Lemon and Zachariah Branch) to put out on the field all at once.
4. The next steps for Zachariah Branch
For all the success of the freshmen wide receiver group, it was somewhat surprising for the most heralded member of that crew to have had the quietest night. Five-star phenom Zachariah Branch didn’t make much of an impact on his offensive snaps, rushing for no yardage on the first play of the game and recording 2 receptions for a total of just 9 yards. He did find a chance to show off his freakish ability in the open field on his lone punt return opportunity, shaking a couple of Cardinals out of their shoes and almost housing the touch for a score before losing his footing for an eventual gain of 23 yards.
Branch is one of the most explosive playmakers in college football, period. There’s practically no one in the country who moves like he does with the ball in his hands. He changes directions effortlessly like a hummingbird in flight and covers grass with all the speed of a cheetah running down its quarry -- none of that sounds like hyperbole if you've seen it with your own eyes. And yet, there’s still something that Branch hasn’t yet been able to put together in his game as a wide receiver.
We’ve discussed previously that his lack of involvement in the downfield passing attack this season was rather surprising, with the vast majority of his targets coming on short looks that resembled extensions of the running game more than anything. So far, Branch hasn’t demonstrated the ability to go get the football when it’s up for grabs, making it difficult for him to play a bigger role in the traditional passing offense. In the Holiday Bowl, he failed to haul in either of his targets on downfield routes, the first passing clean through both of his hands and the latter thrown a bit too far but still within catchable range had the receiver tracked it and laid out for it in time. This isn’t to say that Branch has bad hands -- he’s shown the ability to make impressive catches in his high school career and is certainly capable of continuing to do so at this level.
This season, USC’s depth at the receiver position limited his opportunities anyways, giving the offensive staff more reason to concentrate his targets on what he could be trusted to do best. The next step for Branch is to become a complete receiver, and he certainly has all the tools to do so. It’s just a matter of putting it all together, and this offseason we should expect to see him start to do just that. If the speedster starts to consistently make plays down the field, it’s an easy bet that he’ll instantly become one of the most feared players in all of college football.
5. Fixing the defensive structure
I’ve complained incessantly this season about the lack of functional soundness in the Trojans’ defensive structure -- issues that consistently left this team vulnerable to getting abused by opposing offenses yet remained unchanged over the course of the 12-game regular season. These included motion-intensive run fits that routinely left gaping holes at the line of scrimmage, inadequate alignments against offensive formations and inexplicable coverage cushions on third downs that invited easy passing conversions at the sticks. In the Roundtable before this game, I expressed my optimism that with a month to prepare, the interim defensive staff should finally be able to do away with these easily fixable blunders despite their persistence in the two games that immediately followed Alex Grinch’s firing.
Still, I found myself pleasantly suprised to see those adjustments decisively made for this bowl game. The perpetual front-seven shifting that characterized Grinch’s defense was largely done away with, the defensive formations matched those of the offense consistently according to conventional wisdom, and the team’s third down defense made sure to take away the easy conversions in the passing game that it had previously given up so easily. To be sure, the defense still found itself taken advantage of at times, particularly in the run game, but it was a noticeably improved effort from what we saw all year, with few of the familiar long busts or throw-away downs. Those simple adjustments went a long way toward improving the total quality of USC’s defensive performance, helping the team to limit the Cardinals to fewer points than all but three of their 2023 opponents.
It begs the question of why such obvious obstructions to good defensive football remained in place for so long, but regardless, it was a welcome sight to see the interim staff able to move past them and to reap the benefits immediately. We can be almost certain that D’Anton Lynn’s defense next year won’t feature structural flaws of this variety, and that’s something for which we can be thankful.