Published Mar 12, 2008
Pac-10 Tournament background and projections
Jay Mehta
Special to USCFootball.com
Pac 10 Tournament Background and Projections:
Seeding:
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1. UCLA (16-2)
2. Stanford (14-4)
3. Washington State (11-7)
4. USC (11-7)
5. Arizona State (9-9)
6. Oregon (9-9)
7. Arizona (8-10)
8. Washington (7-11)
9. California (6-12)
10. Oregon State (0-18)
Schedule: All Times PST.
First Round: Wednesday, March 12
Game 1 (6 p.m.): Washington (8) vs. California (9)
Game 2 (8:30 p.m.): Arizona (7) vs. Oregon State(10)
Quarterfinals: Thursday, March 13
Game 3 (12:00 p.m.): USC (4) vs. Arizona State (5)
Game 4 (2:30 p.m.): UCLA (8) vs. Washington/Cal
Game 5 (6 p.m.): Washington State (3) vs. Oregon (6)
Game 6 (8:30 p.m.): Stanford (2) vs. Arizona/OSU
Semifinals: Friday, March 14
Game 7 (6 p.m.): USC/Arizona State vs. UCLA/(Washington/Cal)
Game 8 (8:30 p.m.): WSU/Oregon vs. Stanford/(Arizona/OSU)
Championship: Saturday, March 15
Game 9 (3 p.m.): Championship Game
Statistics:
Individual Scoring Leaders
Ryan Anderson (CAL) 21.5 PPG
O.J. Mayo (USC) 20.9 PPG
Jerryd Bayless (ARIZ) 20.3 PPG
James Harden (ASU) 17.7 PPG
Jon Brockman (UW) 17.6 PPG
19. Davon Jefferson (USC) 12.0 PPG
Individual Rebounding Leaders
Jon Brockman (UW) 11.5 RPG
Kevin Love (UCLA) 10.9 RPG
Ryan Anderson (CAL) 9.9 RPG
Maarty Leunen (ORE) 9.3 RPG
Jordan Hill (ARIZ) 7.9 RPG
6. Taj Gibson (USC) 7.7 RPG
9. Davon Jefferson (USC) 6.2 RPG
Team Scoring Offense
California 77.5 PPG
Oregon 77.0 PPG
UCLA 74.4 PPG
7. USC 69.9 PPG
Team Scoring Defense
Washington State 56.0 PPG
UCLA 58.9 PPG
Stanford 60.0 PPG
5. USC 63.7 PPG
Projections:
Game 1: Washington vs. Cal:1st team All-Pac 10 Husky forward Jon Brockman reportedly severely sprained his ankle in Sunday's 76-73 double-overtime loss to Washington State and as of now, is not set to play in this 1st round contest. Each team won on the other team's floor (and neither won by more than 4 points) this season but without Brockman and his double figures in both points and rebounds, the Huskies are dead in the water. California is still stinging from an overtime loss at USC and the highly-controversial ending at UCLA over the weekend. The high-scoring Bears win this game by double-digits against the Huskies, who were not a good defensive team with Brockman in the lineup. Cal 80 UW 66
Game 2: Arizona vs. Oregon State: The Wildcats are in a very unfamiliar position: playing on the first night of the conference tournament. With both Nic Wise and Jerryd Bayless in the lineup, Arizona is 15-5 on the season (both have missed extensive time due to injuries) and 3-8 when either player misses action. Both are going to play in this game. Oregon State, on the other hand, set a record for the worst regular season conference record in history at 0-18. The Wildcats are trying to play their way off the proverbial NCAA Tournament bubble and accordingly, they will win by nearly 30 if not more. Arizona 82 Oregon State 53
Game 3: USC vs. Arizona State: These two teams split their regular season contests with each team winning by 14 points on their own home floor. The Trojans have won 5 of 6 since Daniel Hackett's return from injury and certainly have not forgotten about the controversial contest in Tempe just 11 days ago: a game that saw Arizona State shoot 39 free throws to USC's 11, 36 of which came in the 2nd half. The Trojans were also called for twice as many fouls than ASU and certainly feel as if they must redeem themselves after getting out-hustled, out-defended and generally out-played by the Sun Devils. How USC faces that Sun Devil 2-3 zone is the key to the contest and we believe that O.J. Mayo (who is averaging 25 PPG since the loss to UCLA roughly one month ago) and the rest of the young Trojans will be up to the task. It will be another slow-down, relatively ugly contest between the two teams, but the Trojans will make just enough from the perimeter to stretch that zone and give themselves room to get the basket against ASU. USC 66 ASU 60
Game 4: UCLA vs. Cal: Wow. Cal gets their shot at redemption less than one week after, in their eyes, being robbed this passed Saturday in Pauley. Last year, the 8th seeded Golden Bears upset then-#1 seed UCLA on the strength of Ayinde Ubaka's 29 points and the fact that UCLA was essentially asleep throughout the game. This year, neither is going to occur. Ubaka has graduated and the Bruins had two wake-up calls last weekend. The far more talented Bruins will pull away in the 2nd half, largely on the shoulders of Kevin Love and the restored confidence of streak-shooter Josh Shipp. Cal should keep it close though, going down as the best 9th place team in conference history. UCLA 77 Cal 69
Game 5: Washington State vs. Oregon: Upset special alert! Oregon lost twice to WSU during the regular season, each time by 9 points, but the Ducks are playing their best basketball of the season right now (not to mention the fact that they have their backs squarely against the bubble wall). Moreover, it's no secret that the streak-shooting Ducks absolutely love Staples Center and respond when the spotlight is shined upon them more often than not. Joevan Catron is finally fully healthy and he and Maarty Leunen should have enough down low to combat the sleek rebounding Cougars on the blocks. We also expect Tajuan Porter and Bryce Taylor to light it up from the perimeter as the Ducks will take 20+ 3-pointers….and make just enough to defeat the defensive-minded Cougars. Oregon 69 WSU 65
Game 6: Stanford vs. Arizona: The run ends here for the Wildcats in the Pacific 10 conference and possibly, for their amazing 23-year streak of consecutive NCAA Tournament bids. While the Wildcats RPI and SOS are very high (and thus, they should be able to sneak into the tournament), their chances of staying with the Cardinal on the glass are very low. Unless Jordan Hill stays out of foul trouble and gets a ton of help on the glass from his court-mates, Brook and Robin Lopez should have enough to keep Stanford ahead of the Wildcats all game. While Stanford did sweep Arizona during the regular season, they only did so by a combined 5 points. We would not be shocked if the now-healthy Wildcats pulled the upset, but the Cardinal have been ousted early in the conference tournament the last few years and they want to stick around and see what all the fuss is about. Stanford 65 Arizona 60
Game 7: USC vs. UCLA: Ah, the showdown. The game that all of Southern California will be waiting for. USC shocked then-#4 UCLA at Pauley in mid-January and the Bruins turned around and out-muscled the Hackett-less Trojans at the Galen Center one month later. While Hackett will be back for this contest, he still is not close to being 100%, especially on the offensive end. The Trojans needed a superhuman effort from Davon Jefferson (in addition to O.J. Mayo's usual steady output) to beat the Bruins the first time, and that cannot be counted upon again against the deep and talented Bruin frontcourt. Without Hackett's offensive output, the Trojans likely will not be able to defeat the well-balanced Bruin attack. Sadly, we're not ready to re-rely upon Dwight Lewis just yet but if he and the other Trojans get hot, do not count out USC. The Bruins have been treading on thin ice lately and they may finally fall through against the Trojans, a team that has demonstrated that they can play with anyone in America. However, the odds are in the Bruins' favor (though we certainly hope that we are wrong). UCLA 69 USC 64
Game 8: Stanford vs. Oregon: While Oregon did defeat Stanford early in the season, the Ducks were absolutely crushed by the Cardinal (72-43) one month ago. The Cardinal simply are not a good match-up for the Ducks. They get out and defend the perimeter well (2nd in the conference in both FG % defense and 3-point FG % defense) and give Duck backbone Maarty Leunen fits on the blocks. Oregon should get into the NCAA Tournament despite the loss (thanks to winning 4 of their final 5 and a 9-9 conference record), but they will still be sweating it out on Selection Sunday. Stanford 75 Oregon 65
Championship Game: UCLA vs. Stanford: Our apologies for not being more original but the fact remains: Stanford and UCLA are the best two teams in the conference and 2 of top defensive teams in the nation. The Bruins swept Stanford during the regular season and have won 5 of the last 6 against the Cardinal. This will be an extremely physical contest that will hinge on the Bruins' ability to hit the big shot and conversely, upon the Cardinal inability to shoot efficiently, especially against good defensive teams (Stanford is 9th in the conference in FG % offense and 6th in both scoring offense and 3-point FG % shooting). The Bruins will cut down the nets on Saturday. UCLA 73 Stanford 66
Going Dancing (Likely Seed):
UCLA (1)
Stanford (3 or 4, possible 2 if they win the conference tournament)
WSU (5 or 6, 3 is their high mark if they win the conference tournament)
USC (6, 7 or 8, 3 or 4 is their high mark if they win the conference tournament)
ASU (8, 9, 10, 11 or 12)
Oregon (9, 10 or 11)
Arizona (10, 11 or 12)
Pac 10 Conference Honors (Announced Monday, March 10, 2008):
Player of the Year: Kevin Love, UCLA
Freshman of the Year: Kevin Love, UCLA
Defensive Player of the Year: Russell Westbrook, UCLA
Coach of the Year: Trent Johnson, Stanford
1st team All-Pac 10:
Ryan Anderson CAL F El Dorado Hills, Calif. (Oak Ridge HS)
James Harden ASU G Los Angeles, Calif. (Artesia HS)
Brook Lopez STAN F Fresno, Calif. (San Joaquin Memorial HS)
Kevin Love UCLA C Lake Oswego, Ore. (Lake Oswego HS)
O.J. Mayo USC G Huntington, W.V. (Huntington HS)
2nd team All-Pac 10
Jerryd Bayless ARIZ G Phoenix, Ariz. (St. Mary's HS)
Jon Brockman WASH F Snohomish, Wash. (Snohomish HS)
Darren Collison UCLA G Rancho Cucamonga, Calif. (Etiwanda HS)
Maarty Leunen ORE F Redmond, Ore. (Redmond HS)
Kyle Weaver WSU G Beloit, Wis. (Beloit Memorial HS)
3rd team All-Pac 10:
Chase Budinger ARIZ F Encinitas, Calif. (LaCosta Canyon HS)
Taj Gibson USC F Brooklyn, N.Y. (Stoneridge Prep)
Derrick Low WSU G Honolulu, Hawaii (Iolani School)
Jeff Pendergraph ASU F Etiwanda, Calif. (Etiwanda HS)
Russell Westbrook UCLA G Hawthorne, Calif. (Leuzinger HS)
Honorable Mention (also receiving votes): Aron Baynes (WSU, C), Patrick Christopher (CAL, G/F), Anthony Goods (STAN, G), Malik Hairston (ORE, G), Jordan Hill (ARIZ, F), Davon Jefferson (USC, F), Mitch Johnson (STAN, G), Robin Lopez (STAN, C), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (UCLA, F), Josh Shipp (UCLA, F).
All-Freshman team:
Jerryd Bayless ARIZ G Phoenix, Ariz. (St. Mary's HS)
James Harden ASU G Los Angeles, Calif. (Artesia HS)
Davon Jefferson USC F Lynwood, Calif. (Lynwood HS)
Kevin Love UCLA C Lake Oswego, Ore. (Lake Oswego HS)
O.J. Mayo USC G Huntington, W.V. (Huntington HS)
Honorable Mention (also receiving votes): Ty Abbott (ASU, G), Angelo Johnson (USC, G), Harper Kamp (CAL, F), Venoy Overton (WASH, G).
All-Defensive team:
Darren Collison UCLA G Rancho Cucamonga, Calif. (Etiwanda HS)
Taj Gibson USC F Brooklyn, N.Y. (Stoneridge Prep)
Robin Lopez STAN C Fresno, Calif. (San Joaquin Memorial HS)
Kyle Weaver WSU G Sr. Beloit, Wis. (Beloit Memorial HS)
Russell Westbrook UCLA G Hawthorne, Calif. (Leuzinger HS)
Honorable Mention (also receiving votes): Jon Brockman (WASH, F), Robbie Cowgill (WSU, F), Jordan Hill (ARIZ, F), Brook Lopez (STAN, F), Kevin Love (UCLA, C), O.J. Mayo (USC, G), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (UCLA, F), Jawann McClellan (ARIZ, G), Fred Washington (STAN, G).