The evening after USC's crushing last-second loss to Utah two weeks ago, coach Lincoln Riley phoned his star quarterback Caleb Williams, not wanting to let the disappoint of the day fester any further.
His message that night was one that Williams reiterated resolutely earlier this week -- that the Trojans' College Football Playoff hopes aren't extinguished despite the losses to Notre Dame and the Utes and USC landing at No. 20 in the first CFP rankings.
Not with opportunities against No. 5 Washington on Saturday in the Coliseum, No. 6 Oregon on the road next week, a ranked UCLA team (presently No. 19 in the CFP rankings) to close it out and then a potential Pac-12 championship game.
"Yeah, it's a realistic goal," Williams said. "Yes, we have two losses. We have two losses to ranked teams -- I believe Utah's still ranked -- and we have one loss in conference. You can kind of see the light at the end of the tunnel. It was something that me and Coach Riley talked about right after the Utah game around 10 o'clock that night. When I got home I was laying on my couch, just laying there and we called each other and we were just talking on the phone and it was just a weird feeling of you still have that feeling inside that you can do something special.
"And he said to me that night when we hopped on the phone, he called and said, 'You've had a weird/special career, we've done some crazy stuff together, so let's go out -- our time together has been absolutely crazy, whether it's coming here, a 4-8 team to now being one of the highly-talented and ranked teams in the country, to coming into Oklahoma in a crazy situation, we've had so much crazy stuff so why not just add to the list and try to do something crazy?"
It would be crazy to conceive the Trojans jumping 16 spots in the CFP rankings -- or more to the point, to imagine this beleaguered defense holding up against the likes of Washington and Oregon the next two weeks -- but, hey, it's college football.
The Trojans will have more clarity on their remaining goals -- at least their hopes for a Pac-12 title game appearance -- after Saturday.
"It's a huge opportunity. It's as good as anybody has anywhere in the country right now," Riley said. "I think, certainly losing the Utah game on the last play of the game like we did is heartbreaking, but that's why you try to win all those conference games before that so even if you drop one you're still right in a great position like we are. That's part of it. You've got to bounce back and not miss these opportunities that are right here in front of our face, and man, do we have a golden one right here."
With that, it's time for the weekly TrojanSports.com Roundtable, as our staff delivers its perspective and predictions for the game ahead of kickoff today at 4:30 p.m. PT (on ABC).
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How much does the narrative around USC change if the Trojans beat a top-5 Washington team on Saturday?
Ryan Young: "I think it would have to, right? The prevailing presumption within the fan base right now is that USC couldn't possibly beat either Washington or Oregon -- not with this defense. If the Trojans win a shootout with the Huskies and the defense looks listless, I think that perception just rolls over to next week then with doubts that this team could win on the road at Oregon. But if USC wins Saturday with a balanced performance and the defense looking distinctly better than it has of late, then sure, you have to recalibrate expectations and possibilities a bit. But let me underscore, that is a huge 'if.' Honestly, it's hard to imagine the defense changing what it is this late into the season. I won't be surprised if USC puts its all together on offense and wins today, and if so that would certainly make the trip to Eugene immensely more interesting, but to truly change opinions about the Trojans' potential, it has to come from the defense.'
Tajwar Khandaker: "Beating an undefeated No. 5 team more than halfway through the season is bound to give any squad a big boost of momentum, both internally and externally. What a win against Washington would do is prove that the Trojans are capable of beating most anyone -- something that I do believe is true. Both of their losses this year are games they should have been able to win -- the reason they didn’t was their inability to string together good performances from the totality of their units. That lack of consistency in all phases of the game has held back the Trojans mightily, even in games against lesser competition like Cal and Arizona. A win against Washington would necessitate this USC team getting itself together to an extent we haven’t seen in a while, and doing so on this stage would create deserved room for optimism down the stretch with the team taking control of the conference lead."
Jeff McCulloch: "It does change, without a doubt, but not completely. The national narrative around USC has been elite offense but absolute horrific defense. The defense will always be a question mark for this team. If USC wins this game, its goals are still on the table. If they win, Oregon, USC, and Washington will each have one conference loss. Everything will be right in front of them. If they win out, which is a massive if, the Trojans will make the conference championship. If they win the conference championship, they still have a shot at the playoff as it is nationally known this has been the toughest conference this season. But those are all hypotheticals still.
"The reality is despite the perceptions of USC having an elite offense, that’s really not been the case consistently enough as this offense has struggled before the Cal game. The wide receivers have been having trouble getting open. The offensive line has had some major issues until making the switch on the right side of the line two games ago. The run game has had its issues as well. The combination of Caleb Williams, MarShawn Lloyd and this wide receiver corps is elite. There is no doubt about that, but they need to be firing on all cylinders in these next three games if they want to have any shot at their goals and keep pressure off this weak defense."
What is the formula for making that happen Saturday:
Tajwar: "We know about the team’s defensive struggles, but in my eyes the key to this game will be the USC offense’s ability to play at its expected level and not on the inconsistent basis we’ve seen all year. Washington’s secondary is not particularly good, and its run defense has struggled throughout the season. If USC’s offense can keep the pedal on the gas all game, the Trojans have a real shot at taking control of this game against a Washington offense that’s sputtered a bit in recent weeks. Much of that will fall on Caleb Williams, who simply has to be sharper than he’s been of late, but leaning into the rushing attack will have to be a key component against this weaker Washington run defense. If the Trojans can eat up more time of possession by using MarShawn Lloyd and Austin Jones, it’ll make life easier for Williams as the defense commits more men to the box -- as well as limit Michael Penix’s opportunities to keep up on the scoreboard."
Jeff: "This defense needs to step up against one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Washington has its own flaws defensively, but the Huskies are playing a USC defense where any type of offense succeeds and points are aplenty. The Trojans defense has had a couple strengths throughout the season -- they just have been inconsistent. In the beginning of the season, the bright spot on this defense was the defensive line. That is not the case anymore as only Bear Alexander is a true difference-maker there. More recently, the bright spot hasn’t been a position group, it’s been individual players. Eric Gentry had a monster game against Cal, so hopefully we can see him finally play consistent snaps at linebacker. The other star player on this defense has been cornerback Christian Roland-Wallace. After having a strange start to his USC career, he really turned into the Mekhi Blackmon of last year. He is a guy who you can leave on one side of the field, and he will do a good job consistently. The matchup between himself and Rome Odunze will be absolutely thrilling to watch as Odunze is one of the best wide receivers in the country and will likely be a first round pick in the NFL draft next season. Calen Bullock has been very good at safety, and Jaylin Smith at nickel has been the surprise of the year on this defense as he has improved tremendously. The question is can this defense put everything together for once? Probably not, but if it can make one or two crucial stops, the Trojans have a chance."
Ryan: "I'll go more specific on the defensive side. USC has to rediscover its pass rush and put pressure on Michael Penix Jr. The Trojans have just one sack over the last three games combined, and it won't be easy to correct that Saturday as Washington has allowed only five sacks all season. Part of that is due to Penix getting the ball out of his hand quickly to keep things moving. What the Trojans absolutely can't afford is to let him sit back in the pocket with time to pick apart this very vulnerable secondary. If USC brings nothing in the pass rush again this week, Penix should feast and then it comes down to a shootout. I could say USC has to limit the explosive plays -- it does, but let's be honest, the Huskies are going to hit on some big ones. I could say the secondary needs to rise to the occasion, but that's obvious and I still don't trust it against a passing attack this good. So to me, the key is creating havoc up front and getting Penix off schedule. I think the Trojans will score enough points to be competitive -- the rest is on the defense."
