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Published Oct 25, 2024
TrojanSports Roundtable: Staff picks and perspective for USC-Rutgers
Ryan Young  •  TrojanSports
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While it certainly feels like a lost season for USC, as the Trojans' top-end goals are out of reach and the ceiling of what's possible now is underwhelming, that's not to say the remaining games are without importance.

They absolutely do matter -- for the trajectory of the program, for the perception of Lincoln Riley's grip on this team, for the development of ascending young players who will remain key cogs into the future and ... just because USC fans can't bear to see it get any worse.

We're going to learn a lot this week about the mental state of this team after four dramatic last-minute losses in the last five games.

To set the table for USC (3-4, 1-4 Big Ten) and Rutgers (4-3, 1-3) in the Coliseum on a Friday night, our staff makes score predictions, guesses at what the final regular-season record will be and tries to shine a spotlight on at least a couple positives as well.

The weekly TrojanSports.com Roundtable ...

RELATED: Scouting Rutgers and how the Trojans and Scarlet Knights stack up

Let's start with a positive, who has exceeded expectations the most on both offense and defense this season?

Ryan Young: "Offensively, it's probably Woody Marks, just because I didn't expect him to be a true workhorse back commanding the overwhelming majority of carries. That seems like a lazy and obvious answer, but I mean, he has already blown past his previous career-high for rushing in just seven games (now up to 661), has gone over 80 rushing yards in five of seven games (over 100 in four of them), is averaging a career-high 5.6 yards per carry and his 25 receptions are just two off the team lead. So, yeah, I think he's the answer. But I'll also thrown in Kyron Hudson, who is tied for the team lead in receiving yards (303) and one off the lead in receptions (26). I figured he'd be a role player stuck behind the four sophomores. That has not been the case at all. Let's call it a tie between those two.

"Defensively, I'm going to go with Devan Thompkins, who has settled in as a starter and key cog at defensive tackle the last couple games and had 4 pressures against Penn State. He's always been on the periphery in his three years at USC. There would be periodic buzz about how he was performing in practice and then it wouldn't lead to a role on Saturdays -- until now. He's been one of the revelations this fall in a good way."

Tajwar Khandaker: "Kamari Ramsey was expected to be a key player for this defense, but he's been a flat-out star to date. Ramsey has looked like one of the better safeties in the country all season, and his play at that level has been critical to the USC defense. Elsewhere, I think we've mostly seen what's to be expected from USC's defenders, except perhaps Eric Gentry's dominance before his unfortunate injury.

"On offense, Woody Marks has been a revelation, producing at a dominant clip despite seeing less touches than most other lead backs around the country. Marks has lived up to his reputation as a valuable asset in the passing game, but his play as a between-the-tackles runner has been excellent for most of the year. He's got 661 yards and 5 touchdowns so far on 118 carries, easily having served as the offense's most reliable chain-mover over the first seven games. Offensive linemen Alani Noa has also made strides worth commending in recent weeks, and wide receiver Makai Lemon is showing himself to be a dynamic pass-catching threat despite his limited opportunities in the past."

Where do you think this team is mentally after this stretch of four losses in five games?

Tajwar: "I have to imagine it's a rather bad place. Losing close games is always brutally tough, but a team has to adjust by considering how close they were to getting it right and retaining an idea of the big-picture goals left to be achieved. After four devastating, tight losses that ensure that there's hardly anything left to play for this season, I don't feel as though it's likely that much of that spirit lingers. Even last week against Maryland, it appeared as though the team had lost some focus. With another loss in the bag, I'd unfortunately assume that guys are starting to mentally check out to some extent. Holding them all together and getting the team motivated again falls to the head coach, and we'll see if Lincoln Riley can prove my prognostication wrong."

Ryan: "That is the ultimate question that is going to get answered Saturday night. I see nothing to lead me to think Lincoln Riley has lost this team in any way or that the players are going to lack motivation after the setbacks that have defined their season. There is a lot of youth on this roster that is still ascending with an eye toward the future, I do believe in Miller Moss as a leader and galvanizing presence for this team and I know he won't have any less edge than he's had to this point. But, sure, I do wonder about the toll of having four heartbreaking losses essentially strip away all notable goals for this season barely past the halfway point. If USC comes out flat in this one and/or loses, the conversation around this season changes to an even higher level of scrutiny and the doubts about Riley and Co. will amplify even more significantly. USC needs to show something these next five games, and I'm still inclined to think it will."

What will USC's final regular-season record be?

Ryan: "Oof, um ... what a hard team to read and project. I'll say 7-5, without pinning myself down on which game they lose. They could certainly beat Notre Dame and yet come out flat against Washington, Nebraska or UCLA. I'd believe anything at this point, but I think the improbable string of last-minute losses regulates and the Trojans salvage at least some Ws the rest of the way."

Tajwar: "8-5. This is a team more than capable of running the table in theory, and arguably could have easily won every one from the start of the year. All the same, we've seen their penchant for losing close games, and a lack of motivation and focus going forward could lead to a few more of those. At this point, a loss in any given week would not be surprising. As such, my decision to only predict one more loss out of the remaining games almost feels generous."

What jumps out to you about the matchup with Rutgers?

Tajwar: "This is a strong Rutgers offensive line and running game, and I want to see if the defensive front can replicate the strong performance it put up against Penn State on the ground. The Trojans have a lot less to play for now than then and have also lost perhaps their best lineman in Anthony Lucas, but I'm eager to see if D'Anton Lynn's schematic adjustments are effective and how the younger talent across the front seven rises to the task. In particular, I really want to see how Jide Abasiri, Kam Fountain and Desman Stephens handle this matchup."

Ryan: "I think the Scarlet Knights are rather one-dimensional offensively, but with one of the best running backs in the Big Ten in Kyle Monangai (845 rushing yards, 5.5 yards per carry, 10 TDs). That's where the game hinges for me -- will this be one of the games where USC tackles well and minimizes busts or will it be the opposite. That's the only way I see the Trojans losing this, but then again, considering how creative they've been at finding ways to lose, that is silly to say.

"On the other side, I think USC can be successful through the air or on the ground. Rutgers has gotten gashed both ways in recent games -- 309 rushing yards to Nebraska, 207 to Washington, and 383 passing yards to UCLA and 314 to Washington. USC needs to put together a compelling offensive performance here."

What's your score prediction?

Ryan: "I'll take USC, 42-28. That's right on the spread and my best guess, but boy, have these guesses not been worth much this season!"

Tajwar: "USC, 34-21. The losing has to stop at some point, right? Rutgers has struggled in recent weeks despite a very strong start, and they'll now have to play the Trojans across the country at what is a highly irregular time slot for an East Coast team. Though I don't trust the Trojans to have fully ironed out their issues, I do think we'll see enough pride from key players on both sides of the ball that the Trojans manage to pull away. I tend to feel as though Miller Moss and the receivers will have a bounce-back game here, and that the return of passing-game efficiency will help the USC offense to feel much more effective."

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