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Published Nov 16, 2023
First-and-10: Offseason priorities clear for Lincoln Riley as losses mount
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Tajwar Khandaker  •  TrojanSports
Staff Writer
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@tajwar002

At a certain point, we here at First-and-10 headquarters have been forced to belabor familiar critiques in breaking down USC's performance week after week and explaining how this team went from 6-0 to 7-4 and out of the national picture entirely.

So instead of focusing all of our attention on what went wrong in the 36-27 loss at No. 6 Oregon last weekend, we took a more big-picture approach overall with some overarching takeaways (good and bad) that need to be acknowledged with this season winding down.

1. From tops in turnover margin to turnover-prone

Last year, the Trojans were one of the best teams in the country at avoiding turnovers, giving the ball away just 7 times in 14 games. That was a key component to the team’s success over the course of the year, resulting in more scoring drives per game and keeping the struggling defense from having to work with a short field too frequently. This season, ball security has become a persistent issue for USC, making a significant dent in the overall efficacy of the offense and hamstringing this team in the most crucial of moments. Through just 11 games, the team has almost doubled last year’s turnover total with 13 to date. Nine of those have been fumbles -- compare that to just 2 through the entirety of last season. Those fumbles have largely been the product of sloppy play at the line of scrimmage, attributable to bad snaps, sloppy mesh point execution and poor ball security from Caleb Williams as he scrambles in the backfield, none of which were at all an issue a season ago. Those are mistakes derived more of the mental side of the game than the physical, begging the question of what changed from last year to now to cause such a shift?

A crushing error of that variety throttled the Trojans’ already slim hopes at the end of the third quarter last weekend, as a fumble on a botched handoff gave Oregon the ball back just as the Trojans were threatening to cut the lead to one score. The ability for turnovers to dramatically swing momentum in football games can’t be overstated, and last year the Trojans’ found themselves the beneficiaries of that reality as they led the nation in turnover margin. This year, their propensity for needlessly giving the ball away on largely unforced errors has proved costly in multiple big games; in fact, every single one of the team’s losses this year featured at least one critical, momentum-shifting giveaway that could have easily been avoided (3 interceptions vs ND, MarShawn Lloyd's fumble vs Utah, Williams' fumble before the half vs Washington and fumbled handoff vs Oregon). Some of that is on the quarterback, but much of the responsibility has to fall on the coaches for allowing easily avoidable mistakes to pile up unchecked over the course of a season.

2. Respect due for Brenden Rice and Tahj Washington

Tahj Washington and Brenden Rice have been stars at the receiver position all year for this team, and both players led the way for the USC pass-catching corps at Oregon last weekend with near-identical stat lines.

Washington posted 4 receptions for 82 yards, contributing in the short game with his quickness and skill at the catch point before ripping off one of the Trojans’ biggest plays of the day on an explosive 59-yard catch and run, setting the team up for a touchdown just before the half. Washington’s all-around skill set has been a joy to watch this season as he's piled up a team-leading 47 catches for 915 yards and 6 touchdowns. Though his lack of size can be an obstacle, Washington’s ability to win at all levels of the field with or without the ball in his hands makes him the kind of receiver prospect that NFL teams will surely covet in the early stages of the draft.

Meanwhile, Rice got off to a shaky start as he failed to track a would-be-touchdown properly on an early deep ball from Williams and generally struggled to connect with his quarterback for most of the first half. However, the big receiver stepped up in the second half and especially in the late going as Williams started to look his way with regularity, getting the ball out to Rice quickly and letting him win with his frame early in the route. The effort to force-feed him later in the game proved rather successful as Rice found ways to consistently start beating his man one-on-one, allowing him to finish the night with 5 receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown.

Though Rice’s hands and ability to track the football aren’t yet fully developed, he’s taken big strides as a route runner and improved his ability to maximize the advantage created by his size and athleticism. Additionally, his mental connection with Williams has shone through over the course of the season, as he’s routinely shown the wherewithal to make just the right adjustments late in a play for his quarterback to give him a shot right where he wants it. It's been a true breakout season for Rice, as he's totaled 37 catches for 644 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Both he and Washington have been some of the brightest spots of the Trojans’ 2023 season, and despite the disappointment elsewhere, both deserve to be appreciated for their performance. Washington still has a chance to crack the 1,000-yard mark, while Rice has a shot to finish the season as the national leader in receiving touchdowns if he can add a few more (he's presently 2 behind LSU's Brian Thomas Jr.). Both players are certain to be on the radar for NFL teams looking to pick up a receiver in the first few rounds of next April’s draft.

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