Published Sep 16, 2022
TrojanSports Roundtable: Perspective and predictions for USC-Fresno State
TrojanSports Staff  •  TrojanSports
Staff

What USC fan could have imagined at this time last year that the Trojans would roll into Week 3 of the 2022 season ranked No. 7 in the country with one of the most dynamic offenses around, a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback, a Biletnikoff Award contender at wide receiver and a defense that had forced eight turnovers through two games?

Yes, eventually it will be time to just accept the present reality for what it is and not compare it to the program's nadir last fall, but doesn't it seem like Lincoln Riley's rebuild has progressed quicker than most would have guessed even after he was hired?

The Trojans have the fifth-best odds to the win the national championship right now.

The national championship. ... This team -- well, not really this team, but you get the point -- got bullied by the Pac-12 South week after week last fall.

RELATED: PODCAST: Dissecting Lincoln Riley's best play calls | Scouting the opponent: Fresno State could be toughest challenge yet

The start of the Lincoln Riley Era has been a best-case scenario, and for all USC fans have endured the last handful of years, they should absolutely embrace the polar opposite end of the spectrum and bask in the newfound hype around the program.

But within the locker room, Riley emphasizes a different approach -- stay in the moment, stick to the process and make sure the best version of the 2022 Trojans is still to come.

"I think the biggest thing is just keep it real. Now that we’ve won two games, that’s great, but ... never from one point did we come in here and say that our goal is to win the first two games of the season. That’s a fantastic start. But our goals are our goals, and those aren't changing," Riley said Thursday. "I think our message continues regardless of what happens. It's, we’re going to highlight and make sure that everyone understands the good that’s happening, the things that are happening at a high level. We’re going to encourage that and encourage to get it from more people. The things that aren’t happening at a championship level, on or off the field, we’re going to be very direct about, we’re going to correct it, regardless of the end result of success or not. ...

"We try to never change. We try to be very consistent in our approach and our message. And there is a fine line. You can’t not enjoy and appreciate going and getting wins, especially on the road. They’re important. But the fine line is you have to have the perspective to be able to correct what you have to correct because every week is going to be a new challenge, and you've to be able to continue to get better if you want to win consistently. Period."

These Trojans can certainly still get better.

They rank 70th in the country in total defense, giving up 360.5 yards per game, and would have been in a shootout with Stanford last week if not for the four forced turnovers (two coming near the goal line.)

And the offense ... well, Riley will reiterate how the offense can improve too, but we'll leave that to him. USC is tied for first in the country in scoring at 53.5 points per game and ranks tied for 12th in total offense at 521.5 yards per game. Simply maintaining that would be a feat.

It's only two games, but yeah, USC football is starting to look, feel and sound like USC football again.

Next up is very capable Fresno State team (1-1) that lost on the final play last week to Oregon State, 35-32. The Bulldogs won 10 games last season, and even though they lost head coach Kalen DeBoer to Washington, they brought back former coach Jeff Tedford, who is of course familiar to Pac-12 football and has an impressive track record.

Fresno State is led by star quarterback Jake Haener (4,096 passing yards, 33 TDs and 9 INTs last year) and running back Jordan Mims, who has 3,007 combined rushing and receiving yards in his career and 31 touchdowns.

Defensively, the Bulldogs rank just two spots ahead of the Trojans at No. 70 nationally, yielding 357 yards a game.

Nonetheless, this could prove to be USC's toughest overall test yet in this young season.

"Not many weaknesses, you know what I mean. They're just, they're good everywhere," Riley said of the Bulldogs. "The quarterback's really good. They've got some other outstanding players -- the safety [Evan Williams] is a tremendous player, a couple D-linemen that really stand out. Maybe more than just the standout individual guys, you don't look at one part of their team like, 'The O-line's not really good, the DBs are not very good.' They're good everywhere.

"They're very experienced, they know how to win. They've obviously got a staff of guys that are extremely experienced and know how to get it done at this level. I think those are some of the toughest teams because there's not, you just don't identify a ton of weaknesses on tape. And you know you've got to be on your game."

Back in the Coliseum for a 7:30 p.m. PT kickoff Saturday (on FOX), the surging Trojans, their Heisman candidate QB Caleb Williams, reigning Biletnikoff-winning receiver Jordan Addison, turnover-taking defense and the rest of the cast will look to keep raising expectations in the eyes of the national college football audience while taking the next steps in the eyes of their exacting head coach.

With that, the TrojanSports.com staff of Ryan Young, Tajwar Khandaker and Jeff McCulloch deliver their weekly batch of perspective and predictions ...

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Staff roundtable

USC is already No. 7 in the country and the schedule is looking more and more favorable. How realistic do you now think a College Football Playoff appearance is in Year 1 of the Riley Era?

Ryan: Slow it on down there. Playoffs? Playoffs?! We're two games into the season and ... and ... well, I really can't offer any reasons why it wouldn't be feasible. I mean, Lincoln Riley made three CFP appearances in his five years as head coach at Oklahoma, doing so with dominant offenses and less-than-dominant defenses. I'm certainly not ready to predict a CFP appearance, but I did pick 10-2 as my expected regular-season record before the season so my expectations have always been close to that realm. Let's see a few more games before driving the train on the playoff talk, but yes, it's absolutely realistic.

Tajwar: I’d say that it’s still quite unlikely but certainly within the realm of possibility. We’ve seen Pac-12 champion Oregon and Washington teams make the playoffs previously, and I think this team is certainly capable of having that kind of season on the back of a hyper-efficient offense. With that said, however, it’s still just too early to know how this team will look against a higher tier of competition, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Utah, Notre Dame and UCLA figure to be the big question marks for the year, and if USC drops even two of those any playoff aspirations are likely to vanish into thin air. For the time being, I’m still inclined to believe this team drops 2-3 games through this season with a chance to secure a Pac-12 title nonetheless. The playoffs are still a longshot, but possible if things shake out the right way.

Jeff: The game against Fresno State will tell us everything we need to know. If the Trojans beat Fresno State handily and the defense can get the takeaways they need, this team can very much be a playoff team. Starting this season, I had USC losing to Notre Dame and Utah. Now, they will beat this bad Notre Dame team, and Utah isn’t as strong as it has been in years past. Fresno State and Oregon State will be two very telling back-to-back games for this defense. If the defense can stop Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener and Oregon State quarterback Chance Nolan, the Trojans have a good chance of being 11-1 or even 12-0. The defense is the only question as USC has one of the best offenses in college football. And the defensive line is one of the weakest areas on this defense and needs to get better if they want to be a playoff team as SEC offensive lines will run right through them.

What's been the biggest surprise so far on offense?

Tajwar: I’d have to say that I’ve been taken aback by how little the tight end group has been involved in the passing game. The successes elsewhere haven’t really been much of a surprise -- Caleb Williams and his WR corps were expected to dazzle, the offensive line returned nearly all of its talent from a solid 2021, and the running back group had evident talent and depth to it. The tight end position, however, has often been a focal point of Lincoln Riley’s previous offenses, both from the H-back spot and in more traditional alignments. Obviously, two games is a very limited sample size, but through those the Trojans have only managed 4 receptions to tight ends -- 3 to Lake McRee and one to Malcolm Epps. McRee caught the opening touchdown of the game against Stanford, but otherwise it really hasn’t appeared that there’s been any directed effort to get the ball to him or Epps. Given the plethora of weapons elsewhere on the offense it makes sense for the football to be schemed to other positions. I just expected more opportunities for the tight ends. Once again, though, we’re just two games in. We could see 10 tight end targets Saturday and I’ll have written this paragraph for no real reason.

Ryan: It's two things for me. One, the offense finding such seamless cohesion so quickly. I don't care if there was a let-up in the second half last week, this team has been dominant in the first half of the first two games, Caleb Williams has been near perfect in those opening halves and the commitment to blocking at all levels and from all players reflects a unit that is fully bought-in to the plan. I would have expected it to take more time. And secondly, I underestimated just how important adding Jordan Addison would be for the offense. I thought he was a luxury when he transferred in. USC already had so many intriguing receivers -- but it didn't have a Jordan Addison. I see now why he won the Biletnikoff last year, and he can absolutely win it again.

Jeff: "The biggest surprise on offense this season to me is the talent at the running back position. I knew this was a good group, but with the depth being so small I didn’t think they would perform like they have. Coming into the season I was fully expecting the carries to be divvied out like this: 70% Dye, 20% Jones, 10% Brown. In reality, at least through the first two games, it's been more balanced. I understand USC loving Raleek Brown and wanting to use him for his special talents, but I guessed they were slowly going to integrate him into the offense. Instead, he is a solid piece in the rotation. Austin Jones' skills as a running back have truly surprised me. He is a talented runner in between the tackles and has improved exponentially breaking tackles. And Travis Dye is Travis Dye. He is just a hardworking running back who will do anything at the position and do it well. Dye is a phenomenal pass blocker as he has the blocking highlight of the season so far. He runs extremely well between the tackles and can burst through any hole. Not only does he have the best pass block this season, but he also has the most memorable rushing touchdown this season as his 27-yard score against Stanford was the easiest touchdown he has ever had in his career.

What's been the biggest surprise on defense?

Jeff: I'll start. The biggest surprise on this defense must be Eric Gentry. I knew he had a chance of being really good, but I thought he was going to need another year of development in the new position. Instead, he is the leader of this defense as he leads the teams in tackles and is a mainstay out there. Coming into the season, I thought that role was going to be Shane Lee. Gentry has really improved over the summer as he has been reading the offense really well and can go sideline to sideline. Really impressed with how quick he learned the defense and with his size there it's very hard for opposing offenses to plan for him because no one has faced a 6-foot-6 middle linebacker.

Tajwar: The play of Max Williams at safety has really caught me by surprise to this point. He’s always showed a willingness to tackle and a good feel for zone coverage when on the field, but the transition from corner to safety is still a tough one. It requires a very different understanding of pursuit angles, places a much higher emphasis on form tackling, and necessitates a completely different process of reading the play out from the snap. Having missed prolonged periods of time through his entire USC career, including all of last season, coming back this fall was going to be a tough ask of the defensive back even without a position switch. However, somehow Williams has not missed a beat, playing the safety spot across from Calen Bullock as though it’s been his natural position all along. He’s been remarkably sound in coverage on the back end, yet to give up a play in his zone to this point by my count. Williams has also been a legitimate positive for the defense as a downhill tackler, bringing the boom with frequency and finishing his tackles with consistency. He’s already forced both an interception and a fumble, and his style of play should be conducive to making plays on the football with regularity when he's on the field. I didn’t expect anything close to this level of play fresh out the gates from Williams, but he’s only primed to keep getting better as he learns the nuances of the position.

Ryan: I thought about Williams, for sure. I just have always been bullish on him -- he's a high football IQ guy (per every coach that's worked with him) and has always been aggressive in everything he does. I like the answer, though. For mine, I'll say just the speed and physicality of the unit. It just looks different from last season. No, the Trojans haven't fixed everything. The interior of the defensive line is still an issue against the run, there's a lot of room for improvement across the board. But it looks different, and I actually thought it would take more time to start establishing a new identity on that side of the ball. It's a work in progress but progressing quicker than I expected.

How concerned should USC be for this matchup with Fresno State?

Ryan: Concerned? No. Who's writing these questions? (It was me and in hindsight I regret that word choice). The Trojans certainly need to take it seriously and I do buy that the Bulldogs could pose the toughest test yet, but this is an uberly-confident USC team that knows it is the one applying the pressure to most any opponent with its prodigious offense. Fresno State is very capable and could absolutely shred this Trojans defense and make a game of it, but the pressure is all on the Bulldogs. They can't lag for a couple series or they may lose pace with these Trojans for good.

Jeff: This is the best team USC will face so far in this season, which will make this a good test for this defense. The big challenge in this game will be the prolific Fresno State offense against this defense that needs to be tested. If the Trojans keep quarterback Jake Haener off balance and win the turnover game, they will show college football this defense isn’t as bad as everyone thinks it is.

Tajwar: The Trojans certainly can’t take this game lightly, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The Fresno State offense moves the football highly efficiently both through the air and on the ground. Quarterback Jake Haener is a baller, plain and simple, and he will absolutely create headaches for this defense in coverage with his quick decision-making and accuracy. He’s got a legitimate cast of weapons to work with, as well as a run game that features a pair of dynamic backs in Jordan Mims and Malik Sherrod. If the offense even stumbles a small bit, this could quickly turn into a shootout. The Trojans must carefully avoid mistakes with the ball and be on full alert on defense for a serious test."

What's your prediction?

Tajwar: USC 45, Fresno State 31. I hate to keep repeating myself week in and week out, but once again I feel that keeping up with the pace of the Trojan offense will be too much for the Bulldogs to bear. Fresno State’s defense features some solid players, but this group isn’t much better across the board than the Cardinal was last week. The USC run game should be able to take advantage of a group that got steamrolled by Oregon State on the ground, and Caleb Williams and Co. should continue the kind of dominance they’ve exhibited so far. USC very well might struggle on the other side of the ball, giving up long drives and multiple scores to Haener and the Fresno State offense. Even still, their ability to buckle down in the redzone and to force turnovers will likely save enough points for the offense to bring this one home.

Jeff: USC wins 52-35. Fresno State will score against this defense, no doubt about that, but they will not be able to keep up with this Trojan offense. With Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison against the weak Fresno State defense, USC should be able to score at will. This could be the game Eric Gentry gets his interception and Mekhi Blackmon will continue to get tested and show teams why he is the No. 1 corner at USC, shutting down Nikko Remigio.

Ryan: USC, 48-28. I can't say anything that hasn't been said already. This offense is too good.