TrojanSports Roundtable: Staff perspective and predictions for USC-Cal

Cal has beaten USC just two times in the last 18 seasons, but those two wins both came within the last three meetings -- in 2018 at the Coliseum and the fitting finale to a dismal Trojans season last year in Berkeley.

That was something of a nadir for the program, as the beleaguered Trojans couldn't even convince their full roster to make the trip for what would be an uninspired 24-14 loss.

Of course, so much has changed since then.

USC (7-1, 5-1 Pac-12) is No. 9 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings with a legitimate chance to climb into the top 4 by season's end while also chasing a Pac-12 championship.

It also might be time for the Trojans to start considering the value of style points as they seek to maneuver up those CFP rankings.

Cal (3-5, 1-4), meanwhile, has lost four straight games, including providing the lone win of the season for lowly Colorado, as it visits the Coliseum tonight (7:30 p.m. PT on ESPN).

It's been a tough season for the Bears of Berkeley, who have an uphill climb to bowl eligibility with a loaded second half schedule that included No. 8 Oregon last week (a 42-24 Cal loss), the No. 9 Trojans on the road this week, No. 23 Oregon State on the road next week, a rivalry game with Stanford and then No. 12 UCLA to close it out.

As for Saturday night, there's no telling how many injuries USC will be dealing with again this week. Coach Lincoln Riley was vague at best when asked Thursday for an update on wide receiver Jordan Addison and linebackers Eric Gentry and Ralen Goforth, who all missed the last game (not to mention wide receiver Mario Williams, left guard Andrew Vorhees, who were also sidelined last week, and left tackle Bobby Haskins, who seemed to get banged up again late in that win at Arizona).

"Good week for them. Good week for them. Really good progress. We’ve been able to use them all a bit in the back half of the week, which has been promising. I think we’re going to be right up on the edge and have to make some tough decisions here right towards [Friday] afternoon and into gametime on where these guys are at," Riley said. "Been pleased with the progress. That’s been important, obviously. None of these guys had just simple, out a couple of days injuries. But a lot of improvement. The bye week obviously helped. It was good to be able to get through the last game without playing those guys and that time has certainly aided in it. So we’ll have a bunch of close calls leading into Saturday."

Part of that equation might be the reality that if USC can get through another week without pushing any of those players back it then can extend the rest yet another week with overmatched Colorado coming to town next Friday, in an effort to get full strength before the big finishing stretch against UCLA and Notre Dame.

Regardless of who takes the field Saturday night, the Trojans know what they have to do -- win (and maybe win convincingly) -- to help their very real shot at turning this already satisfying season into something truly special.

With that, let's get into the weekly TrojanSports.com staff roundtable as we discuss and debate the key storylines and make predictions for the game ...

Now that the CFP rankings are out, what percentage chance do you give USC to make the playoffs?

Ryan Young: "I'm going to go 25 percent. That, of course, factors in what USC needs to do and what the Trojans need to have happen. The path seems clear in concept, as I broke down earlier this week. It's most likely that one of the three SEC teams above the Trojans in the rankings will fall out of the picture (though the potential for a one-loss Alabama team to beat the winner of Georgia/Tennessee in the SEC championship game and create a scenario with three deserving one-loss SEC teams is a concern that can't be overlooked.) The loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game likely falls out. And then it's down to Clemson and TCU taking a first loss somewhere, which remains plenty possible for both teams -- the Tigers because they have looked shaky and the Horned Frogs because they still have Texas, Baylor and a likely Big 12 championship game matchup to get through. If all of that plays out AND USC wins out and beats Oregon (now No. 8 but with the potential to be even higher a few weeks from now) in the Pac-12 championship game, I think the Trojans slide in as a 12-1 team whose only loss came by a point in the final minute on the road at Utah. That's a compelling case. Of course, that requires USC to do its part, and that's no guarantee. UCLA is a tough matchup for this Trojans defense, Notre Dame is a rivalry game in which nothing can be assumed and Oregon is probably the worst matchup possible for the Trojans with its dominant running game and highly-mobile dual-threat QB. I think it's more likely USC falls short on its end than anything else, but the potential is certainly there for the Trojans, which make these next few weeks so exciting."

Tajwar Khandaker: "20% seems about right to me. First of all, any shot to make the playoff now depends on an undefeated finish to the season at the very least. The Notre Dame game won’t be a cakewalk, and both the UCLA matchup and potential Pac-12 title game are likely to pose serious challenges for this team. If they do run that gauntlet cleanly, the Trojans will still require help to clear out the teams ahead of them. In particular the cluster of three SEC schools and two Big Ten schools will be tough to wedge past, while potentially undefeated TCU and Clemson may also be difficult to overtake. The pathway for USC to make the playoff is definitely still open, but I’m not confident in the sequence of events necessary to get them there."

Jeff McCulloch: "USC is still in the running, but I give them about a 25% chance of getting in. With Ohio State, Michigan, Tennessee and Georgia taking three of the spots most likely, the Trojans need to win out and beat Oregon in the Pac-12 championship. Not only that, they will need help from other teams. This is a big weekend for the playoffs as Georgia faces Tennessee, Alabama faces LSU and Clemson faces Notre Dame. It will be useful for the Trojans if Alabama and Clemson would lose as that would most likely take both of those teams out of the running. It doesn’t matter too much who wins the Tennessee and Georgia game because the one loss will keep the loser well in contention. In the overall picture, if Michigan loses one game, their schedule does not compete with USC’s schedule so USC would get in before them. I don’t think TCU will stay undefeated. USC’s strength of schedule will look good, theoretically, beating Oregon, UCLA and Oregon State. Another advantage USC has when it comes to comparing them against other conferences, the Pac-12 is arguably the second-best conference in football behind the SEC this season. USC needs a lot of help, but its dreams are still possible."