TrojanSports Roundtable: Staff perspective and predictions for USC-Cal

While this USC football season has turned into a letdown in the eyes of a fan base that harbored College Football Playoff hopes (or more), the reality remains the Trojans are still alive in the Pac-12 race if they can find their old form offensively.

That's a big 'if,' certainly.

"I think as a team now, yeah, I mean, that’s kind of the big question is, how do you create that? That little spark, the thing that really gets you going? And in my career, this is not a magic speech, this is not the Hollywood movies where there’s that one moment. You gotta go roll up your sleeves and get your hands dirty and go to work, and you got to stay together and you gotta keep persevering," coach Lincoln Riley said this week. "And typically, if you do that and keep getting better, the results that you want will come. And then the momentum off of, all right, we had a tough stretch, we haven’t played to the way we think we can play, and you persevere it and you overcome it, the energy and the excitement and the camaraderie that comes from that is so powerful. And that’s the opportunity we got right now, but we gotta go take advantage of it.

"Because if we can do that and get on a run – we’ve still got a lot of stuff in front of us, man."

No. 24 USC (6-2, 4-1 Pac-12) is clinging to the edge of the national rankings after consecutive losses to Notre Dame and Utah -- and really a stretch of five underwhelming performances in all -- but the Trojans have a prime opportunity to get right Saturday on the road against Cal (3-4, 1-3).

The Golden Bears' lone wins this season have come against North Texas (3-4), FCS-level Idaho and Arizona State (1-6) while they have been blown out by Washington and Utah and lost by double-figures to Oregon State as well so far in Pac-12 play.

Cal is onto its third quarterback of the season in redshirt freshman Fernando Mendoza, after ineffective play from transfers Sam Jackson V (TCU) and Ben Finley (NC State), but of course, the Trojans are fresh off getting bested by a third-string, former walk-on QB in Utah's Bryson Barnes.

So, yes, USC still has everything to prove in this game even as 10-point favorites on the road.

But a resurgent performance Saturday and there is at least hope that maybe this Trojans team can surprise some people down the stretch. Otherwise, it's going to be a long month of November for the Trojans and their fans.

"There’s so much parity in college ball right now. You see that all across the country, where there’s teams that have gotten beat or teams that have been pushed right there to the brink. I mean, there’s a lot of stuff that’s going to happen here over the next several weeks, a lot of things that are gonna surprise a lot of people. And so, we gotta handle our own here and go find a way to go up here and get a win, get some momentum going and then we can be a pretty dangerous team down the stretch if we can find that," Riley said. "That’s our jobs, and how to do it, first thing is, you got to bind together, roll up your sleeves and go get it done. And that’s the chance we got.”

Before the Trojans kickoff at Cal at 1 p.m PT Saturday (on Pac-12 Network), our TrojanSports.com staff gets you set for the key storylines and our predictions in the weekly roundtable.

What do you make of the sudden chatter about Lincoln Riley’s future?

Ryan Young: "To me, it seems to be a lot of people grasping for a storyline. Let's look at this logically. First, Riley said after the game last week, 'There are going to be championship expectations here and those aren't going anywhere. We're not going anywhere. We signed up to do this thing for a long time.' Mind you, he wasn't asked about his status, about NFL rumors or anything else of that ilk. He said that unprompted. Why would someone who contemplating leaving for the NFL say that when there was no pressure to address it? Furthermore ... Riley clearly seemed affected by the backlash he got for leaving Oklahoma -- why would he want to incur that again for bailing after two years with the job very much unfinished at USC? Makes no sense, especially for a highly-competitive guy who surely cares about his legacy and place in the game. What about the assistants and staff he had move from Oklahoma to join him here? He's going to bring all of them to the NFL or leave them out to dry when he departs two years in? I don't think so. Nobody has ever seen Riley's actual USC contract, but I'm sure it also includes a hefty exit fee, as most contracts do this early into their duration. Add in that aside from a potential opening with the Los Angeles Chargers, any NFL job would require uprooting his family and young children again and leaving his palatial estate on the coast. Not buying it. Put it all together, and the Riley to the NFL rumors make zero sense. A handful of years down the road? Perhaps. But not now."

Tajwar Khandaker: "It didn’t surprise me at all. Riley’s previous comments about wanting to go to the NFL not too far into the future, the sudden nature of his move from Oklahoma to USC, and the circumstances of last weekend and his absence in its aftermath were bound to culminate in the pushing of narratives questioning his next moves. A response like that was bound to manifest nationally, especially among the not-insignificant cohort of fans who’d love to see the scenario of Riley’s departure play out. Though I do think Riley will jump to the next level soon enough -- 5 years feels like the maximum duration of his tenure at USC to me -- I don’t see any reasons to expect him to jump ship in the near future. The project of building this program back up was always going to take some time, and he knew that. At the conclusion of this season, I’m thinking he’ll likely make some key staff changes and head into next year trying to build momentum off of that. Riley’s time as a Trojan may be limited, but I seriously doubt it’s already running out."

Jeff McCulloch: "I think the storyline is intriguing, following your Heisman-winning quarterback to the NFL and being his head coach straight from college. I just don’t see it happening. He has preached about this rebuild at USC needing time and that building the culture here is so important to him. For his legacy, he needs to stay at USC and build a juggernaut of a program. Although he says he plans to be here for a while, this is the same guy who tells us this defense is really good. So you never know what’s going to happen, but it would be a bad move on Riley’s part to leave this program so early in the rebuild."

What is the most intriguing offensive storyline this game?

Tajwar: "Can Caleb Williams get right? This is the singular question USC’s season now hinges on. He’s been out of it in recent weeks in a way that we’ve never seen before, and the issues have appeared to compound from one game to the next. I have no doubts that he’s entirely capable of excelling at the level we’ve previously seen, but it’s a question of what it takes (and how long) for him to kick it back into gear. Facing a Cal defense that will be much more forgiving than the last two he played, this should be a prime opportunity for Williams to have a 'get-right game,' potentially helping to restabilize his confidence for the final stretch of the year. If he keeps struggling with his decision-making however, there’ll be good reason to keep ringing the alarm bells."

Ryan: "The run game and whether it will exist for all four quarters! Riley acknowledged MarShawn Lloyd's costly fumble last week played into his limited usage late in the game, but Lloyd only got 2 carries in total after the first quarter despite taking his 7 total carries for 86 yards and a touchdown (12.3 yards per carry). And despite being one of the best running backs in the country all season. Among Power 5 running backs averaging at least 10 carries a game, Lloyd leads the entire FBS in yards per carry at 7.94. Get that man more touches! Especially with Caleb Williams not looking totally right in recent weeks."

Jeff: "The offensive storyline for this game is who will step up and bring this offense back to where it was in the beginning of the season. The past few weeks we blamed the offensive line, but that group was really good last week and the offense still struggled. USC needs to run the ball more and I’m not sure why Riley keeps going away from the run. The run has been working, but he won't stick with it. Like Ryan said, I understand Lloyd had his fumble last week in a crucial situation, but he can truly take over a game with his running ability. He should be getting the ball 20 times a game. This will open up the pass game for Caleb Williams and the wide receivers. A storyline that’s not getting enough attention is the wide receivers are not getting open. Multiple times in the past few games Williams is holding the ball for way too long in the pocket, waiting for the receivers to get open. They have a talented group, they just need to figure out what that problem is and fix it quick."

What's the most intriguing defensive storyline Saturday?

Ryan: "I guess it's whether USC can avoid letting another backup/third-string quarterback have a career day against its defense. Cal tried TCU transfer Sam Jackson V and NC State transfer Ben Finley at quarterback the first part of the season before moving onto redshirt freshman and former two-star prospect Fernando Mendoza the last two games. In his first start, Mendoza passed for 207 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT vs. Oregon State and then passed for just 149 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT vs. Utah before Cal's bye week. Both were losses to ranked teams. Can the Trojans avoid turning Mendoza into the latest Bryson Barnes ... or Noah Fifita ... or Drew Pyne?"

Jeff: "The defensive storyline this week is will they be able to stop Cal’s running back Jaydn Ott? USC hasn’t faced a running back this good all season and still consistently struggles against the run. This feels like a game where the linebackers truly need to step up and make some plays in the run game. We will see if that happens. Also, the defensive line needs to step up. Bear Alexander, who doesn’t show up in the stat sheet very often, will miss the first half of this game due to his targeting penalty in the fourth quarter of the Utah game. Someone needs to fill his void and make a big impact to help stop this Cal running game. For the first time this season, the question marks are with the defensive line instead of the defensive backs, who played really well against Utah. The linebackers have always been in issue, meanwhile."

Tajwar: "Yeah, after getting utterly gashed on the ground by Utah, USC’s run defense will face another challenge in the form of star running back Jaydn Ott. Ott is a fantastic runner, and though he doesn’t run behind a great offensive line, he’s plenty capable of giving this Trojans front a lot of trouble. Two weeks ago, USC’s defense actually fared quite well against a strong Notre Dame running game; the potential is there for this group to play better than they have for most of the year, but that requires significant adjustment on the part of the defensive decision-makers. Whether or not we’ll see the right adjustments of personnel and scheme is the question, and history would lead me to lean toward the latter outcome right now. If USC does put forward a good showing against Cal’s run game, it’ll be small, but not insignificant, reason for optimism."

Which USC player needs to see more snaps the rest of the way?

Tajwar: "There are a number of other players who could warrant an answer to this question, but the need for Raesjon Davis to be on the field often is the most glaring. Davis has appeared to be the best linebacker on this team all year to me, and I just haven’t been able to fathom why Tackett Curtis and Mason Cobb have held onto starting spots in his stead down the stretch. Playing Davis instantly improves the floor of the USC defense in my eyes, thanks to his aptitude in coverage and ability to fit the run with good instincts and aggression (his tackling needs some work still). He’s just a far more reliable player than either of the two guys getting starters’ snaps ahead of him, and he should be deployed as such."

Jeff: "Agreed, for me, this is easy. WE NEED TO SEE MORE RAESJON DAVIS. I know our board wants to see more Davis, but I just don’t understand why the Trojans are basically forcing Tackett Curtis to play in such pivotal moments. I’m confident he will be a good player for the Trojans down the line, but now is not his time. It is so confusing when we watch the game back and see Curtis just over-pursue a running back or get demolished by a lineman, yet he is consistently getting the majority of the snaps while Davis plays a limited role but looks really good doing it. I have always thought the talent in the linebacker room is there, but USC keeps playing the wrong personnel. I don’t think the Trojans have a lot to lose if they play Davis more and Curtis less. No matter what kind of game Mason Cobb plays, he will always be out on the field for the entire game, he’s that important to how this defense works. While he has had his struggles with missed tackles, his leadership is something this defense needs on the field."

Ryan: "I'll give you an offensive name -- freshman receiver Zachariah Branch. Even though he makes his presence felt every game, he played just 21 offensive snaps last week. I'd have him on the field the majority of the game. Riley has already shown an interest in getting him the ball in a variety of ways, and that versatility should mean the potential to have him out there for far more snaps than he's currently playing."

What is your score prediction for Saturday?

Tajwar: "USC, 45-20. After dropping consecutive games against good teams, the Trojans simply have to come out with a vengeance against a Bears team that isn’t really scaring anyone. Cal has some talented players scattered across this roster and has put up feisty resistance against a few good teams, but realistically that team isn’t built to score points at any reliable rate. USC’s run game in particular should play a big part in controlling this game for the team. The offensive line really came together last week after a few personnel shifts and did an impressive job of clearing lanes against the nation’s best run defense; the problem was simply that the team stopped running the ball after the first quarter. Coming into this week, I expect the Trojans to run considerably more, even if that’s still not as much as I’d like. At the end of the day, USC’s firepower should take them past the weakest conference opponent they’ve faced since Stanford fairly easily."

Jeff: "USC, 42-28. I hate guessing the score for USC as this group is so unpredictable. At some point this offense needs to find it rhythm and have a dominant performance like they have shown us is possible (in the beginning of the season). This is the type of opponent that will allow you to get back on track, at least offensively. I’m really concerned about Cal’s run game, though. Jaydn Ott is a really talented running back and can carve up this defense unless it has made some adjustments. The problem is adjusting isn’t something this defense is known for doing."

Ryan: "Fellas, we're going to get **** from the subscribers for picking USC to win again. But I can't pick Cal in this one. I'll take the Trojans, 34-27. Cal hasn't beat even a semi-good team yet with its wins coming against North Texas, Idaho and Arizona State. It got blown out by Washington and Utah and lost by 12 to Oregon State. I expect USC can at least get past the Golden Bears."