Published Nov 29, 2024
Matchup Breakdown: Trojans get final top-5 test vs. Notre Dame
Ryan Young  •  TrojanSports
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One of the wilder stats you'll see related to this USC football season is how the Trojans are one of six teams nationally to have led in the fourth quarter of every game this season.

USC has turned that into a 6-5 record, and fans need no rehashing at this point of how that happened.

Meanwhile, the other five teams on that listed entered the week with five combined losses. One of those is No. 5-ranked Notre Dame (10-1), which took its only loss way back in early September on a late field goal in the final minute by Northern Illinois for a 16-14 upset.

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On Saturday, the Trojans close out the regular season in the Coliseum against the Fighting Irish, looking to cap the slate on a three-game win streak and pull a top-5 upset against their longtime rivals.

Let's take a closer look at how the teams stack up and our scouting report of Notre Dame.

RELATED: Opposing View: Notre Dame insider Tyler James gives his perspective on the other side of the rivalry showdown

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Game info

Who | No. 5 Notre Dame (10-1) vs. USC (6-5)

Where | LA Memorial Coliseum

When | 12:30 p.m. PT Saturday

TV | CBS with Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson and Jenny Dell

Radio | ESPNLA 710 AM with Pete Arbogast, Shaun Cody, Cody Kessler, Su’a Cravens, Jordan Moore and Jason Schwartz starting at 10:30 a.m.

Series history | Notre Dame leads 51-37-5 (not counting one vacated USC win)

Betting line | Notre Dame -7.5 (over/under set at 52.5)

Statistical comparison

How USC and Notre Dame stack up statistically
Notre DameStatUSC

39.0 PPG (6th nationally)

Scoring

29.3 PPG (56th)

419.9 YPG (40th)

Total offense

429.7 YPG (32nd)

11.6 PPG (2nd)

Scoring defense

21.2 PPG (32nd)

273.1 YPG (4th)

Total defense

365.7 YPG (65th)

198.1 YPG (99th)

Passing offense

285.5 YPG (T-13th)

139.5 YPG (1st)

Passing defense

235.6 YPG (93rd)

221.8 YPG (10th)

Rushing offense

144.3 YPG (84th)

133.6 YPG (48th)

Rushing defense

130.1 YPG (43rd)

2.64/game (31st)

Sacks

1.64/game (T-98th)

1.18/game (T-20th)

Sacks allowed

1.18/game (T-20th)

+16 (2nd)

Turnover margin

-2 (T-81st)

Notre Dame overview

Notre Dame is a late field goal from Northern Illinois away from being undefeated right now.

The Fighting Irish's lone loss came in that 16-14 upset loss to the Huskies back on Sept 7 when they allowed the game-winning field goal in the final minute. Nonetheless, the Irish are in position to clinch a College Football Playoff spot if they can close out a win over the Trojans on Saturday. That would be the program's third CFP berth since the format was put in place in 2015. There is a path for the Irish to make the playoff even with a loss Saturday, but that wouldn't be a sure thing.

Head coach Marcus Freeman is in his third season since being elevated to the top job and has shown steady progress, from 9-4 his first year to 10-3 and now 10-1.

No only have the Irish recovered from the early setback against Northern Illinois, they've dominated. Notre Dame has an incredible point differential of +301 for the season -- as it ranks 6th nationally in scoring at 39 points per game and 2nd in scoring defense at 11.6 PPG allowed.

Notre Dame is No. 4 in total defense (273.1 YPG), No. 1 in passing defense (139.5 YPG) and has won each of its last six games by 21 points or more. Aside from the loss to Northern Illinois, the only other team to even get within a touchdown of the Irish was Louisville in a 31-24 loss in late September.

This certainly looks like the toughest test USC has faced all season.

Scouting Notre Dame's offense

The case can certainly be made that this is the best offense USC has faced all season -- in fact, Trojans defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn made that case himself this week.

"They're very talented. Their offensive line's probably the best offensive line we played all year and both their backs are very good backs. They have big tight ends, they have speed on the outside, so I think overall this is going to be the best offense that we played," Lynn said.

And that's not even mentioning quarterback Riley Leonard, whom Lynn had talked about prior to that quote.

Leonard, a transfer from Duke, has passed for 1,937 yards, 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions and rushed for 671 yards and 13 scores as a dynamic dual-threat QB. Two of his interceptions came in that loss to Northern Illinois, so he's been pretty locked in ever since. The Irish will dial up a number of runs for him, as he had double-digit rushing attempts in 8 of 11 games.

"He's very, very fast and he's so tall and long that he doesn't look that fast on tape, but he covers a lot of ground, so just containing him, especially on third downs is going to be critical," Lynn said. "We've played quarterbacks that scramble around and extend plays, but we haven't played quarterbacks that have as much design runs as well, especially when they get in the red zone. It's really all about him, so it's going to be a little bit different, but our guys are excited about the challenge."

As Lynn noted, Leonard plays behind a strong offensive line. True freshman left tackle Anthonie Knapp has given up a team-high 4 sacks and 21 pressures, but he hasn't allowed a sack in the last five games. Notre Dame's other starting linemen -- redshirt freshman LG Sam Pendleton, redshirt junior C Pat Coogan, redshirt junior RG Rocco Spindler and redshirt sophomore RT Aamil Wagner, have combined to give up just 1 sack all season.

They've also helped clear the way for sophomore running back Jeremiyah Love, who has rushed for 850 yards and 14 touchdowns on 7.0 yards per carry. Even when he's not in, though, the Irish have been just as productive with redshirt sophomore Jadarian Price also averaging 7.0 YPC (540 rushing yards and 6 TDs overall).

As usual, Notre Dame has a solid tight end in 6-foot-5, 260-pound senior Mitchell Evans (24 catches for 213 yards and 2 TDs) while veteran Clemson transfer and former St. John Bosco HS standout Beaux Collins (34-427-2) and sophomore Jaden Greathouse (25-339-1) lead the receivers.

Scouting Notre Dame's defense

How dominant has Notre Dame's pass defense been? The Irish have held four of their last six opponents to fewer than 100 passing yards, including Stanford (87) and Florida State (88) along with ground-heavy teams like Navy and Army. The only teams to have passed for 200+ yards against Notre Dame this season were Louisville (264) and Georgia Tech (269).

Safety Xavier Watts leads the secondary with 40 tackles, 4 interceptions, 8 pass breakups and a forced fumble. USC fans will remember that Watts had 2 INTS and a fumble recovery for a touchdown against the Trojans last season in South Bend. Fellow safety Adon Shuler has 3 picks.

Notre Dame lost top cornerback Benjamin Morrison to a season-ending hip injury in mid-October, but redshirt senior Jordan Clark (1 INT, 3 PBUs, just 13 receptions given up on 26 targets for 82 yards all season and freshman Leonard Moore (2 INTs, 3 PBUs, 2 FF, 15 catches on 26 targets for 202 yards) have been very solid.

Redshirt senior Jack Kiser leads the linebacker unit with 56 tackles and a forced fumble, while sophomore Drayk Bowen (51 tackles, 2 FF) and redshirt freshman Jaiden Ausberry (43 tackles) have also been mainstays in the middle.

Veteran nose tackle Howard Cross III has been sidelined by a sprained ankle sustained earlier this month, but he could return to action Saturday. But redshirt senior Rylie Mills (team-high 6.5 sacks, 18 pressures) has been one of the best defensive tackles in college football this year.

Overall, Notre Dame has forced the most turnovers nationally with 26 -- 15 interceptions and 11 fumbles recovered.

Scouting Notre Dame's special teams

Notre Dame has made just 8 of 17 field goals this season with veteran Mitch Jeter (6 of 11) handling most of them.

Punter James Rendell averages 41.4 yards per attempt and has stuck 16 of 35 punts inside the 20-yard line with 0 touchbacks.

Notre Dame doesn't have a kick return longer than 34 yards or a punt return of more than 15 yards this season.

USC's keys to victory

It very clearly starts with quarterback Jayden Maiava not turning the ball over against an opportunistic defense that leads the country in takeaways.

The Trojans should be talented enough to compete in this game -- as they have in every game this season -- but they don't have much margin for error and any costly turnovers could be too much to overcome.

Logic would say that in facing the top-ranked pass defense in the country that USC would lean heavily on its very productive rushing attack and Woody Marks, but that was the very situation against Washington as well when Lincoln Riley chose to pass it 51 times instead.

Leaning on the ground game would be prudent and take pressure off Maiava, limiting his chances of throwing perilous passes.

Defensively, contain, contain, contain. The Trojans can't let Riley Leonard's rushing abilities swing this game, and they also have to tackle well and limited the explosives from the ground game overall.

Field position is one area where USC can try to gain an advantage in this one, between Makai Lemon's kick return abilities and punter Eddie Czaplicki's incredible field-flipping ability. That will be as key as anything (aside from turnovers) Saturday.