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Published Nov 11, 2023
TrojanSports Roundtable: Staff perspective and predictions for USC-Oregon
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TrojanSports.com

One might say this is a most unideal matchup Saturday night for USC at No. 6-ranked Oregon.

Just consider the things the Trojans haven't done well this season ...

-Play on the road

-Stop the run

-Stop anything, for that matter

USC (7-3, 5-2 Pac-12) now takes on an Oregon team (8-1, 5-1) at Autzen Stadium in what is arguably the loudest road environment in the Pac-12 and where the Ducks have won 29 of their last 30 home games.

The Trojans' beleaguered defense -- fresh off the firing of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch on Sunday, with interim co-DCs Brian Odom and Shaun Nua trying to make fixes on the fly -- now faces the top-scoring offense in college football (47.4 PPG) and more specifically the 10th-ranked rushing offense nationally (208.1 yards per game).

This, after USC got steamrolled on the ground the last three weeks (247 rushing yards allowed to Utah, 235 to Cal and 316 to Washington).

Not surprisingly, the oddsmakers have set USC as a 16-point underdog Saturday night.

RELATED: In-depth matchup breakdown for USC-Oregon | PODCAST: Covering the Alex Grinch aftermath with Antonio Morales and Max Browne | USC's interim co-DCs talk challenge ahead | USC's defensive players look to rally after Grinch firing | RB MarShawn Lloyd expected to 'be available' for Trojans

But this game has major stakes for the Trojans, who can play their way into the Pac-12 championship game with an upset tonight and a win over UCLA next week.

That's the message coach Lincoln Riley has emphasized at every opportunity.

"Excited for our team. We’ve got a big-time challenge and a big-time opportunity right in front of us here with these last two games. Win these two, we can put ourselves in a pretty cool position," Riley said.

"So that’s our focus, my focus going forward. ... We’re very laser-focused on these opportunities ahead. Whatever comes next after that, we’ll deal with it at an appropriate time."

That would be the defensive coordinator search and a full reset for a unit that undermined the Trojans' grander goals of competing for a College Football Playoff or beyond.

A rejuvenated performance from the defense Saturday night with the jolt of the staff change and a fresh look at things this week, though, would indeed position USC to salvage something meaningful still from this season.

But that's a big "if" ...

As always, we get you set for kickoff with our staff predictions and perspective for USC-Oregon in the weekly TrojanSports.com Roundtable.

TrojanSports.com Weekly Roundtable

What changes should Brian Odom and Shaun Nua make to the defensive personnel or approach?

Ryan Young: "Simplify, first and foremost. The Athletic's Antonio Morales had a quote this week from an unnamed opposing Pac-12 assistant coach who said of USC's defense, 'You go no-huddle on ’em, they’re always looking down at their wristbands. They don’t know what they’re doing.' It's been painfully clear that the Trojans couldn't master Alex Grinch's defense (and for that, the blame falls on Grinch), with its complex pre-snap movement and consistent failures in finding enough help to cover up behind an aggressive pass rush. Odom and Nua need to make things simple for USC on Saturday night. Play conservatively, make the Ducks earn their points through long drives -- not the explosive plays that have killed this unit all season. As for personnel, I agree with the sentiments that have been shared on our Trojan Talk board that it would make sense to see more of Kyon Barrs and Bear Alexander playing together in the middle of the defensive line. I'd also get linebacker Raesjon Davis more involved -- not necessarily thrust into a starting role suddenly, but the Trojans are running out of time to evaluate what they have with him before this offseason (when he may have a big decision to make about his future)."

Jeff McCulloch: "Man, where do I start. First things first, like Ryan said, make this defense simple. There have been just far too many times during the Grinch regime with the players either not aligned or not sure what they are supposed to do. Just make it simple for this group. The defense has talented players, it just needs to put them in positions to win.

"Speaking of talented players, I am a believer in Tackett Curtis, but not this year. I don’t know why USC feels like the need to force feed him snaps when he has struggled. Eric Gentry needs to play more as his size in the middle of the field is truly a gamechanger. He made the big pick in the redzone to save USC from giving up another yet touchdown against Washington. The other mystery at the linebacker position is where is Raesjon Davis? Play the kid. Give him a shot. I really don’t know why they won’t give him a shot. Every time they do, he performs well. If this defense really wants to make changes, give these guys a shot, because they can’t be much worse.

"Schematically, I don’t think they are going to be able to make massive changes. They can make tweaks here and there, but they can’t completely change this defense. I hope they make the move to stop dropping their rush ends in coverage. I will never understand why defensive coordinators love to do that. The most Shaun Nua and Brian Odom can really do for this defense that will make an impact is personnel changes. I’d be interested to see if someone else plays the other safety spot opposite of Calen Bullock. I can see USC playing around with that position as that group has struggled all season. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more of Tre’Quon Fegans at that spot, perhaps."

Tajwar Khandaker: "On a personnel basis, the most important shift from the team's previous preferences should be an emphasis on playing bigger bodies on the interior of the defensive line. In previous weeks, we'd seen the Trojans deploy smaller players like Tyrone Taleni and even Solomon Byrd on the inside on a frequent basis, a fact that opposing offensive lines were able to take advantage of to create large running lanes. Matched up against a dominant Oregon run defense, playing stouter body types on the interior should be a priority, especially on early downs. In particular, the duo of Bear Alexander and Kyon Barrs seems like the best option available to take extended snaps together. Elsewhere, it would be good to see players who have been previously phased out of the rotation get more of a chance to play -- particularly the aforementioned Raesjon Davis and also cornerback Ceyair Wright.

"On the schematic level, I'd also just like to see the Trojans run simpler concepts that allow the players on the field to handle their fits in the run game more cleanly, as opposed to the slant-and-twist heavy scheme this group has struggled with recently. Oregon's offense will likely get rolling either way, but keeping the tasks assigned to the Trojan defenders more straightforward should be a good step at giving the players their best chance at succeeding."

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