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Published Oct 21, 2023
TrojanSports Roundtable: Staff perspective and predictions for USC-Utah
Ryan Young  •  TrojanSports
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USC quarterback Caleb Williams' comments this week that his performance at Notre Dame last Saturday was the first bad game of his college career riled up critics and social media antagonists.

But his resume speaks for itself.

Williams only threw 4 interceptions as a freshman at Oklahoma and 5 last season in his Heisman-winning campaign with the Trojans. He'd only ever had one game with multiple picks (as a freshman in 2021 vs. Baylor, when he threw 2).

So yes, throwing three "dumb picks" -- his words -- in the first half of that 48-20 loss at Notre Dame was most definitely an outlier and aberration on his career resume so far.

(That 27-14 Oklahoma loss to Baylor -- in which he was 9-of-18 passing for 142 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs and a rushing TD -- might be the only other "bad" game he's played, if we even need to legislate the specifics of his statement. His production was limited that season against Iowa State as well, but the Sooners won that game and he rushed for 67 yards and a score. And in his worst statistical game last season, at Oregon State, Williams thew an incredible dime for the game-winning touchdown).

The point being, though, that all eyes will be on Williams Saturday to see how he responds and answers back, as he looks to get the No. 18-ranked Trojans (6-1, 4-0 Pac-12) back on track against No. 14 Utah (5-1, 2-1) and its dominant defense that ranks 5th nationally in allowing just 12.2 points per game and 9th in giving up just 277.8 yards per game.

"You know, it's my first bad game in college, I'd say. So you endure, you conquer and you keep going. You don't hang your head," Williams said. "In the moment, obviously, it felt like everything was ... when you throw three picks as a QB and your team goes out there and loses a big rival game, three dumb picks, and you got out there and lose in a rival game like that, you obviously have something that you're feeling from it. So, like I said before, use it as motivation and keep climbing, keep going obviously.

"That's one game in the past three years that I've had a bad game, so you don't let that one game bring you down and cause doubt. That's something that Kobe [Bryant] said -- doubt is a weird thing. When you're striving for greatness, when you're striving for things like that, you'll have failure, you'll have success, but doubt, why even think about it, why even try to have something like that ruin something that you're working super hard for?"

RELATED: In-depth matchup breakdown for USC-Utah | How can USC's offensive line fix itself this deep into the season? | PODCAST: The LA Times' Brady McCollough and Ute Nation's Alex Markham

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Trojans fans have no reason to doubt Williams, who has been consistently amazing in his two seasons at USC. Even with the rare off game last week, his numbers for the season pop -- 2,021 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, plus 6 rushing touchdowns.

Per BetMGM.com, Williams dropped from 2nd to 8th in the Heisman odds at +3500 this week, but Heisman Trophies are won late in the season and if he can rally the Trojans from that setback in South Bend to a strong finish with four ranked opponents ahead over the final five regular-season games, then anything is possible.

But before overeager critics tee off again, Williams didn't talk about that -- those are my words. He talked this week about rallying this team back the same way he did last year after the first loss to Utah, when USC won its final five regular-season games to play its way into the Pac-12 championship game.

That's the goal again -- and as the only loss so far came out of conference, the Trojans still control their path back to Las Vegas.

"We took our first loss, a lot of being on me and things like that, I for sure use as motivation, this team uses as motivation," Williams said. "We always talked about it, you don't want to be in the situation where you have to use it as motivation, but we are in the situation now and so let's use it as motivation, let's keep going, let's find ways to get better."

USC coach Lincoln Riley was asked this week what kind of response he wanted to see from Williams, and his answer was simple -- what he's seen pretty much every other week aside from last Saturday.

Including the games last year against Utah -- when he passed for 381 yards, 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the first meeting and 363-3-1 in the Pac-12 championship clash despite playing most of that game hobbled by an injured hamstring.

"Just let him be himself. That's that," Riley said. "He's played two games against these guys. He's played two really good games against these guys. They are a tough defense, they're very good at what they do, but so are we. It'll be a fun matchup, I'm excited for him. He in his career, in all the time I've had him, when you play this level you're not going to throw 6 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions every game. It's not going to happen. You're going to have some tough moments that don't go your way. It's more about your response, and throughout his career he's always responded when he wasn't at his best.

"He'll be very ready to play this game, he needs to play within himself and go do what he does best. We need to play great on the other 10 positions and everywhere else across the field and that's the plan."

Meanwhile, our TrojanSports.com team sets the stage for the showdown Saturday night in the Coliseum (5 p.m. PT on FOX) with our staff roundtable debate/discussion and score predictions ...

TrojanSports.com Weekly Roundtable

How do you size up USC's chances in the Pac-12 race now?

Ryan Young: "I know this is going to be a counter opinion to the sentiments on our Trojan Talk board and rile up the doomsday detractors, but as I've taken a few days to let the raw thoughts from South Bend settle a bit and objectively look at the situation, I think USC has a 50-percent chance to end up in the Pac-12 championship game. I simply don't believe this team is going to play that badly again, and while it is definitely capable of losing more games, I don't align with the sky-is-falling crowd that suddenly thinks this is a 7-5 team. I get it, I understand the reasoning and the criticisms and why one would have serious questions about how these Trojans handle the rest of this daunting second-half schedule. The defense still has everything to prove, the offensive line looks to be in shambles and the offense in general hasn't been at its peak in quite some time. So I don't begrudge anyone their opinion.

"But I think USC finds some answers, gets past Utah at home and will simply have too much offense for Cal or UCLA to match up with later. That leaves the two big games with top-10 Pac-12 favorites Washington and Oregon. The reality is USC likely just needs a split in those games. I won't get into tiebreaker scenarios until it matters, but the Huskies beat the Ducks and still have tough games ahead on the road at USC, home against Utah, on the road against a very capable Oregon State team and then a rivalry game with a feisty Washington State team that can't be discounted, as rivalry games go. And then Oregon travels to Utah, hosts USC and hosts the rival Beavers, while the fact remains that coach Dan Lanning has consistently made costly decisions in big games (like last week). So, yes, I think the Trojans have the capability of splitting those two big games and winning the others. I also think they could lose a couple more times. Hence, 50-50 on the Pac-12 hopes, I say. Washington and Oregon are the favorites to rematch in Las Vegas, but the Trojans have a path and the potential to get it done as well."

Tajwar Khandaker: "The Trojans find themselves on shaky ice, but they’re not necessarily too far behind their competitors. The loss at Notre Dame won’t count toward USC’s conference record, but every contender in the conference has already picked up a Pac-12 loss outside of Washington, who the Trojans will get a shot at in the Coliseum. Now, from a pure football perspective the question remains whether or not USC will be good enough to handle business down the difficult stretch of the season. Given the dysfunction of the past four games it’s hard to imagine so, but the talent is there. Signs of improvement on defense last week are the biggest cause for optimism. If USC can just perform adequately on that side of the ball - and it did better than that against Notre Dame -- the offense functioning at just 80% might be enough to push them through. Right now, I’d still wager Oregon and Washington are the favorites to make the title game, with USC tied with UCLA and Oregon State a tier behind."

Jeff McCulloch: "We all know that USC is still undefeated in Pac-12 play. Lincoln Riley has told us that multiple times. This week’s game against Utah is absolutely must-win if USC wants any chance of making the championship. The Trojans' embarrassing loss to Notre Dame, while out of conference, has dealt a significant setback to their perceived potential. They, however, control their destiny, but it is an uphill battle for a team that is at an ultimate low. While USC has been trending in the wrong direction as of the last few weeks, this game has a different energy and can be one where USC figures it out. Multiple players, including Caleb Williams, surely have this game circled on their schedule due to the two losses against Utah last year. This time, they are playing the Utes at home, which in the Pac-12 means everything. The offense hasn't been at its peak in a while, but the defense is going to be the ultimate question mark. If USC’s defense can play as well as it did last week, the Trojans have a chance. That’s a big 'if', though, unfortunately."

Does Caleb Williams still have a path to a second Heisman Trophy?

Tajwar: "Absolutely, he does. What we saw against Notre Dame was the worst showing of his career to date, and I seriously doubt we see that replicated. If Williams just plays to the level of the weeks before that game, which was still quite a ways from his best, his numbers will stand up with anyone in the country. And if he can do better than that, which I imagine he will, it’s a real good shot. With all that said, there will definitely be reticence on the voters’ part to give him the award twice in a row if he’s level with everyone else. Williams will have to clear the field by a good margin. I think he’ll have to take USC at least to the conference title game once again to have the best chance."

Ryan: "Sure, he does. As Tajwar noted, he's got his work cut out for him as voters will be looking for a reason to give it to someone else this time, but Heisman's are about stats and storyline. Williams should have the stats to compare with anyone in college football, and if he somehow goes from the worst game of his career to playing his best football over these next five games while willing a flawed USC team back to the Pac-12 title game (and CFP consideration), damn right he has a chance. But he has to do all those things first. I certainly wouldn't bet against him."

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