TrojanSports Roundtable: Perspective and predictions for USC-UCLA

As hard as it seems to believe now, it really was just a year ago that USC took the most embarrassing loss in a season full of them while getting blown out in the Coliseum 62-33 by none other than UCLA.

Those Trojans would, of course, finish 4-8 for the program's worst record in 30 years.

A little more than a week later, USC stunned the college football world by hiring Lincoln Riley away from Oklahoma and setting all of this in motion.

The 9-1 start, the Heisman-caliber quarterback play, the No. 7 College Football Playoff ranking, one win away from clinching a spot in the Pac-12 championship game and the very viable hopes of earning a playoff berth when it's all said and done.

All of that has happened in one year.

Riley, the architect of a turnaround that has exceeded any realistic and even most optimistic expectations, has felt the need to remind the Trojans fan base of that lately, amid grumbles about the defensive struggles or, in the moment, the slow start last week against Colorado.

It's almost as if he's making sure this long-suffering fan base is allowing itself to fully enjoy this ride his Trojans are on.

"You guys know better than me -- everybody else was here before," Riley said Monday on his Trojans Live radio appearance. "... I told the team [Monday morning] in the team meeting, it's hard to be in the position we're in right now. It's hard to get here. It's not easy no matter if you're in Year 1 or Year 15. Right now, there's whatever, 120-something college football teams and there's probably all but about, what is it, three, four, five, whatever it is that would trade places with us in a heartbeat right now. So it's not easy to do. It's a great position to be in."

Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, who has been as blunt and critical of his own unit as anybody this season, had said much of the same after the win last Friday night after delivering his latest defensive critique.

"To be 9-1 sitting here in November, never take that for granted, man. We certainly won't," he said.

On Saturday evening at 5 PT, in a sold-out Rose Bowl Stadium and before a national television audience on FOX, the Trojans face one of their toughest challenges yet this fall in an 8-2 Bruins team ranked No. 16 in the CFP and AP polls.

Had UCLA not lost last Saturday to Arizona in perhaps the biggest upset of the week in college football, this might just have been the first top-10 showdown in this rivalry series since the memorable 1988 game when USC was No. 2 in the AP poll and UCLA No. 6.

Nonetheless, this marks the first meeting where both teams have been ranked since 2014, when USC was No. 19 and UCLA No. 9 in the CFP rankings; the first time either has been in the top 10 since 2011 (when the Trojans were No. 10) and the highest combined ranking since 2005 (with USC at 1, and UCLA at 11).

Yes, USC fans should appreciate all of this -- the buildup, the unreciprocated trash talk coming only from the UCLA side right now, the national spotlight that will shine on both teams Saturday, the stakes and what's still possible, all of it.

But just think about the players who have been through the full gamut over this last year(s). The guys who were on the losing side of that drubbing by the Bruins and many others in 2021. Who played in front of sadly small crowds in the Coliseum.

To now be here just a year later?

"Crazy," fifth-year offensive lineman Justin Dedich said this week. "You talk about it all offseason, this is what we want to do, and now it's here, it's in our grasp and it's just a crazy concept to grasp. The turnaround from last year to this year is just unbelievable. I'm so grateful for this opportunity and this staff. The things they've done to this program and the way they've turned it around is unbelievable."

Said sixth-year senior center Brett Neilon: "Just talking to Lincoln, you can just tell the type of guy he is. He's confident. The first meeting, it was like, 'Here's my plan and this is what we're going to do.'"

Riley is relentlessly confident, which is why his comments -- and similar ones he's made the last couple weeks -- don't come across as him seeking credit for all of this, even though he certainly deserves all he's gotten and more.

It seems more a reminder just to make sure everybody -- fans, perhaps even his own players -- maintain perspective on what it took to get here and how special it is to now have an opportunity like the one that awaits Saturday.

"To be at this point in Year 1 kind of where it all came from, it's not an accomplishment we're going to focus on right now, but it's not something we need to forget either," Riley continued. "Yeah, we've got to focus on getting better, focus on the opportunities ahead, absolutely, but let's also not forget that. There's got to be some context to it, because what this team has done, you look across history, stuff like this doesn't happen very often."

For perspective and our predictions ahead of the clash for the Victory Bell on Saturday, let's get into the weekly TrojanSports staff roundtable ...

What do you expect from the run game and how it's utilized moving forward without Travis Dye?

Tajwar Khandaker: "Schematically, I don’t feel as though much will change. It never really appeared as though there was a particular set of plays designed for Dye, as all the Trojan running backs have handled largely the same play calls when in the game. However, as far as a matter of usage, I wouldn’t be surprised to see USC working to get Austin Jones more involved in the first half of the game than they have with Dye in recent months. Jones is a more physical, north-south runner than Dye is; you usually want to get a back like that into the flow of things early and give him a chance to inflict some wear on the defensive front early on. With that said, I’d expect each of Jones, Raleek Brown and Darwin Barlow to see important snaps over the course of the game. Brown is likely to see added work on passing downs in lieu of Dye’s work there, but his inability to pass block at this point may cause him to cede more of those snaps to Jones than he’d like. All in all, I expect USC to hand the ball off about as much as they have all year -- around 25-30 times.

Ryan Young: "I definitely don't think Austin Jones steps into the kind of workload Dye had, where he was getting the overwhelming majority of touches at the position, but I also think he's certainly up to the role. That said, I echo the concern you raised about pass-blocking. I think that was as big a factor as any in why Dye distanced himself from the early shared-backfield approach and why Jones and Raleek Brown's snaps dwindled (in addition to Brown's ankle injury). That's the area I'm going to be watching as close as any other, but I do not think there will be a major dropoff in terms of what Jones does with the ball when he gets it. He's averaging 6.4 yards per carry over his 52 rushing attempts this season. He showed it last week when he took over following Dye's injury and ran it 11 times for 74 yards with 39 receiving yards and a touchdown. He's very capable. I think everybody is hoping to see the incredibly-entertaining Brown get as much work as he can handle, and it may be the perfect time to truly unleash him as the unique offensive weapon he is. I'd also like to see what Darwin Barlow can do with more opportunities. He was rendered irrelevant all season until getting some late work last week. What I'm saying here is that I have full confidence that the run game can remain highly productive -- I just don't know what the ramifications will be in pass blocking and what adjustments that prompts Riley to make overall. My curiosity was piqued in general when Riley was asked about potential changes to how he managed the run game and responded, There will probably be some things that change, probably will be. I'm not going to get into it.' We'll see Saturday."

Jeff McCulloch: "I expect the run game to actually not change much. Likewise, I expect Austin Jones to step in and be the Travis Dye of this offense but with Raleek Brown and Darwin Barlow sprinkled in a lot more. No one can replace the talent that Dye was for this team, but still, this team needs to succeed on the ground for the pass game to be elevated. The play-action plays USC loves to use will be more valuable when they have a good run game. Use Jones in between the tackles. Use Brown for special/third-down plays. Use Barlow to be the change of pace back for both running backs. As mentioned, the big issue with the running back room is who is going to be the pass blocker. Jones has shown his issues with pass protection and so has Brown. We haven’t been able to see how Barlow performs in pass protection this fall. Pass protection is going to be a major question going forward as Dye was such a special pass blocker that could change the whole offense. Maybe they decide to use an extra tight end to stay and block instead of leaning on the running back to do that."

Riley said LB Eric Gentry and WR Mario Williams will be "available" Saturday. What are you expecting from them?

Ryan: "I feel cautiously confident that Gentry will play a meaningful role, in part because his presence makes such a pronounced difference for this defense. If he's even 70 percent back to full strength a month after his presumed ankle injury then I think they're going to give him every chance to show he can make an impact. I don't know what to make of Mario Williams. When he missed the Arizona game, it was explained as a late and unexpected scratch, that they were planning on him playing until deciding very late that he just wasn't ready. And he's now missed three games with whatever his unspecified injury is. He ran through early pregame warmups last week, looking like himself before sitting out again, albeit the nature of that pregame work is not full speed. I wouldn't be surprised if he played 5 snaps or 2/3 of the game Saturday -- I just don't know."

Tajwar: "Obviously, the primary factor at play is the actual health and readiness of the two players and I don’t know enough about their condition to make an accurate guess in that regard. On paper, however, the matter of Gentry’s return is far more critical to USC’s hopes than Williams’. For all the receiver’s talent, the Trojans have a room stocked with difference-makers at the position. At linebacker however, Gentry has proved to be irreplaceable with what the team has left on the roster behind him. Gentry was the linchpin holding down the Trojans’ front seven and anchoring the middle of the field in pass coverage; the quality of the entire defense has declined significantly since he was forced out against Utah. Even if Gentry isn’t 100%, his presence on the field would likely change a lot for this defense. Against a talented UCLA offense that thrives on running the ball and passing over the middle, whatever the Trojans can get out of that presence will likely go a long way toward giving them a shot to stymy the Bruins. I’d imagine that Gentry will be asked to play as much as he possibly can as a result, while Williams on the other hand doesn’t necessarily need to be forced back into the gameplan. Of course, at the end of the day this all depends on their actual health come Saturday."

Jeff: "I expect both to play close to normal. They NEED Eric Gentry this week to help neutralize Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet. Gentry isn’t the greatest linebacker in coverage, but DTR has not seen a middle linebacker at his size and length so just having him in the middle of the field will change the game. He will be in a rotation with Shane Lee, Ralen Goforth and probably Tuasivi Nomura. When it comes to Mario Williams, as already noted, the need for him to be healthy in this game isn’t as important as Gentry. The Trojans have shown this wide receiver cops is one of the deepest in the country and they can still be very efficient without him. But Williams' presence on the field would be comforting for Caleb Williams. Their chemistry has shown in every game they play, and in such a big game this week, that comfort would be an added asset to the QB, especially in a broken play. The frustrating part about Mario Williams is, like Ryan said, we have no clue what his injury is so it is hard to tell where he could be hampered. Best guess -- Mario Williams is probably full go and Gentry is probably going to be about 80% good to go."