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Published Dec 2, 2022
Two perspectives and predictions for the USC-Utah Pac-12 title game clash
TrojanSports Staff  •  TrojanSports
Staff

From a USC perspective, it's only fitting that it be the Utah Utes as the last team standing in the way of a Pac-12 championship and College Football Playoff berth for the Trojans.

No. 11-ranked Utah (9-3) dealt No. 4 USC (11-1) its only loss of the season back on Oct. 15, in the most agonizing of ways possible, just wearing down the Trojans' defense over the second half and taking its first lead of the game with 48 seconds left on a bold two-point conversion call.

The Trojans get their rematch Friday in the Pac-12 championship game at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas (5 p.m. PT on FOX).

To set the stage for the showdown, TrojanSports.com's Ryan Young and Ute Nation's Alex Markham traded perspectives and made their predictions.

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USC wins if ...

Ryan Young: "The last two weeks the USC defense has locked down against two elite rushing attacks, showing substantial timely progress in its main area of weakness. It may be obscured by the final score vs. UCLA, but the Trojans held Zach Charbonnet – coming off four straight games of at least 150 rushing yards – to 95 yards. And then they stifled Notre Dame to 90 total rushing yards. So if the defense can build on whatever it has unlocked in that regard the last two weeks and at least not let tight end Dalton Kincaid have another career-best performance, the Trojans should feel good about their chances. Especially with Cam Rising looking like less of a dual-threat in recent weeks while playing through his knee injury. It also wouldn’t hurt if the Trojans tapped into their penchant for forcing a big turnover or two.

"Offensively, there’s no reason to doubt Heisman favorite Caleb Williams and Co. Williams played one of his best games of the season in that loss in Salt Lake City against this Utes defense and he hasn’t let up since.

"It’s important to remember that USC was in control of that game in October before losing middle linebacker Eric Gentry – probably the second-most important player on the whole defense – and top wideout Jordan Addison to injury. (We don’t have to even get into the questionable roughing the passer penalty that turned a defensive stop into a much-needed Utes touchdown drive). The Trojans have been playing some of their best football of the season and will bring a lot of confidence into this game that they have the formula for a different outcome this time."

Alex Markham: "I want to be a smartass and say USC wins if Utah has to kick field goals — that’s a sore subject around Utah though, so let’s not talk about that.

"In reality, the Trojans win if they force more turnovers than Utah. On the season, USC has a +23 turnover margin, while Utah is +8. That’s a big difference and the Trojans lead the nation in this category. Both defenses create a ton of turnovers, with Utah just four behind USC.

"Utah’s defense has a knack for rising to the occasion at pivotal moments over the years. Look no further than Devin Lloyd’s back-breaking pick-6 in the Pac-12 championship game against Oregon last season.

"This game is very likely going to be a shootout, and Utah’s defense has upped its game in recent weeks, with Kyle Whittingham stating that the turning point was the second half against USC. The Trojans give up 87.5 yards per game more than Utah, but their “bend but don’t break” approach is working."

Utah wins if ...

Ryan Young: "The Utes will need an efficient, mistake-free game from Cam Rising and for Dalton Kincaid to be healthy and at the peak of his powers again. The Trojans still haven’t found any solutions to defending good tight ends, allowing Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer to catch 8 of 9 targets for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. That’s a concern for them.

"The Trojans thrive off their ability to force turnovers – they rank fourth nationally with 27 this season – and it’s an essential part of their defensive DNA as it offsets the big chunk plays the unit will invariably give up several times a game. If the Utes play mistake-free football, that will put a strain on the defense.

"As for stopping Caleb Williams at this point, I don’t know if that is likely, even as well as Utah has been playing defensively. The Utes will need another top-end offensive performance to win the rematch."

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